The Upcoming Leadership Spill: An Explainer

Having just finished celebrating his two-year anniversary as Prime Minister of Australia, Tony Abbott's time might be up. The Minister for Communications and member for Wentworth, Malcolm Turnbull, has resigned his cabinet position and informed Abbott he intendeds to challenge for leadership of the Liberal Party.

Abbott has been dogged by consistently poor polling of both his leadership and his party's chances at an election, highlighted most recently by a predicted 11.8 percent swing against the Coalition in the Canning by-election.

The rules for a leadership spill in the Liberal Party are pretty straightforward. Any member of the Senate or House of Representatives can request one, and with the support of any other member, call to elect a new leader. Should the motion be passed (a simple majority is all that's required) the party leadership is declared vacant.

At this point a new vote is held, and members can come forth to declare their candidacy. If there is only one candidate they are automatically elected leader. If two, the member who wins a majority of votes becomes leader. The Prime Minister can also forgo a vote on whether or not their position is declared vacant and go directly to a leadership ballot.

Indeed, this is what seems to be happening. In breaking news Abbott has hinted he will do this, saying, " There will be a party room ballot for both the leadership and deputy leadership positions later this evening. I will be a candidate and I expect to win."

Of course, today's events have come after a recent history of leadership spills. Here's how we got to this point.

September 15, 2008: Turnbull becomes leader of the Liberal Party, ousting the deeply unpopular Brendan Nelson by 45 votes to 41. Nelson, who had scored as low as 9 percent in preferred PM polls, tried to get the upper hand by calling the spill while Turnbull was overseas.

December 1, 2009: Ostensibly due to his desire to amend but ultimately pass Rudd's Emissions Trading Scheme, but really due to his ideological sympathy for the left, the party voted to declare the position of leader vacant. At this point three candidates presented themselves: Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, and Malcolm Turnbull. Hockey, who had not expected Turnbull to contest, was ousted in the first vote and the party voted between Turnbull and Abbott. Abbott won by a single vote, 42-41.

August 21, 2010: A federal election is held, with Abbott and Gillard as the leaders of the two major parties. The Coalition won 49.88 percent of the two party preferred vote while each party won 72 seats in the House of Representatives. Abbott fails to convince the minor party members to endorse his government, so Gillard and Labor form a minority government with 76 seats to the Coalition's 74.

September 18, 2013: Tony Abbott is elected Prime Minister, campaigning against a Labor party suffering from its own debilitating leadership issues.

February 8, 2015: After a widely ridiculed 2014 budget, questionable moments of leadership (shirtfronting Putin, knighting Prince Philip), and a derailed legislative agenda, many in the Liberal Party are dissatisfied with Abbott. Abbott's cabinet tacitly supports him but West Australian MP Luke Simpkins requests a spill motion against the Prime Minister and is seconded by fellow West Australian Don Randall. The motion to declare the leadership vacant fails 61-39. Abbott prevailed having asked for a second chance, and having promised to consult more frequently with his fellow party members.

April 8, 2015: Abbott announces a national taskforce dedicated to tackling the "Ice Epidemic". This and other smaller pieces of government legislation seemingly stabilise the polls after the February spill motion.

August 17, 2015: The Speaker issues the writ for the Canning by-election. Polls haven't improved and Abbott's leadership continues to be questioned so the media hits upon the by-election as a sort of de-facto test of Abbot's strength.

August 18, 2015: First polling on the Perth seat of Canning by-election suggests a huge swing against the Coalition.

August 23, 2015: A Galaxy poll is bad news for Abbott, revealing opinions of his leadership might again be on a downward trend. A damning 63 percent of those polled say they are dissatisfied with his performance and only 30 percent say they're satisfied. Labor also holds a healthy two party preferred lead, 54 percent to 46.

September 14, 2015: Final week of the Canning by-election polls still predict a healthy Labor swing. So a day short of seven years since Abbott and Turnbull battled for leadership of the Liberal Party, the Minister for Communications resigns his cabinet position and announces his intention to challenge the sitting Prime Minister.

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