Previewing the Running Back Meat Market for the 2016 Offseason

Unlike quarterback, running back is a less-defined position for most teams. Most teams use committees. Most teams can get by with young and cheap replacements.

With most of the season in the books, let's look ahead to the 2016 offseason and see how we expect things to play out for the top two backs in every team's committee. Keep in mind that things can change quickly in the NFL—even more quickly at running back.

Likely Sticking With Their Top Two: Buffalo (LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams), Pittsburgh (Le'Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams), Cincinnati (Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard), San Diego (Danny Woodhead, Melvin Gordon), Philadelphia (Ryan Mathews, DeMarco Murray), Detroit (Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick), Minnesota (Adrian Peterson, Jerrick McKinnon), Atlanta (Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman), St. Louis (Todd Gurley, Tre Mason)

There are a few teams here where I could see a change. Adrian Peterson continues to be a top talent, but his cap number is still a pretty unmanageable $11 million. Ameer Abdullah hasn't been given much of a chance to be a lead back, but his draft stock and talent indicates that eventually he will. Abdullah has been benched several times as a result of his three fumbles. Peterson has fumbled seven times and nobody bats an eyelash. Just another example of a team focusing on a player's warts instead of his positives.

But generally speaking, this list has three different tiers of players: star backs who have made it, young high-pedigree backs who have shown the potential to be great but haven't gotten there yet, and older backs with big cap hits. You'll see more of that last group in this next section…

Lead Dog Contract Questions: Baltimore (Justin Forsett, Buck Allen), Kansas City (Jamaal Charles, Charcandrick West), Chicago (Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford), Seattle (Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Rawls)

Charles and Lynch are both terrific backs dealing with health problems. I fully expect Charles to be back to his old form, but a torn ACL is still a pretty devastating injury and the Chiefs are up against the cap. I think Lynch is more of a retirement risk than anything, but the Seahawks might be inclined to move on since his sports hernia is acting up—especially with how Rawls has played in relief.

Matt Forte seems like a lock to leave in free agency given the Bears' situation. The two sides have barely discussed a return. The Ravens could move on from Forsett, but that doesn't seem like their style, and his cap hit in 2016 is only $3.7 million.

Depth Questions: New England (Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount), Indianapolis (Frank Gore, Josh Robinson), Jacksonville (T.J. Yeldon, Denard Robinson), Oakland (Latavius Murray, Taiwan Jones), New York Giants (Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings), Green Bay (Eddie Lacy, James Starks), Carolina (Jonathan Stewart, Cameron Artis-Payne), New Orleans (Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller), San Francisco (Carlos Hyde, Shaun Draughn)

These teams all have one back who is either established, or are close to being established because of their high pedigree (mostly Yeldon). However, the main backup for teams on this list is either a free-agent to be, verging on washed up, or unestablished. C.J. Spiller is sort of in a no-man's land in those three categories after disappointing as a pass-catching option this season. He's a threat to be cut, especially since the Saints always seem to have a Khiry Robinson stashed somewhere.

The Giants still need a lead back, but Vereen is a more-than-capable passing down runner. Josh Robinson's disappointing season also makes him a likely candidate to be cut—especially if Colts general manager Ryan Grigson doesn't survive the season. The Raiders and 49ers should be in the market for new passing-down backs after Reggie Bush and Roy Helu didn't pan out this season.

Carolina has a long-standing problem with using their cap space on backs. Stewart is having the best season of his career. While I would probably hang on to him for another season, the Panthers could save a couple million in cap space if they cut him this offseason.

Free Agency Questions: Miami (Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi), New York Jets (Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell), Denver (C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman), Tampa Bay (Doug Martin, Charles Sims)

Miller, Martin, and Ivory are three backs who have shown a lot of upside at times, but all three of them are headed into free agency. Ajayi has shown upside in limited carries for the Dolphins, and he'd be the guy I'd most trust of the backups in this group. Sims is a good pass-catching back that may be stretched as an every-down player. Powell is a jack-of-all-trades that can get you by in a pinch. I'm intrigued with how well Martin has played. If re-signed at a reasonable rate, he could be better on his second deal, like Mark Ingram.

The Denver backfield has been a weird spot all year, so why not continue that into free agency? Hillman and Anderson could both be gone next year, and the Broncos don't have any successors on the roster. If this team is still trying to compete next season (in other words, if Brock Oswelier isn't a disaster), it could be a prime landing spot for a big-name back.

Youth Questions: Cleveland (Isaiah Crowell, Duke Johnson), Tennessee (David Cobb, Dexter McCluster), Washington (Matt Jones, Chris Thompson), Arizona (David Johnson, Andre Ellington)

I like the individual backs in these backfields. I think Duke Johnson can be, at the very least, a part of a great passing game. David Cobb could establish himself as a lead back. David Johnson has been downright explosive this year in his limited snaps, and Matt Jones has been much better than I expected.

That said, whenever a team has a backfield with this level of inexperience and no one to pick up the slack, there's the potential for disaster. Washington and Arizona will likely let Alfred Morris and Chris Johnson walk this offseason. (Johnson could come back on another veteran minimum deal.) I wouldn't predict either team's running back situation to be disastrous, but they potentially could be should injuries strike.

Festering Holes: Houston (Arian Foster, Alfred Blue), Dallas (Darren McFadden, uhh…)

As discussed in Arian Foster's Situation Impossible piece, there's a better than average chance he doesn't get brought back after suffering a torn Achilles. If he is brought back, he's going to be even slower than he already was. In Alfred Blue, the Texans have a back who can run right into a pile of bodies to see what happens.

Darren McFadden has produced a couple of good games this year, but there's nothing that tells us he can stay healthy and play well for a full season. The Cowboys have released Christine Michael, are on their second Seahawks cast-off back of the season in Robert Turbin, and cut Joseph Randle. It's comical how close this team is to literal replacement-level running back production. The Texans are sort of there in theory, but they actually chose to run with these bad backs behind Foster. The Cowboys may wind up starting someone off the street sooner rather than later.