How Russia Used the War in Ukraine to ‘Occupy’ Another Neighbouring Country

The Belarusian dictator’s complicity in letting his country be used by Russia to attack Ukraine has effectively turned Belarus into a Russian client state and amounts to an occupation, the country’s opposition says.

Belarus, which borders both Russia and Ukraine, has been used by the Kremlin to launch missile strikes and send in ground troops since the attack began on February the 24th. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has long had strong ties to the Kremlin but has become increasingly reliant on Russian patronage since claiming victory in rigged presidential elections in August 2020, which left him facing mass protests and crippling international sanctions.

Most Belarusians are strongly against the invasion, and Lukashenko’s complicity has further diminished the country’s sovereignty, says a senior official in Belarus’s exiled opposition.

“Belarusians do not support this war, they oppose it categorically. But unfortunately our country is essentially under occupation by Russia,” Valery Kavaleuski, foreign affairs representative for Belarus’s exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, told VICE World News.

“The regime itself is not calling the shots any longer, they do what Russians tell them to do.”

Kavaleuski is based in Vilnius, Lithuania, where Tsikhanouskaya has been since running against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential elections. The EU, US and other countries refused to accept the election result as legitimate. Tsikhanouskaya calls herself the legitimate national leader of Belarus.

Lukashenko is “an obvious puppet” of the Kremlin, Kavaleuski said.

“He serves a foreign nation at the detriment of Belarusian interests and jeopardises our sovereignty.”

It’s an assessment increasingly shared by Western officials. Last month, a US defence official told The Guardian that Minsk was “now an extension of the Kremlin,” while the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said Lukashenko was allowing his country to become a Russian satellite state.

Four days after the invasion began, Lukashenko held a rigged referendum that, among other changes, cleared the way for the country to host Russian nuclear weapons, which had been removed from the country after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Lukashenko, a former collective farm boss who routinely parades his teenage son in military uniform, is isolated and the subject of international sanctions. He relies on his repressive state apparatus to tamp down on wide ranging opposition to his rule at home, and has long nurtured a subordinate relationship with the Kremlin. 

But now, both the Belarus opposition and independent observers say that the events of recent weeks have tightened the Kremlin’s grip over Minsk.

The invasion was preceded by a huge joint military exercise beginning on February the 10th, when Russia moved 30,000 troops, surface-to-air missile systems and fighter jets on to Belarusian territory. Most of the hardware was positioned near the Ukraine border. 

The troops were supposed to return to Russia on February the 20th. But instead, the military announced that the drills were being extended. Four days later, the invasion began.

“They never left, because it was a preparation for the war,” said Kavaleuski. “From that point on, it was obvious that Lukashenko is being controlled.”

Belarus watchers agree. 

“It’s brought Belarus even further under Russia’s control,” Eleanor Bindman, a senior lecturer in politics at Manchester Metropolitan University, told VICE World News.

“Lukashenko knows full well that his regime will stand or fall based on the position of the Russian government, so it really ties him to the Putin regime.”

Lukashenko, who for years has made public assurances that Ukraine would never face aggression from Belarusian soil, is well aware of the overwhelming public sentiment at home against the war, which has been expressed in anti-war protests across the country. 

In his public statements, Lukashenko has tried to downplay his involvement, claiming he has no plans to intervene on Russia’s side, said Kavaleuski.

“He omits the facts that Belarus is used to attack Ukraine and this has provided Russia with a significant military advantage,” he said. “He says he wishes well to Ukrainians but at the same time he’s burning cities. He’s an accomplice to the crimes against the Ukrainian people.”

But there have been warnings, including from US defence officials, that Belarus could be preparing to send in its own troops, and even claims by Ukraine, denied by Lukashenko, that Belarusian troops have crossed the border. Earlier this month, Tsikhanouskaya posted a video on Twitter calling on Belarusian soldiers who might find themselves deployed in Ukraine to “change sides and join the Ukrainian troops.”

The video also outlined the ways in which Belarusians were working to help Ukraine defend itself against the invasion, from forming volunteer battalions fighting in Ukraine, to sabotaging railway tracks to disrupt military supplies, to cyber attacks on the state railway system.

Even members of Tsikhanouskaya’s office have taken up arms as volunteers in Ukraine, Kavaleuski said, adding that the numbers of volunteers were growing by the day.

“This is expanding and growing and we definitely will offer all out support for people who want to join the fight for Ukrainian independence,” he said.