15,000 Scientists Warn Society Could ‘Collapse’ This Century In Dire Climate Report

Scientists are warning that we are now in “uncharted territory” as a result of human-driven climate change in a new “state of the climate” report that was signed by 15,000 researchers from 163 countries.

Researchers emphasized the current suffering caused by record-breaking climate extremes and raised alarms about the possibility of widespread societal and ecological collapse in the future, while also decrying recent increases in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, which is the primary driver of climate change.

The 2023 report, published on Tuesday in the journal BioScience, is the latest update in an annual series called World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency. Since 2019, scientists have been tracking escalating threats that warming global temperatures present to humans and ecosystems around the world. 

The new report, led by Oregon State University ecologist William Ripple, warns that 2023 was a particularly devastating year of extreme wildfires, floods, heatwaves, and other natural disasters that are amplified by climate change. The authors suggest that temperatures this past July may well have been the warmest on Earth over the past 100,000 years, which they called “a sign that we are pushing our planetary systems into dangerous instability.” 

“As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms,” Ripple and his colleagues wrote in the report. “The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.”

“Global daily mean temperatures never exceeded 1.5-degree Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels prior to 2000 and have only occasionally exceeded that number since then,” the researchers noted. “However, 2023 has already seen 38 days with global average temperatures above 1.5°C by 12 September—more than any other year—and the total may continue to rise.”

The authors have spent years monitoring 35 of Earth’s “vital signs,” such as global tree cover, greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean temperatures, and populations of humans and livestock. The new report cautions that 20 of those signs are now at record extremes, which is up from 16 in 2022.

Ripple’s team noted that natural effects, such as the El Niño weather pattern and the 2022 eruption of an underwater volcano, were a factor in the record-smashing climate extremes this year. However, the researchers stressed that human-driven climate change is exacerbating many of these natural processes in ways that will generate more frequent and catastrophic anomalies in the coming decades. 

The report includes a section entitled “Untold Human Suffering in Pictures” that offers a powerful visual accounting of people experiencing climate-related disasters over the past several years. The people who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change tend to live in less wealthy nations that have contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for environmental justice movements.

“In 2023, climate change likely contributed to a number of major extreme weather events and disasters,” the researchers wrote, referencing deadly floods in China and India, a devastating storm in Libya that killed thousands of people, and heat-waves around the world. “As these impacts continue to accelerate, more funding to compensate for climate-related loss and damage in developing countries is urgently needed.”

“The effects of global warming are progressively more severe, and possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and dangerously underexplored,” the team warned. “By the end of this century, an estimated 3 to 6 billion individuals—approximately one-third to one-half of the global population—might find themselves confined beyond the livable region, encountering severe heat, limited food availability, and elevated mortality rates because of the effects of climate change.”

“We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems in such a world where we will face unbearable heat, frequent extreme weather events, food and fresh water shortages, rising seas, more emerging diseases, and increased social unrest and geopolitical conflict,” the researchers said.

It’s natural to feel overwhelmed by the enormity of the challenge presented by climate change, but Ripple and his colleagues offer several solutions to avoid the worst possible outcomes. Of course, the team urged the global community to rapidly transition from the use of fossil fuels, even in the face of major geopolitical obstacles, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The researchers also advocated that more resources be allocated to fight climate-related food insecurity and to promote gender equality, as these efforts will reduce the lopsided exposure of more vulnerable communities to climate disasters around the world. The team also argued that key climate tipping points require constant attention due to the “the possible but less likely scenario of runaway or apocalyptic climate change,” according to the report. 

Last, and perhaps most importantly, the report said that human societies will also need to undergo a mindset shift from the traditional focus on economic growth over all other metrics.

“To address the overexploitation of our planet, we challenge the prevailing notion of endless growth and overconsumption by rich countries and individuals as unsustainable and unjust,” the team wrote. “Instead, we advocate for reducing resource overconsumption; reducing, reusing, and recycling waste in a more circular economy; and prioritizing human flourishing and sustainability.”

“As we will soon bear witness to failing to meet the Paris agreement’s aspirational 1.5°C goal, the significance of immediately curbing fossil fuel use and preventing every further 0.1°C increase in future global heating cannot be overstated,” the researchers concluded. “Rather than focusing only on carbon reduction and climate change, addressing the underlying issue of ecological overshoot will give us our best shot at surviving these challenges in the long run. This is our moment to make a profound difference for all life on Earth, and we must embrace it with unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of change that will stand the test of time.”