Warner Bros Will Release All Its 2021 Films On a Streaming Platform

Warner Bros has announced that it will be releasing its entire 2021 slate – a including Dune, Matrix 4 and Judah and the Black Messiah – on streaming platform HBO Max the same time they come out in cinemas. According to its press release, this represents “a strategic response to the impact of the ongoing global pandemic”. 

Whatever the motivation, it’s an unprecedented move that could have a profound and lasting impact on the film industry.

Why exactly is this such a disruption? In order to maximise profits, films are normally released at the cinema first, then a few months later become available to buy or rent. Only then – usually eight months after a theatrical release – do they start to appear on cable channels or streaming platforms (and, later, regular TV). This is based around an economic principle called “price discrimination”, which ensures that people who want to see a film first will pay the highest premium for it, while people who aren’t that bothered might catch it for free a year later while flicking through channels on a Sunday evening.

Streaming platforms like Netflix, which regularly releases films on its own player the same day they arrive at cinemas, have already disrupted the “window” model, encouraging a backlash from high-profile directors like Christopher Nolan in the process. Lots of people in the film industry place a great deal of importance on physical cinemas and treat any attempt at diminishing their power with hostility and suspicion.

For example, Parasite director Bong Joon-ho’s 2017 film Okja became the first ever film to get booed at Cannes (for being produced by Netflix) while also receiving a standing ovation (for being a good film). While it’s not entirely unprecedented, then, Warner’s 2021 plan is the first time that a traditional major studio has disregarded the “window” system in this way. With the rise of Netflix and Amazon Prime, the idea that it should exist at all seems to many increasingly unjustifiable.

For obvious reasons, cinema chains have strongly resisted this change. They want films to play exclusively at theatres for as long as possible, thus maximising the number of people who will pay for a ticket. Far fewer people will stump up the cost of entry if they can watch a new film at home, immediately, and most likely for cheaper. In the States, prior to the pandemic, cinema attendance had been declining for years. Many are concerned that this latest move could spell disaster for an industry already in crisis.

Hollywood journalist Ben Fritz tweeted, “Warner does not believe the movie theater business will be back to normal until at least 2022 and in the meantime, it's prioritizing the growth of HBO Max.” While it’s bad news for the American cinema industry, according to Fritz, the majority of box office profits are made overseas (China recently overtook the States to become the biggest market for Hollywood films), meaning “the cinema business is hardly being dealt a deadly blow”.

It’s traditionally been thought that if a film isn’t released at the cinema, it could have a kind of cheapening “straight to video” effect and lessen its cultural impact. But according to Fritz, this won’t necessarily be the case here: “The fact that new Warner movies will only be on HBO Max for a month makes them more of a cultural event. We'll all be watching and talking about them at the same time, as with a theatrical release. You can't just put it on your queue and watch whenever, as you can on Netflix.”

But it does suggest that the balance of power has shifted away from cinemas. Prior to this announcement, the issue has been something the studios and cinema chains could wrestle over, with concessions being made on either side. This decision, however, seems completely unilateral and in Warner’s favour. “Negotiations are all about leverage,” Fritz tweeted. “And since Warner is willing to forego box office in order to grow HBO Max, US theater chains like AMC have… pretty much none. They can take what Warner gives them or stand on principle and get nothing.”

As such, Odeon’s owner, AMC, is now in “urgent talks” with Warner about the decision. A spokesperson accused Warner Bros of subsiding HBO Max (both companies are owned by conglomerate AT&T): “We will do all in our power to ensure that Warner does not do so at our expense. We will aggressively pursue economic terms that preserve our business. We have already commenced an immediate and urgent dialogue with the leadership of Warner on this subject."

These are strong words, but if AMC had the power to influence the decision, it seems unlikely Warner would have made it in the first place.

As it stands, this is a US-specific policy. What, if anything, does it mean for cinema-goers in the UK? “I think it’s huge news,” said one London-based cinema industry professional, who asked to remain anonymous. “The US dictates everything, so while it’s only happening there right now, that will undoubtedly influence at least Warner Bros in the UK, but most likely all studios.”

While Warner is framing this decision as a temporary, COVID-related measure, it could be the case that there’s no going back. “They’re saying at the moment that it’s for these few releases only but once the window is broken I think it might be quite tough to put the genie back in the bottle,” said the industry professional. “Especially as this is a move people have been pushing for for ages.”

If there’s one positive outcome of the policy, it might mean that cinemas have to pay less money to show blockbusters: “Right now, studio films also have really high terms for cinemas - which is especially difficult for independent cinemas – so I wonder if multiplexes would try to demand lower terms, which could benefit indies, too. It might make show times more flexible, too. If cinemas wouldn’t have to commit to 14 days of all shows, as studios currently demand, this would also greatly benefit indies who don’t have the same screen space as multiplexes.”

Whatever happens, Warner’s announcement is likely to alter the cinema industry in a way there’s no coming back from.