Another Summer, Another La Niña

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has done it again – for the third year in a row. 

It’s official: this summer, Australia is set to welcome another slippery and wet season (and not in a good way) with the return of a third La Niña weather system in as many years. 

But the good news, perhaps, is that the BOM has declared that this La Niña may be shorter and less profuse than its predecessors, peaking during spring and returning to relatively neutral conditions by early 2023. 

LA NIÑA: A (VERY RECENT) HISTORY

A La Niña event is said to happen every three to seven years, and results from the natural cycle of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Stronger-than-usual trade winds change the ocean surface currents and bring cooler, deep water up from below. 

At the same time, warmer water amasses around the pacific and northern point of Australia, and, as a result, the warmer ocean temperatures create a favourable environment for rainfall. 

Though La Niña events have occurred in the previous millennium – and before the world became blatantly aware of the rising temperatures associated with global warming – scientists have warned that greenhouse gas emissions may contribute to more frequent and intense La Niña’s in the future. 

Experts also say that while two La Niña’s in a row are not uncommon, a third is unusual.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS SUMMER: 

Last year, Australia saw devastating flooding that resulted in the displacement of communities across the east coast. Towns like NSW’s Lismore saw multiple bouts across the summer season, even as they were often described as “one in 1,000 year” floods. Cities like Sydney also recorded their wettest Summer in 30 years, leading to mold ridden houses and damaged infrastructure. Disaster payments billowed out across the nation as a resulting housing crisis was depicted in the near future.

While the BOM has stated that the “majority of models predict an easing of the La Niña in early 2023, suggesting a relatively short-lived event,” flooding may still be imminent across the east coast.

With dams and catchments already at their boiling points as a result of the last two years, additional rain could lead to overflowing. 

But at this point it’s impossible to predict how much rainfall will occur during this time.

In better news though, the chances of a widespread fire season are at a low.

WHAT CAN YOU DO?

Though rain and flood fatigue is now etched across the east coast, it pays to always be prepared. While the State Emergency Service (SES) has an extensive list of do’s and don’ts in their arsenal, the principal take-aways are to identify whether you’re in a flood affected area, know where your local evacuation points are and know who to call. 

While owning a boat or some other water adjacent vehicle is the epitome of preparation, an emergency flood kit with the essentials: clothes, food and water, also makes sense.

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