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How Serge Ibaka Fits with the Raptors

We look at what Serge Ibaka brings on both ends of the floor, and how the Raptors' rotation will change as a result of the team's latest addition.
Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As Thursday's 3 PM trade deadline approaches, all eyes fall on the NBA rumour mill. While Toronto Raptors fans scour the internet for the latest buzz from reporters or the latest emoji from a player, wondering who they might add next, the Raptors who are on the roster as of this writing will find themselves busy with something else: practice.

The Raptors returned to BioSteel Centre on Wednesday after their All-Star break (Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan come back Thursday), and the reconvening of the roster for a workout presents a reminder that maybe shouldn't be necessary already: Toronto already did its big shopping. Wednesday will mark the first official session in which Serge Ibaka is part of the proceedings, allowing head coach Dwane Casey and company to begin to find out how a piece that fits well on paper will fit on hardwood.

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What's clear from the deal that sent Terrence Ross and a first-round pick to the Orlando Magic is that the Raptors are a more serious threat today than they were before the trade. What's still to be discovered is exactly what Ibaka does for them, how he'll impact his teammates, and just how high he can help lift this team.

READ MORE: Why Delon Wright Is Suddenly a Key Piece for the Raptors

Here's a look at some of the Ibaka fallout to watch for as the Raptors get the final trimester of their season underway.

What Ibaka Does Offensively

Ibaka comes in averaging 15.1 points, 1.8 offensive rebounds, and 1.1 assists with a tidy 48.8-percent mark from the floor. More importantly than his overall field-goal percentage is that Ibaka has knocked down a career-best 38.8 percent of his 3-point shots on the heaviest volume of his career. While with the Thunder, Ibaka slowly began toying with that long-range shot, first establishing himself as an occasional weapon and then emerging as someone who can really stretch the floor from the power forward or center spot.

Most notably for the Raptors, Ibaka is a terrific shooter in pick-and-pop scenarios. He ranks sixth among bigs in the NBA in catch-and-shoot scoring, and he's knocked down 39.8 percent of his threes above the break. Basically, Ibaka went unused in the corners in Orlando. That's an easier shot he may get more of in Toronto, but it's the threat of him setting a hard screen and then flaring out above the arc that will really help the Raptors' ball-handlers. Load up on Lowry or DeRozan, and Ibaka's an even bigger threat than Patrick Patterson to use that additional space to knock down a jumper, either while stationary or on the short-roll to the free-throw line.

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Ibaka shot chart via Austin Clemens

The Raptors run a fair amount of staggered-screen or dual-screen action, and having a player of Ibaka's size who is a threat to pop opens up a lot of options. If he shares the floor with Jonas Valanciunas or Lucas Nogueira, those plays stand to stretch the defense in both directions. If he's playing with Patterson, the Raptors can get really creative. With less capable guard play in Orlando, Ibaka averaged just 1.9 screen assists, but expect that number to rise in Toronto. You can also expect Ibaka's rate of contested 3-point shots—78.9 percent of his threes were contested—to decline given that he'll be given less attention with superior teammates.

What Ibaka won't do in those situations, though, is present a major threat rolling to the rim. As a team, the Raptors are elite when their dive-man finishes a play, but it's not something they go to all that often, despite that success. Ibaka's strengths lie elsewhere, and his performance as the roller has left something to be desired this year (as Chris Black notes, he's 25th of 35 players with 100 such possessions in points per-roll).

That's not the end of the world. Ibaka doesn't stand to be used as a scorer as much as he was in Orlando, where he was posting a career-high usage rate of 21 percent. A return to his 17-to-19 percent range from his Thunder days would seem likely given Toronto's offensive structure, and that could help him push his efficiency even higher. Ibaka will feast on pick-and-pop jumpers, with a few post-ups thrown in to show off his emerging hook shot.

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What Ibaka Does Defensively

Voted to the NBA All-Defensive First Team in three consecutive years from 2011-12 to 2013-14, Ibaka's defensive reputation may overstate his current value on that end of the floor. A two-time league-leader in blocked shots, Ibaka's move to more full-time power forward play has taken him away from the rim, and his block rate has declined precipitously as a result. Rim-protection numbers are fickle year-to-year and subject to team context, but his career-low block rate has been coupled with an increase in opponent effectiveness against him at the rim.

