Update, 9:32: Huckabee is out.
I am officially suspending my campaign. Thank you for all your loyal support. — Gov. Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee)February 2, 2016
Update, 9:21: From Grace Wyler:"At Hillary Clinton's caucus night party, at Drake University in Des Moines, there is some grumbling among supporters that the campaign staff strung them along tonight, holding them outside the event for more than two hours while the 'family and friends' line was ushered in."'They had another separate line, one that they wouldn't let us go in, for people who had money, I guess, the fundraisers, that was let in,' Blaine Milligan, a 27-year-old volunteer from St. Louis said, calling me over to ask if he could tell me his complaint. 'And they're telling all these people who were disabled, who were freezing, they just told them to go to the other side of the building. It's ridiculous, it's what Bernie Sanders is talking about. It's class warfare.'
Update, 9:03: No word on the state of his clothes, but former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley is officially out of the race. (Correction: Not quite official yet, but there doesn't seem to be any doubt.) He had been polling in the low single digits for a long time and had less than 1 percent of the Iowa vote tonight, so this isn't exactly a surprise. The Democratic campaign is officially a two-person race.
Update, 8:54: Wait, but couldn't he just do laundry on the road? Or buy a set of new outfits with his neurosurgery and shady nutritional supplement money?
Update, 8:42: Earlier tonight, Ben Carson announced that he was going back home to Florida instead of heading to New Hampshire like the rest of the candidates presumably will:
Carson's campaign has been a mess lately, his poll numbers have declined, and his last debate performance culminated in him saying, "Putin is a one-horse country: oil, and energy," so many assumed that he was dropping out of the race. Not so, says his campaign:Ben Carson will likely speak at his victory party in Iowa before caucus results are in so he can catch a flight.
— Chris Moody (@moody)February 2, 2016
When you issue a press release that says 1) You aren't quitting even though everyone thinks you probably should and 2) You have been wearing dirty clothes, things aren't going very well for you.Carson campaign statement: Not suspending campaign; 'Dr. Carson needs to go home and get a fresh set of clothes' — BuzzFeed News (@BuzzFeedNews)February 2, 2016
Update, 8:25: It's still early in the night, but so far nothing too unexpected has happened—beyond a huge influx of first-time caucus-goers, that is. On the GOP side, Cruz is beating Trump 30 to 27, with Rubio at 18, Carson around 10, Paul at 4, and no one else worth mentioning. For the Democrats, Clinton has a slim 51–48 lead over Sanders.Fewer than 50 percent of precincts for either side have reported, however, and the larger caucuses always take longer to count, meaning they come in later in the evening. Some of them are moving particularly slowly: Where Grace Wyler is, they haven't gotten past the speechmaking portion of the evening.
Update, 8:04: "Every speech was fairly timid and by the numbers at first," writes Mike Pearl. "A man named Wayne Wiley said of Santorum, 'The Iran sanctions bill was written by Rick Santorum, and was just lifted by our president.' C.D. Davidsmeyer, speaking on behalf of Rubio, said he 'will reverse Obama's disastrous legacy' and 'destroy our enemies,' then touted Rubio's 'unmatched ability to inspire Americans.' Nancy Boyd said of Bush that he's 'not a teardown leader but a builder,' and liked that he 'described himself as a leader with a servant's heart.' Scott Tindall spoke for Cruz, calling him 'courageous, that [he] had to stand against party leadership many times.'"There didn't seem to be any more speeches, then Sally Lubavs, a woman in her 70s, stood up in the back and went on an absolute tear about Trump."She'd been through World War II, she said, and she knew the danger of foreign powers. Some of them, she said, 'seem like they might be scared of him.' Trump, she pointed out, was head and shoulders above those members of Congress who were running who—she couldn't remember exactly who—had said they were too busy running to vote. 'As an educator, if I didn't show up to do my job, I wouldn't get paid. So think about it,' she said. The room erupted in applause."
73 for Trump
61 for Cruz
52 for Rubio
21 for Carson
12 for Paul
11 for Jeb!
