The Confusing Crimea Situation Is About to Get Clearer or Uglier

Events in Crimea and Ukraine are entering a new phase this weekend. As residents of Crimea voted in a referendum about its future disposition, Ukrainian troops stuck in Crimea are now facing an uncertain fate, and tensions between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian citizens are flaring in cities throughout eastern Ukraine.

Today in Crimea people voted in a referendum on the country’s future disposition, deciding overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation outright, rather than remain in Ukraine. According to preliminary results today, with 50 percent of ballots counted, 95.5 percent voted in favor of joining Russia, local officials said. Referendum commission chairman Mykhail Malyshev said 3.5 percent had voted to remain in Ukraine, and 1 percent were "spoiled ballots," AFP reported.

Ever since Russian forces spread throughout the peninsula in late February, seizing key objectives, Crimea has functionally not been part of Ukraine. Although many in the West and in Ukraine don’t recognize the legitimacy of this election, the referendum will provide an aura of legitimacy, clarity, and legality to the actual situation in Crimea.

Polls opened on Sunday, March 16, in the Ukrainian region of Crimea.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces stationed in Crimea have held out and refused to turn control of their installation over to the Russian troops, and local Crimean authorities that have been pressuring them to leave. The newly-formed and still-shaky Ukrainian government in Kiev has apparently been unable to effectively direct the armed forces, particularly those still in Crimea. And the status of Ukrainian bases and forces in Crimea may grow even more confusing and precarious, given the results of today’s referendum.

On Thursday, Ukrainian commanders of the Belbek military installation took their appeal for clear orders directly to the internet, posting a video requesting clearer directions from their commanders and the government in Kiev.

Yuly Mamchur appealed on March 13 for clear, new and formal instructions by his nation’s defense ministry.

While these events play out in Crimea, tensions continue to increase in the heavily Russian eastern parts of Ukraine, where pro-Russian protests continue. Pro-Russian protestors have been very supportive of the Russian annexation of Crimea, and have even asked for Russia to annex more of eastern Ukraine. These protests have, in some cases, grown violent and resulted in fatalities.

A large pro-Russia rally took place in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on March 16

The combined effect of these events is uncertain. In one scenario, finalizing Russian annexation of Crimea could mark the end of current crisis. But solidification of the Russian position in Crimea could merely mark the beginning of a larger campaign to seize control of much more Ukrainian territory. It is still too early to know, with certainty, how the situation will develop, but it is certain that the international community will continue monitoring events very closely.

Check out more of VICE News' coverage: Russian Roulette: Dispatches From the Invasion of Ukraine