Trump and Sanders Win the New Hampshire Primary

Voters in New Hampshire went to the polls Tuesday in the second contest of the 2016 presidential campaign. Following the Iowa Caucuses last week, results in New Hampshire could further winnow down the field and show which candidates have staying power. VICE News reporters and producers Olivia Becker, Eric Fernandez, Andrew Glazer, Michael Moynihan, and Ryan Nethery are on the ground, covering the first-in-the-nation primary, coordinated by politics editor Sarah Mimms. Follow along on Twitter for more updates: @obecker928, @mcmoynihan, @vicenews.

12:30am: Winners and Losers Clear, But the Middle of the Pack Remains in Flux

There are some clear winners and losers in New Hampshire tonight, even with nearly 20 percent of ballots still uncounted. But who will place in third and fourth in the Republican primary, potentially key placements particularly for campaigns that struggled in Iowa, remains to be seen.

Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders won their respective primaries Tuesday night, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich and, naturally, Hillary Clinton, taking second place. With 83 percent of precincts reporting, Sanders held a historic lead over his rival, besting Clinton by 21 points, at 60-39 percent. Trump, meanwhile, held 35 percent of the vote in the Republican primary, while Kasich clocked in at 16 percent.

The race for third place continues, with Sen. Ted Cruz and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush caught in a statistical tie around 11 percent of the vote. Cruz, who came in second in Iowa last week, held a slight edge in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Sen. Marco Rubio, who rode a wave of high expectations after finishing third in Iowa, was in fifth with 10.5 percent of the vote.

Rounding out the Republican field were New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is headed home to New Jersey to consider his options after placing in sixth. Behind Christie were Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.

-- Sarah Mimms

12am: More (Super PAC) Money, More Problems?

VICE News' Michael Moynihan was on-hand at Ohio Gov. John Kasich's victory rally (or, rather, second-place-finish rally) on Tuesday night, pointing out that the candidates with big outside money didn't do very well this evening, but those on the ground did. Kasich, who has spent months traveling New Hampshire and has struggled to raise money so far in the campaign, is case in point.

Video by Ryan Nethery, featuring Michael Moynihan

-- Sarah Mimms

11:15pm: Christie Headed Home — And Out?

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is heading home to New Jersey to reevaluate his campaign, he told supporters during a concession speech on Tuesday night after failing to break into double digits.

Christie said he had spoken with his wife Mary Pat and would wait for final results from New Hampshire, which will likely come Wednesday morning, before making a decision about how to proceed. The governor has several campaign stops on his schedule for tomorrow in South Carolina, but those will be put on hold while he considers his next steps after a difficult loss in New Hampshire tonight.

Christie, whose attacks on Sen. Marco Rubio in Saturday night's Republican debate were credited in part with Rubio's slip in the standings in New Hampshire, did not seem to benefit from the vacuum he created. With 72 percent of precincts reporting, Christie was in seventh place, carrying just 7.6 percent of the Republican vote.

Related: After Iowa: Rubio, Sanders, Trump All Have Big Opportunities in New Hampshire

Christie was upbeat Tuesday morning as VICE News followed him on the campaign trail. Christie appeared confident that his debate performance over the weekend would catapult him into a stronger position in New Hampshire. "All anybody wants to talk to me about is the debate," he said this morning. Later he added: "I can't imagine a scenario tonight under which I wouldn't be on a plane to South Carolina tomorrow morning."

-- Sarah Mimms

10:45pm: Kasich, Not So Basic Anymore

A pleasantly surprised John Kasich delivered his second-place speech to a room full of chanting supporters tonight in New Hampshire, after finishing in a surprise second place in the New Hampshire primary.

Kasich gave an emotional speech that began with jokes and ended with a plea for Americans to look out for and communicate with one another.

The governor started off by congratulating Donald Trump, who won New Hampshire with 34 percent of the vote, to which the crowd promptly booed. "No, no," Kasich said. "He won fair and square." Kasich currently has 16 percent of the Republican vote in New Hampshire, with 66 percent of precincts reporting.

The Ohio governor has struggled with name recognition and low poll numbers throughout much of the election, but in recent weeks has steadily risen in the polls, especially here in New Hampshire where his campaign has deployed an impressive ground game. Kasich, who told the crowd Tuesday night that there was "magic in the air," skipped the Iowa caucuses last week and had pinned his entire campaign on success in New Hampshire. The Ohio governor had said previously that he would not continue in the primary race after a poor performance on Tuesday. That plan is apparently now scratched.

