NFL 2016 Preview: Which Division Is Going to be the Worst?

The parity-driven NFL sets its schedule by an Orwellian truth: All divisions are equal, but some are more equal than others.

Natural fluctuations in team strength can be wildly exacerbated by the league's rotating divisional-matchup schedule; when weak divisions are matched up against strong ones, we get historic achievements in awfulness, like the 2014 NFC South. Entering the regular season, which division looks primed to give us the most ignorable slapfights in 2016? Here, in a race to the bottom of the page and the league, are the NFL divisions from best to worst.

NFC WEST

Two years ago, the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers were perennial title contenders, while the Arizona Cardinals were talented enough to have won most other divisions. That left the St. Louis Rams at the bottom of the heap, but even Jeff Fisher & Co. were able to take games off their three divisional rivals.

The sheen has worn off a bit since then, though. The Rams look far from ready for the LA limelight, least of all their costly No. 1 overall pick, Jared Goff. The 49ers are completely decimated. The rest of the league and the salary cap picked all the rich depth off the Seahawks' bones.

Seattle still has the spine of a great defense, a great quarterback, and great coaching, though, and the Cardinals are probably the most loaded team in the sport (as long as Carson Palmer doesn't fall off). No matter how bad the Rams and the 49ers are, this is a tough group.

NFC NORTH

A week ago, this division had write-'em-in-ink playoff squads in the Minnesota Vikings and the perennially-contending Green Bay Packers. The Detroit Lions had been one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch, and the Chicago Bears were entering Year 2 of a John Fox turnaround. The future was looking bright.

Then Teddy Bridgewater dislocated his knee in preseason practice, and everything seemed a little less rosy. Now the Vikings are starting Shaun Hill … and you remember that the McCarthy/Rodgers magic has been in less abundant supply in Green Bay lately … and that the Lions may crater without Calvin Johnson … and that Jay Cutler exists.

Luckily for football fans in the Midwest, this division has a cakewalk schedule, with matchups against the AFC South and NFC East. If Matthew Stafford doesn't crack under center for the Lions this year, all four teams could finish near, at, or above .500.

AFC NORTH

Over the last decade-plus, this division has been predictable: of the Baltimore Ravens, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, two teams are going to the playoffs. Also, the Cleveland Browns are going to be terrible.

There are reasons to doubt the Ravens (injuries) and the Steelers (suspensions), but the Bengals, at least, look primed to keep doing their thing: winning ten-plus games and flopping out of the postseason. Also, the Browns will still be terrible.

Matchups against the AFC East and NFC East will give these teams a lot of marquee games, but not a lot of Ls on the schedule. It's easy to see a Wild Card coming out of this division again.

AFC EAST

The New England Patriots have won this division a ludicrous 13 of the last 15 years. With an elderly Tom Brady coming off a miserable AFC championship performance, however, and starting the season with a four-game suspension, the rest of the division has a chance.

At least in theory.

In reality, however, the Buffalo Bills feature a lot of young talent almost sure to be less than the sum of their parts. The New York Jets pulled off the offseason's second-most ridiculous player/executive standoff, and the Miami Dolphins have a first-time head coach.

Yet while no other AFC East team may be in the best position to unseat King Belichick, they're also matched up against the AFC South and NFC East, two of the weaker divisions in recent history. If Brady turns into a pumpkin, there's disaster potential. More likely, though, the Pats win 10 or 11, edging the Jets by one or two games for yet another division title.

NFC SOUTH

The Carolina Panthers have a few new faces on defense, returning talent on offense, and a MVP quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. Still, they needed a lot of breaks to hit 15 wins last year, so expect some regression to the mean.

I am profoundly Not Buying the alleged progression of Matt Ryan, and doubt the Atlanta Falcons' D will hold off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have the talent to be pretty darn resurgent. The New Orleans Saints made some savvy moves in the offseason and could surprise.

This division should be much more competitive this year than last—but given tough matchups against the NFC West and AFC West, the bottom three could still all finish below .500, and the Panthers may only win ten or 11.

AFC WEST

The NFL champion Denver Broncos return almost all of a fantastic defense, along with some tremendous offensive weapons—but also a messy offensive line and, well, Trevor Siemian. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have achieved full Andy Reid-ness; they're now a perennial contender who will never cash in.

Many are hyped about the Oakland Raiders, but Derek Carr isn't quite there yet, and the defense added a lot of parts in the off-season that may not mesh well together. The San Diego Chargers have combined bad decisions with bad luck, and could be truly awful.

Even if the Broncos' O-line and quarterback struggles make them mortal, though, matchups against the AFC South and NFC South raise the floor for the entire division.

AFC SOUTH

The AFC South is nearly everyone's go-to choice for a terrible division. As long as Andrew Luck returns intact from his 2015 walkabout, the Indianapolis Colts will probably be fine (against all how-do-these-decision-makers-still-have-jobs odds).

The Houston Texans' sight-unseen buy of quarterback Brock Osweiler and hoarding of literal track stars makes for an intriguing boom-or-bust offense. If Jadeveon Clowney comes on, and/or J.J. Watt comes back quickly, they could again be in the hunt.

Everyone is excited about the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they need way too many unproven players to come up huge. The Tennessee Titans did everything wrong. Schedules against the NFC North and AFC West mean a tough slog for those two; the Texans and the Colts could again be locked in a December drag race to nine wins.

NFC EAST

Everyone knows the NFC East is a mess. The New York Giants are going to put up a lot of passing yards, but even Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkis probably can't make 2015's third-worst scoring defense a decent unit. Philadelphia hired Doug Pederson as their head coach and sank half their cap into three quarterbacks, none of whom are good. The Dallas Cowboys just lost Tony Romo again, and their defense was already going to be rough.

Washington could be the lone bright spot here, but nobody seems to want to believe the team is for real, whether it's a lack of faith in Kirk Cousins, a lack of faith in Jay Gruden, or just habitual dismissal of the franchise entirely. If you write them off, and consider matchups against the NFC North and AFC North, the NFC East will be the worst division in football.

If you give Washington their ten-win due … well, the NFC East could still be the worst division in football.

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