Long an oasis of innovation and meritocracy, Silicon Valley has often represented all that is pure in capitalism, a place where guys dare to dream big and big dreams come true, making its players outrageously wealthy, but also producing the kinds of advancement in science and technology that bettered the world, from the personal computer to the commercial cargo ship currently bound for the International Space Station.But all of that could soon be over, surmises Steve Blank. The serial startup maven and Berkeley professor argues that tech, unfortunately, has gone mainstream, as he explains in an interview with the Atlantic:I think it’s the beginning of the end of the valley as we know it. Silicon Valley historically would invest in science, and technology, and, you know, actual silicon. If you were a good VC you could make $100 million. Now there’s a new pattern created by two big ideas. First, for the first time ever, you have computer devices, mobile and tablet especially, in the hands of billions of people. Second is that we are moving all the social needs that we used to do face-to-face, and we’re doing them on a computer.And this trend has just begun. If you think Facebook is the end, ask MySpace. Art, entertainment, everything you can imagine in life is moving to computers. Companies like Facebook for the first time can get total markets approaching the entire population.For Facebook, it’s spectacular. But Silicon Valley is screwed as we know it.If I have a choice of investing in a blockbuster cancer drug that will pay me nothing for ten years, at best, whereas social media will go big in two years, what do you think I’m going to pick? If you’re a VC firm, you’re tossing out your life science division. All of that stuff is hard and the returns take forever. Look at social media. It’s not hard, because of the two forces I just described, and the returns are quick.The attack of short term thinking. And despite all the flack Google has been getting in recent years, they're still one of the only companies doing cool stuff, according to Blank.But think about this. The four most interesting projects in the last five years are Tesla, SpaceX, Google Driving, and Google Goggles. That is one individual, Elon Musk, and one company, Google, doing all four things that are truly Silicon Valley-class disruptive.It’s not like anybody is doing evil or bad. It’s like what Willie Sutton said: Social media is just “where the money is.”In a world dominated by corporations, it's scary to think that they'll no longer be able to, or more realistically, want to take the risk to create the things we really need, ideas and innovations that will push us forward. And the endgame? It's marked by Facebook.The headline for me here is that Facebook’s success has the unintended consequence of leading to the demise of Silicon Valley as a place where investors take big risks on advanced science and tech that helps the world. The golden age of Silicon Valley is over and we’re dancing on its grave. On the other hand, Facebook is a great company. I feel bittersweet.But is Facebook really a great company? That remains to be seen.Check out the full interview.Follow Alec Liu on Twitter: @sfnuop.
Advertisement
Advertisement