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Weighing the Options of Louis Smolka

After his breakout performance in Dublin, what's next for the rising Hawaiian flyweight?
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

In the days leading up to the UFC's recent return to Dublin, Paddy Holohan and Louis Smolka received a bit of a surprise. When injuries nixed the card's originally scheduled main and co-main events, their flyweight clash, which was originally set to open the main card, was unexpectedly elevated to the headlining spot. And though Holohan was the hometown favourite in this surprise main event—and the man who would get the better of the bout's opening minutes— Hawaii's Smolka eventually turned the tide with some mean ground-and-pound and a slick rear-naked choke for the "W".

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It was clearly not the night the Irish fans in attendance were hoping for. After losing the top two fights on the card they'd bought tickets for, Smolka's slapping the choke on their boy had to sting. The significance of the Hawaiian's victory, however, cannot be understated. He flew half way around the globe to fight behind enemy lines, against one of the top prospects from one of the top gyms in Europe. Then, he was thrust into the bright lights of the main event to play the villain in his opponent's backyard. And finally, despite all these stresses and obstacles, the 24-year-old plowed through adversity for a beautiful second-round finish.

Now 10-1 overall, and on a three-fight streak including a knockout, an entertaining decision, and most recently, a submission, Smolka is marching straight toward the top of the flyweight division. Of course, he's still probably a few victories shy of a shot at Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson's belt. So, what is the next step for this rising fighter? Well, as you may have guessed, he's got plenty of exciting options.

The most logical next step for Smolka would be a middle of the pack competitor like Dustin Ortiz or Chico Camus—that is to say, an opponent that would test him, but not overwhelm him, a final hurdle before he's thrust into the ferocious company of the division's top dogs. Of course, the logical route isn't always the most exciting. Furthermore, after his awesome performance in Dublin, it would not be surprising to see Smolka fast-tracked to contendership with a major step up in competition. The division needs all the contenders in can get, after all.

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In such an event, Smolka might look forward to a scrap with Zach Makovsky, who is coming off a razor-thin loss to John Dodson. Ali Bagautinov, who recently had a fairly flat performance against Joseph Benavidez, would make a similarly sound opponent for the rising Hawaiian. And finally, Ian McCall, who we have not seen since he came up short to John Lineker in January, could also make a good next step for Smolka. Of course, as staples of the top-10, and the kind of powerful grapplers Smolka has yet to face, any of these men would mark a massive test for him. As he proved in Dublin, however, he's more than capable of prevailing over stark challenges.

That being said, the most interesting course for Smolka might not be a date with an long-established top-10 flyweight either. Instead, it might be better to pair him with another young fighter on the way up—a fighter in the same vein as Holohan. To this end, the choices are surprisingly abundant.

Imagine, for example, a clash between Smolka and Ray Borg. Like Smolka, Borg is under 25 years old, has a comparable record of 9-1, and is currently riding a three-fight win-streak composed of two stoppages and a one-sided decision. And just like Smolka, he's awaiting a well-deserved step up in competition. Why not drop them on the canvas together to see who deserves a date with a top-10 opponent?

This matchmaking strategy could also lead Smolka to Sergio Pettis. Though the young Pettis has had some low moments inside the Octagon, he's currently riding the momentum of the biggest win of his career: An October defeat of former title challenger Chris Cariaso. And while that leaves him just one win removed from a TKO loss to Ryan Benoit, Pettis has proven himself capable of ending things on the feet or the mat, and established himself as one of the division's most exciting competitors.

And finally, there's Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto protégé Kyoji Horiguchi. After coming up short in a title fight with Demetrious Johnson—a clear case of too much too soon—he rebounded with a thumping of the ever-dangerous Chico Camus. And while he would mark a fairly hefty step up in competition for Smolka, the two inventive, young finishers match up beautifully on paper, and the winner would find themselves right on the pinnacle at 125 pounds.

Now, naysayers might argue that pairing prospects with prospects in this way is an unwise strategy, as it knocks potential contenders off-course in a division where contenders are needed desperately. As Smolka and Holohan proved in Dublin however, prospects rarely fail to entertain when paired together, and thrilling matchups like theirs are just what the oft-criticized flyweight division needs to gain more traction with fans. The best course for Smolka then, is perhaps another do-or-die clash with a fellow fighter on the rise. This route, after all, is likely to both entertain the the fans, and bring the dynamic Hawaiian along at a pace that is neither too fast, nor too slow.

Whatever test Smolka faces next, however, one thing is clear. He has the look of a very special fighter, and will probably be testing his mettle against the division's best before long.