Meet Patrick Avenell, a guy who calls himself the Hottest 100 ‘Rain Man’. The Sydney journalist podcaster, and statistician has certainly been thinking hard on who will win the Triple J Hottest 100 that's to be announced and played on Australia Day this Tuesday.Avenell has written a lengthy blog post dissecting the 2015 countdown and attempting to find "some order in the madness”. The predictions are based on truckloads of data and anecdotal evidence that Avenell and a mathematician friend manually entered into spreadsheets and software to visualize and map the results.Their findings predict “Lean On” by Major Lazer & DJ Snake coming in at number one, followed by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ “Downtown” and Chet Faker & Marcus Marr’s "The Trouble With Us".Controversy has surrounded gambling and betting on this year’s poll with booking agencies offering their own odds on the winner and Triple J station manager Chris Scaddan warning listeners against betting calling it “a slippery slope to debt and addiction.”Bookies started taking bets on this year’s Hottest 100 in July, with William Hill showing Kendrick Lamar’s “King Kunta” as the favourite at the time of writing.Noisey: How confident are you that Major Lazer, DJ Snake & MØ’s “Lean On” will win?
Patrick Avenell: Not very confident — I think “King Kunta” has been a lot of people's tenth favourite track, and that's actually the key to winning the Hottest 100. I wouldn't be surprised if these were the Top 2. I would love for “Lean On” to win because I think it's more representative of 2015 in music: it's a three-person collab bringing together the US, France and Denmark and it fits in with the zeitgeist paradigm of a producer working with a eclectic clutch of on-trend vocalist to create an interesting narrative.Why did you write the original post?
Through 2015 I was quite ill and decided to leave a job I had worked at (and loved) for 7-years. When I was ready to get back into work, I made a commitment that every day I would consume something creative and I would produce something creative. There are no strict rules regarding this.The former could mean seeing a film or reading 100 pages of a book or watching some high quality TV or going to a museum or listening to a Radiohead album or tackling David Astle's Friday crossword. At least once per day I want to expose myself to something artistic and creative. The latter is also flexible. Some days it's simply a finely crafted tweet or posting a vignette on Facebook or writing a review of a Bloc Party concert. On another day it will be a podcast or a poem or a 4,000-word article on trends and stats in the Hottest 100. I want to be a fulcrum of creativity, both consuming and contributing, and writing that post was one part of that commitment.What do you think of the controversy surrounding betting on this year’s poll?
I have $20 on “Let It Happen” to win. I don't think there should be betting on it and I would prefer it if it were somehow banned. I am aware of the hypocrisy of this position: I placed my bet because I think it represents good value, or at least it did when I thought “Let It Happen” was undervalued, and I do enjoy gambling; but that doesn't mean I think there should be betting markets on it. I think gambling is ruining a lot of things in Australia — not just poor punters' bank balances — but also our ability to enjoy something in its purest form, and even I have fallen victim to this, much to my own shame.Who do you really want to win?
I am starting to warm towards wanting Methyl Ethel’s “Twilight Driving” to win. It's highly representative of Australianness and very atmospheric. It's also a good community service announcement: kangaroos are a crepuscular animal so you should be wary if driving through bushy areas.Patrick Avenell’s 2015 Hottest 100 Top 10 Predictions
1. "Lean On’" — Major Lazer, DJ Snake & MØ
2. "Downtown" — Macklemore & Ryan Lewis et al
3. "The Trouble With Us" — Marcus Marr & Chet Faker
4. "Do You Remember" — Jarryd James
5. "Hoops" — The Rubens
6. "Let It Happen"— Tame Impala
7. "Can’t Feel My Face" — The Weeknd
8. "Say My Name"— Peking Duk & Benjamin Joseph
9. "Hotline Bling" — Drake
10. "King Kunta" — Kendrick Lamar
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Patrick Avenell: Not very confident — I think “King Kunta” has been a lot of people's tenth favourite track, and that's actually the key to winning the Hottest 100. I wouldn't be surprised if these were the Top 2. I would love for “Lean On” to win because I think it's more representative of 2015 in music: it's a three-person collab bringing together the US, France and Denmark and it fits in with the zeitgeist paradigm of a producer working with a eclectic clutch of on-trend vocalist to create an interesting narrative.Why did you write the original post?
Through 2015 I was quite ill and decided to leave a job I had worked at (and loved) for 7-years. When I was ready to get back into work, I made a commitment that every day I would consume something creative and I would produce something creative. There are no strict rules regarding this.
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I have $20 on “Let It Happen” to win. I don't think there should be betting on it and I would prefer it if it were somehow banned. I am aware of the hypocrisy of this position: I placed my bet because I think it represents good value, or at least it did when I thought “Let It Happen” was undervalued, and I do enjoy gambling; but that doesn't mean I think there should be betting markets on it. I think gambling is ruining a lot of things in Australia — not just poor punters' bank balances — but also our ability to enjoy something in its purest form, and even I have fallen victim to this, much to my own shame.Who do you really want to win?
I am starting to warm towards wanting Methyl Ethel’s “Twilight Driving” to win. It's highly representative of Australianness and very atmospheric. It's also a good community service announcement: kangaroos are a crepuscular animal so you should be wary if driving through bushy areas.Patrick Avenell’s 2015 Hottest 100 Top 10 Predictions
1. "Lean On’" — Major Lazer, DJ Snake & MØ
2. "Downtown" — Macklemore & Ryan Lewis et al
3. "The Trouble With Us" — Marcus Marr & Chet Faker
4. "Do You Remember" — Jarryd James
5. "Hoops" — The Rubens
6. "Let It Happen"— Tame Impala
7. "Can’t Feel My Face" — The Weeknd
8. "Say My Name"— Peking Duk & Benjamin Joseph
9. "Hotline Bling" — Drake
10. "King Kunta" — Kendrick Lamar