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Thiem vs. Nadal and the Changing of the Tennis Guard

As of Wednesday, 23-year-old Dominic Thiem has beat every member of tennis’s Big Four.
Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

For years, the world has wondered when the elder statesmen that make up tennis's big four—Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray—might begin to falter. Of course, great champions will always remain great, even as they age, which can explain the Federer-Nadal Australian Open final earlier this year. In the meantime, players like David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martín del Potro, Stan Wawrinka, and Kei Nishikori made attempts to unseat the tennis aristocracy without much success.

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As more of those players get into their 30s, including the big four, it seems now that the revolution will finally come at the hand of the next generation. But when will they start knocking on the door?

The moment, at least if the surface is clay, seems to be here.

To be sure, Nadal is still the king of clay. After withdrawing from the French Open last year with an injured wrist, he now, at age 31, looks as good as ever as he nears "La Decima," his tenth French Open title. He hasn't lost a set on his way to this year's semifinal, giving up only 22 games in five matches.

But there's another player who hasn't dropped a set at Roland Garros, and he just routed Novak Djokovic to set up a semifinal showdown with the king. Twenty-three-year-old Dominic Thiem needed only two hours and 15 minutes to disband Djokovic 7-6, 6-3, 6-0, on Wednesday. He has only lost 39 games in his five matches so far this tournament.

Thiem and Djokovic

Thiem and Djokovic after the upset. Photo by Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

The young Austrian has come a long way since this time last year, when Djokovic pummeled him in the semifinal on his way to a fourth straight Grand Slam title. At the time, Djokovic seemed so unbeatable that people still praised Thiem amidst the thrashing—it was just Djokovic being Djokovic, his long-standing reputation as a tennis machine in full swing and nothing to be done about it.

Flash forward to today, and the Serbian is in the midst of an eight-month slump. While he did beat Thiem for the fifth straight time in the Rome Open semifinal last month, Thiem exacted his revenge on Wednesday. Only once before, in his 984 career matches, has Djokovic lost a deciding set without winning a game, and the defeat will bump him from the world top two for the first time since March 2011.

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"Hard to comment on third set," Djokovic said following the match. "Nothing was going my way, and everything his way… It's a fact that I'm not playing close to my best. And I know that."

With the loss, commentators are grappling with how long this Djokovic slump might last. Should he take a break? Everyone from John McEnroe to correspondents for the New York Times remarked on how Djokovic was muted and disengaged for much of the match. But much like Federer and Nadal before him, Djokovic—at 30, the youngest of the Big Four—can, and likely will, rebound. Meanwhile, Thiem's ascendance marks the beginning of a movement into the big four's stranglehold.

Thiem's performance is no fluke. Clay is by far his best surface, and he's the only player to have beaten Nadal on it this year. His quickness is far improved over last year, complementing his zinger of a backhand. Thiem has won five titles since 2016, including the Rio Open in February; he's ranked seventh in the ATP men's singles, and No. 3 in the ATP Race (which is based only on the current year).

During the clay court season leading up to Paris, Thiem beat the likes of Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov en route to the finals in both Barcelona and Madrid, where he lost to Nadal. In their most recent meeting on clay, however, the quarterfinals in Rome, Thiem emerged victorious. As of Wednesday, he's beat every member of the Big Four at least once—he even has a winning record against Federer.

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"To beat [Djokovic] for the first time in the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam… it's a dream," said Thiem after the match. "It's amazing how difficult it is to go deep in a Grand Slam because you have to play the best guys round after round and it's not getting easier on Friday."

Nadal

Still the King. Photo by Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Indeed, Friday will be his greatest challenge this year. Rafael Nadal has looked unbeatable this clay season, sweeping the titles in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid. Friday's match will be their fourth meeting in eight weeks, and even though it's the semifinal round, it may very well be the most significant match of the clay court season.

If Thiem continues to move well, and keeps on artfully constructing points from the baseline, he'll press Nadal far more than the opponents that preceded him. He'll need every cheap point off his serve he can get, and if sets go to a tiebreak, we'll witness an epic: the clay masters, king and prince, both with immense mental fortitude, vying for the Paris final.

Thiem won that most recent meeting on clay, snapping Nadal's 17-match winning streak in Rome, so I'm taking the longshot bet on him. Of course, the best-of-five is leagues different from best-of-three, but if Thiem can come out strong and find the break opportunities at 3-all or 4-all like he did in Rome, he can dethrone the king (at least for this year).

Regardless of the outcome, though, Thiem's clay court season triumphs won't be left out to dry for the rest of 2017. Other young guns like Sascha Zverev and Nick Kyrgios will be ones to watch as the surface turns to grass then hard court again. All three of these players have beaten members of the Big Four. As Federer and Nadal continue with abbreviated schedules and Djokovic searches for the hunger (and right coaching staff) needed to win on the Grand Slam stage, their staying power will only perpetuate this highest moment of reckoning for tennis's elder statesmen.