The Odds on Australia’s Next Leader

Image by Ben Thomson

With the next Australian Federal election only several years away, it seems like a good time to start betting on who our next leader will be. But who to put your hard-earned money on? We exclusively break down the odds on the likely candidates for our next Prime Minister.

Tony Abbott Odds: 1.20

Pros: We have a good idea of what kind of Prime Minister he'd be.

Cons: We have a good idea of what kind of Prime Minister he'd be.

Notes: If you like putting money on things and then having more money than you put down returned to you, then Abbott-as-our-next-PM is your best chance of this happening. You know that story about the two men who are approached by a bear and one puts his running shoes on and the first guy says "You can't outrun a bear" and the guy with the shoes says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you" ? This is basically how the two-party system works. Abbott can put asylum seekers in quasi-concentration camps, make healthcare more expensive, make education largely unaffordable, and kneecap the ABC, but so long as he can outrun Bill Shorten, he'll be fine.

Julie Bishop Odds: 3.40

Pros: Can announce leadership ambitions with "BISHOP TAKES KING".

Cons: May be beaten to pun by Bronwyn Bishop.

Notes: Julie Bishop is the only woman in Federal cabinet, which, in the words of the man we elected as Prime Minister, must make her pretty popular in the workplace! She's earned a new respect in the electorate as our Foreign Minister, and the Coalition will be eager to have her take over as leader to retroactively prove that they hounded Julia Gillard because of her policies and not because they were sexists. On the other hand, chicks be cray-cray.

Clive Palmer Odds: 7.80

Pros: Has one wish left on mummified monkey claw.

Cons: Is personally at war with China.

Notes: Clive Palmer created the Palmer United Party in 2013, and within five months had taken one seat in the House of Representatives and three in the Senate. If this trend continues, by late 2016 PUP will hold the balance of power in all levels of government as well as the judging panel of The Voice. Currently, the most likely thing that will prevent Clive from becoming PM, aside from high cholesterol, is that he may prefer to be called "Emperor", which is really just a minor issue of nomenclature. But this is a technicality any bookie worth their salt will seize upon, so be careful.

Scott Ludlam Odds: 12.10

Pros: Good at Twitter.

Cons: Bad at Uber.

Notes: Scott Ludlam is a Greens Senator who is beloved by everyone on social media, and not really known to anyone outside of that. If elections were held exclusively on Twitter, Ludlam would definitely win, forming government with that Kevin Rudd parody account, ABC News Intern and Speaker of the House Doge. Such dismissal from the chamber under standing orders 94A wow.

Craig Thomson Odds: 17.30

Pros: No longer a convict.

Cons: Employer of prostitutes.

Notes: Craig Thomson isn't actually a member of Parliament anymore, partly thanks to a minor clerical error in which he was convicted of theft and fraud. This actually may work in his favour, given our well-noted tall poppy syndrome means we are loathe to vote for anyone who hasn't been convicted of fraud/is actually eligible to become leader. In retrospect, being booted out of office with his reputation in tatters could have been a cunning tactical move.

Hillary Clinton Odds: 20.70

Pros: Has been First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State.

Cons: Doesn't appear to be able to hold down a job.

Notes: Hillary Clinton is everyone's favourite "will she or won't she?" political figure, and she's hotly tipped to win the election in 2016. In fact, she's so hotly tipped that she might win every election held in 2016. The biggest strike against her is her clear misunderstanding of Australian customs when she claimed there was "no place for sexism in politics". It's like she doesn't even understand us.

Ebola Odds: 40.20

Pros: Immigration success story.

Cons: Failure to really take hold of population.

Notes: Australia is a nation of immigrants, except for the Aborigines, and almost everyone we've elected to office has come from another country: Tony Abbott was born in England; Julia Gillard was born in Wales; Kevin Rudd was manufactured in an undisclosed location in the year 2029 and sent back in time to unsuccessfully introduce an Emissions Trading Scheme. Ebola's African roots are humble, but it came to Australia through the proper channels, refusing to jump the queue. Australians respect that, just like we respect any figure who leads from the gut.

Bill Shorten Odds: 240.60

Pros: Owns a suit.

Cons: Leader of Australian Labor Party.

Notes: There's a weird insincerity to all of Shorten's public remarks, and 89% of respondents to an exclusive Vice poll did not believe his "Hello, my name is Bill Shorten". Unless Shorten does something drastic to his image - wear a funny hat like Johnny Depp, suddenly adopt Josh Thomas' weird non-accent, punctuate every sentence with the catchphrase "Aww shucky ducky!" - he's destined to join Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Mark Latham in Labor's Hall of Improbable Leaders. On the plus side, a bet of one dollar on Shorten will pay out enough to build a door-to-door high-speed rail network connecting absolutely everyone in Australia. I'd recommend keeping the dollar.

Follow the author on Twitter: @leezachariah

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