Kasich said he is headed to South Carolina tonight and next fall will be "coming back to New Hampshire!"

"Something big happened tonight and let me tell you what it is -- we have had tens and tens of millions of dollars spent against us with negative advertising. … That's the old politics, we never went negative because we have more good to sell than to spend our time being critical of somebody else," Kasich said. "And maybe, maybe just maybe, we are turning a page on the dark part of politics because tonight the light overcame the darkness of negative campaigning. And you made it happen!"

Kasich went on to talk about what he sees as one of the biggest problems facing the US -- not the economy or foreign threats, but the lack of connection between individual people. He described several supporters who traveled to see him at campaign events, telling him about illnesses they or family members experienced. Some of them just wanted to be heard.

"There are too many people in America who don't feel connected, they've got victories that no one celebrates with them and they have defeats and pain [they handle alone]," Kasich concluded.

Related: Underdog Clinton Goes After Sanders in New Hampshire Debate

The Ohio governor encouraged the audience, both at his campaign party and watching on television to "be willing to listen to the person who lives next door … just slow down, look them in the eye, give them a hug."

"You see, it doesn't take government, it takes our hearts -- our hearts to change America," he said.

Kasich's soft temperament and unfailing politeness has often meant he has remained in the shadows of this Republican primary race, which has been the polar opposite. But his moderate personality and politics clearly resonated with voters in New Hampshire tonight. He concluded his speech by saying, "I'm going to go slower and spend my time listening and healing and bringing people together."

-- Olivia Becker and Sarah Mimms

10:40pm: Rubio Admits Fault in Concession Speech

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who spent the better part of the last two days being chased by protesters dressed as robots, admitted that he did not come across well in Saturday's debate and promised to learn from that fateful performance and not keep repeating himself.

"It's on me. I did not do well on Saturday night so listen to this," Rubio said during his concession speech in New Hampshire. "That will never happen again."

With roughly 60 percent of precinct results in, Rubio is currently placed fifth among GOP contenders with 10 percent of the vote.

-- Liz Fields

10:15pm: "I love you all. Thank you New Hampshire!"

A victorious Donald Trump addressed thrilled supporters just moments after Sanders left the stage across town.

Trump gave a wide-ranging speech that hit on everything from curbing New Hampshire's heroin epidemic and fighting ISIS to protecting the Second Amendment and taking care of veterans. He occasionally paused as the crowd chanted "Trump! Trump! Trump!"

"I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created," Trump said.

Related: A Judge Just Scolded the State Department for Blowing the Deadline on the Clinton Emails

Echoing Sanders' sentiments from just a few minutes earlier, Trump brought up money in politics, arguing that politicians "aren't so stupid" and are making deals to benefit themselves rather than average Americans. "We are going to make the deals for the American people," Trump said.

Trump, who is currently running at 34 percent in New Hampshire with a little more than half of the votes in, said that the campaign had a massive overflow crowd that couldn't make it into the event Tuesday night. "We have thousands of people outside that can't even get in," he said.

"I love you all. Thank you New Hampshire! Thank you! Thank you!" Trump said, in closing. "Thank you New Hampshire! We are going now to South Carolina. We are going to win in South Carolina!"

-- Sarah Mimms

9:35pm: Sanders Speaks

Sen. Bernie Sanders took to the stage just before 9:30pm to address supporters and thank Hillary Clinton for conceding defeat.

He did not shy away from criticizing the Clinton campaign, if not by name. Just nine months ago, Sanders reminded supporters, the campaign had very little organization or funding in New Hampshire or nationally. "And [we were] taking on the most powerful political organization in the United States of America," Sanders said. "What happened here in New Hampshire in terms of an enthusiastic and aroused electorate … that is what will happen all around this country."

"Tonight we serve notice to the political and economic establishment of this country that the American people will not continue to accept a corrupt campaign finance system that is undermining American democracy and we will not accept a rigged economy in which ordinary Americans work longer hours for lower wages where almost all the incoming wealthy goes to the top 1 percent," Sanders said.

Video by Eric Fernandez/VICE News.

Sanders emphasized that his campaign will appeal to all kinds of voters going forward, regardless of race, religion or sexual preference, adding that "people who were born in America and people who immigrated here" share his message.