Update, 7:12: From VICE Politics Editor Grace Wyler:"I'm at Roosevelt High School, where three Democratic precincts (and one Republican) are meeting. It's packed, and the precincts are separated into three rooms: the auditorium, the library, and the cafeteria. Anecdotally, the Bernie vs. Hillary split seems about even; they're having a lot of fun in the library. The Bernie side just erupted into cheers and now they're heckling their friends on the Hillary side."They've run out of registration forms. Brian Jennings, the caucus chair for this precinct, said that he just got off the phone with the Democratic Party and the Secretary of State is allowing people to register on plain white sheets of paper. A volunteer just walked in with stacks of printer paper."And from Mike Pearl, at a Republican caucus in Urbandale:"According to caucus chief Lisa Fox, they've unexpectedly run out of registration forms too, and they're delaying the start of speeches. She called it 'a good problem to have.' This could bode well for Trump, who is thought to be relying on first-time caucus-goers."
Update, 6:45 PM: Writer Mike Pearl is at New Hope Assembly of God, a megachurch-ish congregation in Urbandale. One of the pastors at the church—who refused to give me his name—stormed out as Mike entered and loudly—and jokingly—announced that he was a "compassionate conservative" and would not be caucusing for "evil Trump."
Update, 5:45 PM: With just a couple of hours to go, Rand Paul's campaign office is buzzing, reports Politics Editor Grace Wyler. Tables are filled with young, mostly male, volunteers making last-minute calls. Every minute or so, one of them gets up and rings an American-flag print cowbell, informing the room that they've gotten confirmation from another voter who's planning to caucus for Rand Paul tonight. At random intervals, the whole room bursts in to cheers.The excitement may seem overblown, given that Paul is still trailing in the polls, and had 5 percent support in the most recent Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll. But his campaign is hopeful that they can turn out the so-called Liberty Caucus—the libertarian-leaning Republican voters who came out in surprising numbers to support Ron Paul in 2012. Ron Paul himself was in Iowa this weekend, ginning up the faithful at a rally at the University of Iowa Sunday night."We're hopeful and confident Rand will have a top-tier finish," Doug Stafford, Paul's chief strategist told me. Although, he added, "We're not sure what that looks like yet."
Update, 5:25 PM: When VICE writer Mike Pearl showed up at Ted Cruz's headquarters in an an anonymous office park on the edge of Des Moines, the excitement was palpable: Cruz's personal bus had just showed up!
Update, 5:08 PM: So, wait, what actually is a "caucus"? We explained this in our VICE Guide to the Iowa Caucuses, but here's the gist:Republicans get together in one of 1,681 precinct caucus events; attendees who are hyped about one candidate in particular speak on his or her behalf. Then everyone votes by writing a name on a piece of paper, then the votes are counted in the room and reported by app to party officials; delegates are awarded proportionately.
Update, 4:45 PM: A few hours before the caucuses commence, it's worth thinking about an outcome that just a couple months ago seemed unthinkable: What if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa? The self-described democratic socialist already holds a solid lead in New Hampshire, and if he won both early primary states it would give him a heck of a lot of momentum.Hillary Clinton supporters have emphasized how organized her campaign is, with former Iowa senator Tom Harkin, a Clinton backer, telling the Washington Post, "We have 1,681 precincts in Iowa, and Hillary has a precinct captain in each one. Obama only had about 1,200 of them covered [in 2008, when he beat Clinton]… Yes, Sanders has a strong message and a strong persona, so the tide maybe went to him early on. But the tide has come back our way."
In the end, it will all likely come down to turnout. Sanders's biggest lead is among the 18-to-44 crowd, with a new Quinnipiac poll showing him with a 74 to 23 percent lead over Clinton among that group. The problem is, though young people generate a lot of online enthusiasm, it's notoriously hard to get them out to the ballot box. There are a lot of challenges Sanders will face on the way to becoming president, but getting out the youth vote is a big one. A victory in Iowa wouldn't just show he is a viable candidate, it would demonstrate that he has a chance to be the long-awaited figure who can turn kids into voters—the political equivalent of turning lead into gold.Sanders understands the importance of this. "We will win tonight if the voter turnout is high," the candidate said at his headquarters earlier today, as reported by VICE News. "We will struggle tonight is the voter turnout is low. So what our job is today is to make sure we have the highest voter turnout possible. That happens, we win. Let's go get 'em.""We will win tonight if the voter turnout is high… We will struggle tonight is the voter turnout is low. So what our job is today is to make sure we have the highest voter turnout possible. That happens, we win. Let's go get 'em."
