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Phillip Smyth: The United States has pushed that we wanted a more inclusive government in Baghdad, one that would be accepting of Sunni, Shiite, and the multitude of minority groups. Frankly, the Iraqi government has become a Shiite-dominated institution. Don't get me wrong; many of these Shiites were democratically elected. However, there is a project going on where certain ministries, in almost a feudalistic form, have taken control through very sectarian Shiite parties, and Sunnis feel very, very left out. This allows for the growth of ISIS. I think a lot of people tend to ignore that factor.Think about this: Iraqi Sunni tribes normally would not have gone over to what was then AQI, Al Qaeda in Iraq. They fought alongside them, but then they got sick of them and joined the Sahwa Movement (the "Sunni Awakening"). Then, all of a sudden, ISIS is gaining lots and lots of popularity because there are these grievances in the Sunni community with the Shiite government. And those were never really addressed.
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There is no way anyone can deny that Iran has not only guided but controlled the flow of fighters for the most part, and it doesn't mean they weren't working with Assad. They altered the narrative of the war. I mean, how do you get Shiite jihadist foreign fighters to go to Syria? First, they manufactured a need for this holy war, where Iran was very big on promoting a defensive jihad, of defending Shiite holy sites in Syria against Sunni extremists, in particular the golden-domed Sayyeda Zainab shrine. And it resonated with a lot of people. They understood the romantic pull it would have on many.Then there is the Hezbollah influence. And you have Iraqi Shiite forces that have direct ties to other Iranian proxies: Ketaib Hezbollah; the Badr Organization; Asaib Ahl al-Haqq. All of these fighters were showing up and it's most certainly not an organic move. I think there is some level of genuine volunteering. But we are talking about a recruitment program that is huge. Iran is in the background leading this, filtering in fighters not just from Iraq, but from Afghanistan and other "exotic" locales.
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It depends on the Shiite militia. But if we are talking about these Iranian direct proxy groups, it's a monumental threat. And I say that because they demonstrated a very sophisticated manner of being able to attack American and coalition forces when they were still occupying Iraq. They have advanced weaponry, advanced tactics; they have a state backer. Beyond that, they have their own radical extremist ideology, which is highly anti-American. But then there is another long-term goal. If American policy is to build a more inclusive Baghdad and pull Sunnis out of the clutches of ISIS, what happens when the main forces on the ground executing attacks against ISIS, and by extension the Sunni community, are these radical and sectarian and extremist Shiite groups? That doesn't really build much consensus. It hurts the long-term policy.
This is a huge problem. And I think it goes beyond Iraq just having a functional security force. Because you have to remember, when we are talking about Shiite militia groups, many of them have not only infiltrated but now control large sections of the security forces.
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I have a number of social media profiles where I follow Shiite militias. In the past month and a half I don't think there's been a single day where I've not seen a video or a photograph showing some kind of abuse, what we'd call a human rights violation, or possibly a war crime going on on camera. And most would respond: Who cares. It's happening to an ISIS guy and he deserves it. But we don't even know who that is. We don't know if it's an ISIS guy. It could be some Sunni villager.How do the West's Sunni Arab allies view the rise of the Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq?
They view this as a long-term regional power struggle. And it's eroding our alliances with them. They are scared about what's going to happen when the militia guns eventually turn on them.Follow Hamza Shaban on Twitter.