-- Sarah Mimms

9:30pm: Kasich Takes Surprising Second

Ohio Gov. John Kasich will come in second place in New Hampshire, several news outlets including NBC and Fox News projected just after 9pm.

Kasich, who skipped the Iowa caucuses in favor of spending more time in New Hampshire, had risen in the polls in recent weeks. His second-place finish is a major boost to the campaign, which has earned far less media attention than his opponents' until this week.

He performed well in Saturday's Republican debate, the final before tonight's primary, and won the vote in Dixville Notch, the famous first precinct to vote in New Hampshire, just after midnight this morning. Dixville Notch has predicted the winner of the national Republican nominee in every presidential race since 1968.

Kasich has sought to portray himself as a "happy warrior" in an often contentious contest for the Republican nomination. Now his surprising showing will earn him big points in both fundraising and media attention.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are now all hovering around 11 percent of the vote for a third place finish, with 33 percent of precincts reporting.

-- Sarah Mimms

9pm: Clinton Concedes to Sanders

Shortly after media outlets called a victory for Sanders in the New Hampshire primary, Hillary Clinton called the Vermont senator to concede the race, NBC News reports.

JUST IN: Hillary Clinton has called Bernie Sanders to concede #NHPrimary - @kwelkernbc / @AlbaMonica

— NBC Nightly News (@NBCNightlyNews) February 10, 2016

In a memo released around the same time, Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said that the New Hampshire loss was long expected by the campaign.

"After splitting the first two contests, an outcome we've long anticipated, attention will inevitably focus on the next two of the'early four states," Mook wrote in the memo.

"The nomination will very likely be won in March, not February," Mook argued, "and we believe that Hillary Clinton is well positioned to build a strong – potentially insurmountable – delegate lead next month."

Clinton holds leads in the next two Democratic contests in Nevada and South Carolina according to recent polls.

-- Sarah Mimms

8:50pm: Sanders: "We Won"

With just 15 percent of precincts reporting, Sanders has declared victory in an email to supporters that opens with the jubilant remark: "We just won the New Hampshire primary."

"Nine months ago, if you told somebody that we would win the New Hampshire primary, they would not have believed you. Not at all. Too bold, they would have said. Not enough money to compete against the billionaires," the campaign wrote. "You showed them tonight."

That isn't the only reason that Sanders' win tonight is historic.

Bernie Sanders makes history by becoming the first Jewish candidate in US history to win a presidential primary. — Liz Fields (@lianzifields)February 10, 2016

Sanders celebrated before addressing supporters at his campaign victory party by playing basketball with his grandchildren.

This is how — MaryAlice Parks (@maryaliceparks)February 10, 2016

-- Liz Fields

8:10pm: Sanders, Trump Win; Republicans Battle for Second Place

Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have won their respective primaries in New Hampshire.

Although less than 10 percent of precincts have reported their results, the Associated Press called the race for both candidates just after 8pm Tuesday night. Sanders currently leads Hillary Clinton 51-40 percent, with 8 percent of Democratic precincts reporting. Trump leads the Republican field with 33 percent of the vote, with just 4 percent of precincts in.

Both candidates have held strong leads in the state for months and were expected to win their races this evening. But New Hampshire marks the first win for Sanders and for Trump, candidates who were initially expected not to perform well in a presidential race, much less make it this far.

As results continue to come in, the rest of the Republican candidates are now in a tight battle for second place. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in a relatively surprising second place with 17 percent, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio and then Ted Cruz in fourth. All four candidates are very close and many votes remain to be counted, so those rankings could change quickly.

Among Democrats, Sanders continued to lead with young voters, as he did in Iowa. But as the New York Times points out, citing exit polls, Sandersactually tied Clinton among voters between 45 and 64 years of age; a demographic that she won in the caucuses last week. Sanders also won "nearly every income group," the Times reports, except for families earning more than $200,000 per year.

Due to high turnout, some voters have not even voted yet and continue to wait in line to cast their votes, MSNBC reported.

The candidates will next head to primaries in South Carolina and caucuses in Nevada. Clinton currently leads Sanders in both of those contests and Trump leads the field in both states as well.

-- Sarah Mimms

7:20pm: We May Be Here a While

Larger-than-expected turnout and a new voter ID law are causing massive backups at the polls in New Hampshire, MSNBC reported this evening.