There's reason to believe he'll improve in Toronto. For one, the Raptors stand to use him as a center a bit more (more on that in a second), where he can stay closer to the basket. When he's at power forward, he remains a capable weak-side helper, and his versatility should let the Raptors get aggressive in how they use him alongside Valanciunas.

What's more, Ibaka was perhaps guilty of not going at full speed for the entirety of his time in Orlando—if his engagement increased and his focus proves more consistent, the Raptors will probably be getting a better defensive piece than the Magic did, although still not Ibaka in his Thunder prime. The middle-ground between those two players is still a very good addition. It's not like he can't get up anymore, or anything.

How the Rotation Changes

The addition of Ibaka would be important, regardless, but the reason it stands to improve the Raptors so significantly is the stark contrast to what the Raptors had been doing at the position before. Replacement level is something discussed more in baseball than basketball, but consider that Ibaka's minutes will be coming at the expense of a carousel of bad power forward options: Pascal Siakam tried admirably but isn't ready for an NBA starting spot as a rookie; Jakob Poeltl was solid but out of position; Lucas Nogueira was surprisingly effective but matchup dependent; and DeMarre Carroll is better off there in small doses.

Ibaka's debut coinciding with Patterson's return makes the impact all the greater. Casey is done having to use patchwork solutions at power forward, and his frontcourt rotation is the deepest it's ever been.

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Both Ibaka and Patterson can stretch the floor. The two together will give the Raps a ton ofspacing. Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

RookiesSiakam's already been sent to Raptors 905, and he figures to see steady time there over the next few weeks. Poeltl may see less time there, but he's firmly out of the rotation. This is OK—56-win teams rarely lean on rookies for heavy minutes, and the early exposure out of necessity should only help the long-term development of each one.

Nogueira and ValanciunasNogueira is the big loser here. Because Ibaka can play center in smaller lineups, some of Nogueira's minutes at the backup center could be gone. He still figures to be a rotation player in the interim, but if Casey shortens things in the postseason, it's likely to be Nogueira taking the brunt of that hit. Valanciunas might see a dip in playing time, too, depending on how often the Raptors opt to downsize. Both bigs can play with either Ibaka or Patterson, but there are only 96 minutes across the two positions, and someone has to miss out considering Ibaka and Patterson will likely combine for about 60 of them. (Valanciunas is averaging 26.9 presently, while Nogueira is at 21.6.)

Carroll and PowellHaving actual power forwards means the Raptors will go small far less often out of necessity. Downsizing significantly with Powell as the de facto power forward may be a thing of the past now, and since Carroll's unlikely to see as many minutes as a small four, Powell's minutes are likely to come exclusively as the team's third wing. This isn't a bad thing, necessarily. It saves wear and tear on Carroll, and Powell's still going to see a minutes bump with Ross outbound. And Casey maintains the option to go super small in the future, too, with Ibaka perhaps the best potential center for those four-around-one groups.

WrightUnless another deal goes down, the impressive Delon Wright would stand as the team's fourth wing. It's possible he'd see time in multi-guard lineups in that role, but fewer minutes going small and fewer minutes on the wing in general might mean his case for a bigger role falls on deaf ears for the time being.

Closing lineupWho plays in the fourth quarter is usually a matter of gameflow and matchups, so trying to predict a full 48-minute rotation is difficult. Still, precedent suggests Casey has no qualms about downsizing late in games. The Patterson-Ibaka pairing gives a little up on the glass, but it also provides a ton of spacing at the offensive end and a lot of switchability on defense. The starting lineup with Patterson in place of Valanciunas seems, on paper, the most likely closing group for this team, unless it's a night where Valanciunas or Nogueira are playing particularly well or Casey wants an additional ball-handler on the floor in Cory Joseph. This is probably the rotation element to watch over the last 25 games, as the Raptors have precious little time to find out what their best option is for late in close, playoff-atmosphere games.