—Bernie Sanders
Update, 4:10 PM: Politics Editor Grace Wyler just showed up at the Des Moines Sanders campaign HQ. Things are "chaotic" in advance of the caucuses, she says.
Also, Jesus Christ look at this thing:Bernie Sanders campaign clearing out Des Moines headquarters: 'We want everyone on the streets!' — grace wyler (@grace_lightning)February 1, 2016
Terrifying oil painting in Sanders' campaign office — grace wyler (@grace_lightning)February 1, 2016
Update, 3:30 PM: Kid Rock, the multiplatinum recording artist whose songs are mostly him yelling his own name over guitar riffs, said in a Rolling Stone interview published Monday that he supported Trump. "I'm digging Trump," the singer, who supported the Republicans in 2012, said. "I feel like a lot of people, whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, feel like if you get Hillary or Bernie, or you get Rubio or Cruz or whoever, there's going to be the same shit.""I'm not an expert at political science or anything," added Kid Rock.The candidate with the most support in the famous musician demographic is unquestionably Sanders, who's been endorsed by Killer Mike, sang onstage with members of the Dirty Projectors and Vampire Weekend, and is being supported by a benefit at the Ace Hotel in LA headlined by the Red Hot Chili Peppers. But Trump is racking up an impressive lineup of celebrity supporters, including, um, for instance:
Ok so, I think I'm ready to admit that I'm going to vote for Donald Trump.
— azealiabanks (@AZEALIABANKS)February 1, 2016
Update, 3:10 PM: Judging by the polls, Marco Rubio is destined to finish third on the Republican side, and his campaign has been working to make sure everyone knows that's exactly where he wants to be. As the New York Times Magazine reports:
Update, 2:20 PM: VICE Politics Editor Grace Wyler is at the Des Moines Clinton field office, a set of nondescript office suites on a commercial strip just off I-80. The mood is tense, as you'd expect with the caucuses just hours away. A handful of volunteers sat stoically in one room, making final calls to Hillary supporters to be certain that they actually turn up to the caucuses tonight.
Update, 1 PM: VICE News is on the ground in Iowa as well, and its latest documentary is about the immigration debate, which has become one of the most important issues of the campaign. "The number of Latinos in Iowa has doubled in the last decade, but they're not just flocking to Des Moines and other urban centers," VICE News reports. "Immigration has radically transformed the state's rural heartland, which was once lily-white. Fueled by the meatpacking industry's demand for cheap labor, small towns like Storm Lake now have schools with student bodies that are 82 percent non-white."To get insight into how this is affecting the political scene and the state as a whole, VICE News followed young undocumented activist Kenia Calderon and took a trip to the most diverse school in Iowa. Watch the full documentary below:
Update, 12:30 PM local time: Adding to the apocalyptic winter-is-coming vibe of this presidential campaign, a winter storm is set to sweep across Iowa just after the caucuses. It's not clear whether this will affect the vote at all—common sense would say that if you're one of the few partisans devoted enough to spend a Monday night casting a ballot in some church basement or school gym, the possibility of having to drive through some snow on the way home won't deter you.
It's Caucus day in Iowa!Those are the most exciting and sometimes horrifying five words in the English language for presidential candidates, campaign workers, and to some degree, yeah, the people of Iowa. VICE is here to witness Iowa's first-in-the-nation primary process, and we'll be watching the campaigns gear up, and talking to caucus-goers as they take part in a strange and beautiful local custom that holds disproportional importance in deciding the leader of the free world. Check back for updates all day and into the night.