Although the polls were supposed to close at 7pm on Tuesday evening, anybody in line to vote at 7pm will be allowed to vote. Several precincts still have very long lines of would-be voters snaking around their polling places as the state experiences potentially record turnout.

Merrimack, the largest polling place in the state, in particular is seeing huge delays and will allow voters who are still in very lengthy lines to vote. And the lines aren't limited to just those standing around outside the polling area, but also cars stuck in a traffic jam trying to get in to vote, MSNBC reported.

Long lines, traffic delays in Merrimack, New Hampshire. LIVE Updates: — CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom)February 10, 2016

-- Sarah Mimms

6:30pm: Baba Steve Wants You -- To Vote for Trump

A Sikh man from Sarasota, Florida, who introduced himself as "Baba Steve," traveled up to New Hampshire to help get out the vote for his preferred candidate -- Donald Trump. Steve was also hawking his book, "Prescription for Condition Unconsciousness," which features a shirtless photo of himself on the back cover.

In an interview with VICE News' Michael Moynihan, Baba Steve said he had listened to all of the candidates, including the Democrats, but that he was impressed with Trump, his "beautiful" wife and family as well as his wealth. "He has all the money he needs," Baba Steve said. "He's looking for something beyond that."

Video by Ryan Nethery.

-- Sarah Mimms

6pm: Muslim Deportation Popular in NH. Signs Point to Sanders, Trump Wins.

Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters in New Hampshire tonight say they support banning all Muslims from the United States, at least "temporarily," according to early exit polls released by ABC News.

Strong support for the policy proposed by Donald Trump could explain his lead there in polling over the last several months, and offers more evidence that he will win the state tonight. Trump also leads the GOP field in the exit polls in terms of the candidate Republican voters most trust to handle the economy and any international crisis. Approximately 40 percent of Republican voters said that the United States should deport illegal immigrants, another of Trump's major policy proposals.

On the Democratic side, there's plenty of good news for Sanders. The Vermont senator has been leading, in some cases by 20 points, in New Hampshire in recent polls. Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters identify themselves as "liberal," according to ABC News exit polling, while 90 percent say that they believe the economy unfairly favors the wealthy.

New Hampshire voters still have an hour to get to the polls in many precincts, but the predictions of a record high turnout already seem to be accurate. Jeanne Woodward, a volunteer moderator at the Ward 5 polling station in Manchester, said voter turnout has been "unbelievable" today.

"It's surprising everyone," said Woodward. "Especially the number of new voters that are registering here. Honestly, it's unlike anything I've seen."

There was a steady stream of people filing into the elementary school gymnasium Tuesday afternoon and cars were lined up in the parking lot. A woman who gave her name as Sue was sitting outside bundled up in Trump sweatshirts and holding several "Make America Great Again" signs. This was her second shift of the day sitting outside Ward 5 (she started at 7 am) and agreed that the voter turnout had been unusually high.

"It's been great! Just a constant amount of people," Sue said.

Sue attributed the high levels of turnout to Trump supporters. Woodward on the other hand, said she thought more Democrats were registering as new voters. Either way, New Hampshire voters seem to proving again just how seriously they take their first-in-the-nation voting responsibility (Iowa does go first, but those are caucuses, not technically primary elections.)

According to ABC News' exit polls, four in ten voters in both primaries this evening identified themselves as independents, about what is normal for New Hampshire, a state that tends to back candidates from outside the establishment. By state law, independent voters are allowed to participate in the primaries and can vote in whichever party's primary they choose.

Although both Sanders and Trump have been leading here for months, their initial campaigns were seen as little more than tilting at windmills. The fact that either candidate could win New Hampshire tonight is significant.

-- Olivia Becker and Sarah Mimms

5:30pm: Where All the Candidates Eat Poutine

VICE News stopped by Chez Vachon, a diner and popular campaign stop for presidential candidates in Manchester, NH. To wit: Bill and Hillary Clinton, Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump have all visited the French-Canadian diner in the last three days. You can see campaign paraphernalia from 2016 going back through years of presidential campaigns on the restaurant's wall of fame.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Rand Paul and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley also made campaign stops to meet voters at the diner this cycle.

-- Sarah Mimms and Ryan Nethery

4:40pm: Kasich Lieutenant Governor: "I Feel the Momentum"

Ohio Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor, John Kasich's former runningmate, has been in New Hampshire contributing to the governor's ground game by going door-to-door and rallying with voters outside polling stations. Taylor was flanked by volunteers and supporters getting out the vote, during an interview with VICE News Tuesday.

