NHL Playoff Picks: Jonah from Fucked Up Vs. a Southern Stathead: Round II, Part II

If you’re just joining us, I once asked America, in no uncertain terms, where it gets off having any kind of opinion on hockey. And, in an effort to take the high ground, I strategically conceded that the people of my country, Canada, have no business in the bedrooms of the United States hardcore scene.

Will the chickens come home to roost upon me and my big mouth? They will if Sam Page, an American hockey-stats wonk and a Nashville Predators blogger, correctly predicts the outcomes of more series than does Jonah Falco, a Canadian musician and hardcore intellectual best known for his work in Fucked Up. If Jonah, who is indifferent to hockey and is basing his predictions on his record collection, comes out on top, then, the way I see it, I’ll have carte blanche to make any generalization I feel like making from today until doomsday.

At the conclusion of Round 1, the scoresheet showed six correct predictions for Sam versus five for Jonah. There remain seven series to be decided. Plenty of time yet.

VICE: OK, the top-seeded Rangers have to play the Capitals, who, to the surprise of pretty much everyone, beat the Bruins in seven games. Are the Rangers next to be upset?
Sam: You might ask, “How can the Capitals possibly beat the Rangers?” One answer may be Caps goalie Braden Holtby, who was stellar against Boston in Round 1. But Holtby regressed in game one. And it’s hard to imagine he’ll really outduel Henrik Lundqvist.

The Caps hope their superstar offensive players—Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin, and Mike Green—can steal a game with a timely goal. Ovechkin in particular can do that. But it’s doubtful, since he played just 13 minutes; he’s no longer as dominant.

The Caps didn’t generate many shots this season (just 28 per game), so the Rangers defense will seem especially suffocating. Both purport to play a similar defensive style, but only one has the personnel and coaching to pull it off. Rangers in six.

Jonah: OK, I have a lot to say about this series. This is like a confluence of events that's happened once before, although in this case it's not all happening at the same time. We're talking about New York versus DC, which when you think about hardcore—that's a classic rivalry. But this makes me think that, because there's a West Coast team in the mix—and I'm going to say that LA is going to be there in the end—that means LA could quite possibly be coming to either DC or New York. And the last time that LA, DC, and New York met was when Fear played on Saturday Night Live. Now, let's see if I can reason this out strictly through the kind of moronic logic that I like. Here's what I know: Fear once played SNL and Ian Mackaye said "New York sucks" into the microphone, alongside guys from Antidote, and Raybeez. Interestingly, John Brannon [of Negative Approach] was also there, and Detroit is nowhere near this conversation, so maybe that doesn't bode well for my predictions.

DC and New York are fighting in the pit over who gets to go on and take a shot at LA. This is all a perfect analogy for the series. Remember that during the set Fear disses New York—they play "New York's Alright if You Like Saxophones." That's a strike against New York if the Rangers end up winning. DC has more face time—Ian MacKaye, his brother, Alec. I'm pretty sure Ian gets on stage at one point, dancing. But, even so, we're not sure who wins the pit battle. At the end, though, someone from New York throws a pumpkin, and the footage ends. So New York essentially prevails for having stopped the broadcast.

I think, because Saturday Night Live was on home turf and because there's more of a legend about the New Yorkers there that night, the Rangers will win the series. Even though Washington has more of a powerful offensive team, they have more star power because of Ovechkin, and they therefore get more face time, the Rangers are an institution and, in that Fear-set scenario which is dictating my decision, New York and the institutions representing it came out in the end.

VICE: It's true. DC was in the studio that night at the pleasure of John Belushi.
Jonah: Exactly. After this series DC will go off and do their own thing. They're going to have Revolution Summer, but New York, through grit, will come out on top. But that pumpkin could mean trouble when they play LA.

VICE: The Devils did the expected thing and beat the Panthers, but it wasn't easy. They play the Flyers, who embarrassed the Penguins, one of the league's flashiest teams. Who's taking this one?
Sam: After passing the Penguins, everything else should be a cakewalk, right? Maybe, but Philly won’t score 30 goals in six games again. New Jersey, as usual, was one of the best defensive teams during the regular season. At even strength, they allowed the fewest shots per game (26.8) in the Eastern Conference; shorthanded, they had the league’s most efficient kill, 89.6 percent.

All that defense just masks the very old Martin Brodeur. Anton Volchenkov, New Jersey’s best defenseman, has struggled in the playoffs. Ilya Kovalchuk has a lingering back injury and the Devils don’t seem to have the firepower to match up with a potent Flyers team, especially now that James van Riemsdyk is back. Flyers in five.

Jonah: Man, this is tough. I've told you about my personal history with New Jersey. I really enjoy that. It means a lot to me. New Jersey, man: really, really weird hardcore. It's a kind of townie-ish place with a checkered past, at least in comparison to Philly's relatively rich history. But Philly gets neglected, too. It's a second city. They don't think of themselves as a second city, but people from outside the States, they all say, "Oh yeah, I'll go to LA, I'll go to New York, I'll go to Chicago, the actual so-called second city." Philly gets short shrift. Like New Jersey, they’re places right next to the biggest, brightest shining light on the Eastern Seaboard. I'm sure Philly will take offense to this, but both Philly and New Jersey are "othered."

Anyway, I'm taking New Jersey here. I learned my lesson last time. They proved against Florida that they're not going to be upset. I mentioned climate change when I picked Florida last round, and maybe New Jersey's win proves that the world will be OK, that equilibrium will persist. Nevertheless, we're talking about Mental Abuse and The Worst, about Mental Decay, Dangerous Choo-Choo, Sacred Denial. We're talking about the entire Jersey Shore and whatever aberration of music—small M—it could produce versus the fighting spirit of somebody who wants to make themselves known as a serious player to those outside. Sorry, Philly. It doesn't matter. Jersey all the way.

VICE: Do you feel as if you're more aligned with the Jersey tradition?
Jonah: All of us as Canadians are more aligned with the Jersey tradition. Canada, like Jersey, is an othered place that sits right beside the shining light of North America. Canada is actually more like Scandinavia than New Jersey. Scandinavia: it's the other place versus Europe's more serious contenders. Socialistically oriented, calmer, politically kinder and next to Europe’s more historically important, continent proper-type-places. Canada's like that, too. We're post-colonial, but focus goes to the United States first. We're where people go to for a less acidic, less caustic time.

Like with New Jersey, is my point. If you can't hack it in New York City, you go to New Jersey, where's it's less acidic, where there's more room, where there are more trees—“too many trees,” in the words of Adrenaline OD. Philly is a white-hot coal. It's really busy and there's this really rich history, and there are things that are inexorably Philadelphian. New Jersey has maybe a few things that are indigenously and uniquely New Jerseyan, but it takes and repurposes New York and Pennsylvania, just like Canada has things derivative of England but not really English, and derivative of the States but not really American. Both Jersey and Canada are defined as occupying this negative space and by a rural, sparse population. So that's the affinity. That's why I'm moved to say Jersey is going to win.

We realize this round of picks is a bit late. Our sports editor filed this on Tuesday, but we were out watching crusties trying to bring about the collapse of capitalism in New York. Sorry.

Previously - Round II, Part I

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