-- Eric Fernandez

3:45pm: Rubio Hounded by Robots

Marco Rubio's "glitch" at the Republican debate Saturday night has come back to haunt him in the form of protesters dressed as robots who have spent the last two days following the Florida Senator from polling booth to campaign bus.

American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton, first deployed the "Marco Roboto" and "Marco Rubio Talking Point 3000" on the ground in New Hampshire over the weekend to follow Rubio around as he campaigned in the final days before the primary.

It was not clear whether another robot-costumed man who heckled Rubio as he entered a polling site at Bedford High School today was also affiliated with a particular group, or had simply chosen to spend his afternoon mocking the candidate's repetitive refrains from the debate and an event last night.

-- Liz Fields

3pm: Christie's Feeling Good

Presidential hopefuls are making a lot of "retail campaign" stops today in New Hampshire — kissing babies at diners, meeting teachers at the neighborhood elementary school, or tasting the famous chili at the local pub. New Jersey governor Chris Christie is the master of this type of campaigning. He has traveled to many of New Hampshire's small towns over the last year and today, he is making no less than six stops throughout the state to get out the vote.

Christie visited his presidential campaign headquarters in Bedford, NH this morning to visit with volunteers and staffers. The Governor was optimistic for his chances tonight in an exchange with reporters on the way in.

"The last 72 hours have been incredible, in terms of the crowds, the turnouts, the reactions, and the consistency." the Governor explained to reporters. "All anybody wants to talk to me about is the debate."

Christie said that he has no intention of suspending his campaign, regardless of the primary results on Tuesday evening in New Hampshire. He is currently running in sixth place in the state, with about 5-6 percent of the vote, according to recent polling.

Related: Presidential Candidates Are Putting a National Spotlight on New Hampshire's Heroin Problem

"I can't imagine a scenario tonight under which I wouldn't be on a plane to South Carolina tomorrow morning." Christie continued. "I'm not worried about the polls. The great thing about today is, after today, you're not going to be asking me about the polls in New Hampshire anymore."

After building up his troops at campaign, HQ, Christie stopped by T-Bones Great American Eatery in Derry, New Hampshire. Waiting to greet him was a bar about half-filled with locals, many of them Christie volunteers or supporters. The remaining space was quickly filled with press, who swarmed the entire restaurant when Christie arrival.

"It's totally not a good time. Chris Christie just walked in," the hostess complained on the phone at the front of the restaurant.

Jennifer DeFelice and her children Robert and Alexandra are Christie volunteers who came to T-Bones to greet him. DeFelice said she saw nine other Republican candidates before deciding to support Christie but made up her mind after meeting him in person. "He's beyond brilliant," she said.

DeFelice said she was "blown away" by the amount of support Christie has received so far in New Hampshire, citing the high numbers of people volunteering on his campaign in recent days, and firmly believes he is going to win. As we were talking, Christie's wife Mary Pat approached the table to greet the DeFelice family. "I've been meaning to call you!" Mary Pat said as she hugged Jennifer and told her about a recent campaign stop near Jennifer's hometown.

Related: Sanders Closes Huge Gap to Tie Clinton Nationally

Christie spent about 30 minutes talking to voters — at one point getting behind the bar for a photo op with the bartender, Angela — before making his way back to his campaign bus. On the way out he stopped for a question from a reporter about how he felt about Donald Trump's current lead. "We'll talk about Donald Trump when it's time to talk about Donald Trump," Christie said as he walked out the front door.

-- Olivia Becker and Eric Fernandez

2:30pm: Carson to Miss His Own New Hampshire Party

Dr. Ben Carson will reportedly skip his own primary watch party in New Hampshire tonight, his campaign told Politico. Carson will instead fly out to South Carolina this afternoon, ahead of the Republican primary there on February 20.

Just last week, the retired neurosurgeon prompted rumors of his impending withdrawal from the race after announcing he would be returning home to Florida during the Iowa caucuses. His campaign insisted the candidate was merely returning to fetch a "fresh clothes" and would later return to the campaign trail. Carson angrily denied he would be dropping out of the race, after the Ted Cruz campaign spread the false rumor to supporters. Carson, and Donald Trump, have repeatedly accused Cruz of employing "dirty tricks" over the incident. Carson finished fourth in Iowa.

-- Liz Fields

1:45pm: Christie and Kasich Pulling Out All the Stops

John Kasich's campaign headquarters is a small two story colonial-style house located just off the interstate highway in Manchester. When we visited this morning, there were about two dozen volunteers and staffers tucked in the various rooms busily making calls to voters. A platter of Dunkin' Donuts pastries was nestled on a table between what appeared to be hundreds of Kasich lawn signs, bumper stickers, and posters.

Kasich, who has struggled with name recognition and low poll numbers for much of the election, said that he will not continue on in the primary race if he does not perform well in New Hampshire. So it was not surprising to see that his campaign was going full-throttle today with a well-developed ground operation, consisting of 15 paid staffers and "hundreds and hundreds and hundreds" of volunteers, according to Kasich's New Hampshire spokesperson Emmalee Kalmbach.

Related: The Feminist Backlash Isn't Helping Hillary Clinton with Young Women

Since Kasich's poll numbers have slowly risen in New Hampshire in recent weeks, "there's been a significant increase in people just showing up here asking to help," said Kalmbach. Recent polls in the state have shown Kasich rising to a statistical tie for second place with Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

If there was ever a time to make a ground game count for Kasich, it was today in New Hampshire. Nearly half of New Hampshire voters are independent, which Kalmbach says has been somewhat frustrating since "they take forever to make up their mind." Yet everyone at his office still appeared to be optimistic at Kasich's chances tonight, rarely glancing up from their call sheets."We have heavily worked this state," Kalmbach said quietly, yet cheerfully.

Meanwhile, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who trails Kasich and other second-place-contenders in public polling, visited his campaign HQ this morning to fire up the troops. Christie and his wife, Mary Pat, greeted volunteers warmly, urging them not to let up and start celebrating until after the polls close at 7pm.

Related: Super PAC-Funded Jeb Bush Says There's Too Much Anonymous Money in Politics

Volunteers at Christie's campaign headquarters in Bedford, NH, spent Tuesday morning on the phones, calling around to voters and encouraging them to go out and vote for the governor.

-- Olivia Becker and Eric Fernandez

1pm: Good News for Sanders and Trump

When it comes to being the first-in-the-nation primary vote, New Hampshire residents take their civic responsibility very seriously. The state routinely has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the country, which is no small feat during a primary, considering that the majority of registered voters usually only participate in the general election. If at all.

None of the past year of retail campaign stops, volunteer calls, and lawn signs actually matters unless supporters of a candidate actually vote for them. This why the most important focus for campaigns today is their get out the vote effort. Campaigns will be expending massive energy and resources today into identifying supporters who said they would vote for them and making sure they get to the polls.

The higher the turnout tonight, the better news that is for Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders, experts say. And turnout is expected to be sky-high. New Hampshire's secretary of state Bill Gardner, who runs elections in the state, expects voter turnout to be at a record high, besting even 2008's totals. Gardner predicts that 282,000 Republicans and 268,000 Democrats will cast their votes. Despite speculation yesterday that the cold and snow would keep voters away from the polls, early reports indicate Gardner is right.

That high voter turnout will likely help Trump the most, says Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at University of Florida and expert on voter turnout rates. Many of Trump's supporters are what McDonald calls "low-propensity voters," people who are younger, lower-income, less-educated or otherwise often do not generally participate in the political process. When the obstacles to physically casting a vote increase, such as bad weather, McDonald says, these are the voters that are usually the first to sit it out. But when weather cooperates and campaigns make it easy for voters to get to the polls, more of these low-propensity voters will turn out.

Related: Michael Bloomberg Says He Might Run for President. Again.

Sanders stands to benefit from high voter turnout as well, says Bill Whalen, an expert on elections and political science at the Hoover Institute. Sanders relies on the same high-intensity voters to keep the "Bernie momentum alive" according to Whalen. The Vermont senator currently has a 26-point lead over Hillary Clinton according to thelatest poll by CNN/WMUR. But even if fewer Bernie supporters turn up at the polls to vote than expected, his staggering lead makes it unlikely that he will lose to Clinton here. As we've mentioned, Nate Silver famously predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections,puts Sanders chances of winning tonight at more than 99 percent.

Campaigns dread any surprises on election day, especially weather, that might affect turnout. "Smart organized campaigns will plan accordingly," says Whalen, which includes having buses on standby and a strong base of volunteers making identifying voters in need of rides and driving them to polling stations. Trump's loss in Iowa was largely attributed to a lack of this type of ground game that failed to get out the vote on caucus night. He is "making this gamble that star power can be as powerful, if not more powerful than organizational power," says Whalen. By the end of today, we'll find out if Trump has learned his lesson in the Granite State.

-- Olivia Becker

12:50pm: Ivanka! Ivanka!

Candidates have spent months and tens of millions of dollars campaigning in New Hampshire. Today is about turnout and a last-minute push to sway the state's infamously independent voters, who account for more than 40% of the electorate. In Salem, NH, Ivanka Trump does her best to use her star power to woo potential voters to vote for her father, Donald Trump. She's joined by her husband, Jared Kushner.

-- Andrew Glazer, Michael Moynihan and Ryan Nethery

12pm: It's Already Started

There might be more than seven hours left until the world knows who won the New Hampshire primary, but a few dozen voters in small towns in the Granite State have already registered their preferences.

In the twelve-person town of Dixville Notch, Democratic voters chose Bernie Sanders, 4-0, and Republicans picked Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 3-2. The tiny community is home to the longstanding, and well-publicized, tradition of being one of the first towns to vote in the first-in-the-nation primary. The town has accurately predicted the Republican nominee for every single race since 1968, which can explain why its results continue to be given outsized importance every election cycle.

New Hampshire law allows towns of fewer than 100 registered voters to cast their ballots at midnight, before the polls open statewide. The neighboring communities of Hart's Location and Millsfield also voted at midnight Tuesday. Of the 65 total combined votes between the three towns, Sanders won the Democrats, 17-9. Among Republicans, Kasich also won Hart's Location, with 5 out of fourteen votes, and Ted Cruz won Millsfield with nine out of 18 Republican votes. Cruz, Kasich and Donald Trump are now tied with 9 votes, split between the three towns, for first place as voters throughout the state begin voting. The polls close statewide at 7pm tonight.

Related: America's Election 2016: Gunning for New Hampshire

Here's what we're keeping an eye on today:

• The Democratic Margin: In New Hampshire, it's not so much a question of whether Sanders will win, but by how much. FiveThirtyEight, founded by polling guru Nate Silver, gives Sanders a 99 percent chance of winning the state, and he has lead in public polling by double-digits. Clinton's campaign has downplayed the significance of the state, arguing that Sanders hails from neighboring Vermont. Clinton's best hope tonight is to close the gap for a narrow loss of a few points.

• Can Anyone Topple Rubio? Yes, Rubio, not Trump. Polling shows that Trump will take the New Hampshire primary with a pretty easy margin and a loss here would be a major upset. The fight, instead, is for second place. After a strong third-place performance in Iowa last week, Rubio came into New Hampshire as the one to watch. But he's now in a statistical tie for second place with Cruz, Kasich and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Polling hasn't given a good picture of whether Saturday's tough debate has shaken up the race for Rubio. And don't forget New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Polling has shown Christie in 6th place, but he told MSNBC this morning that his campaign's post-debate-polling shows him in a much better position -- but wouldn't say by how much.

• John Kasich: The Ohio governor hasn't played a big role in the presidential race so far, but stands a decent chance of coming out of nowhere and taking second place in New Hampshire tonight. Kasich, a popular governor who has tried to portray himself as the nice guy in the room during this contentious race, skipped Iowa and is playing all of his cards in New Hampshire. Polls show him performing well in the Granite State and his strong debate performance Saturday could launch him into second place tonight. If things don't go his way, however, and he performs poorly, Kasich has said he'll drop out of the race tonight.

• Whittling Down the Candidates: So does anyone drop out tonight? There are still eleven candidates running for president and after Iowa and New Hampshire, funding could begin to dry up for some of the bottom-of-the-pack candidates. Christie, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson are running in the bottom three according to recent polling in New Hampshire -- and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore isn't even included in most of those polls. Christie has told audiences in New Hampshire that he already has his plane ticket to South Carolina, the next contest for the GOP. Carson and Fiorina have been less specific, with each camp saying that they are in the race "for the long haul".

Related: Marco Rubio Can't Stop Glitching, Continues to Repeat the Same Line Over and Over

-- Olivia Becker and Sarah Mimms