Wild Card Previews: Road Favorites, Home Questions

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (Saturday, 3:30 ET, ABC/ESPN)

These teams met in Week 1, when the Chiefs crushed the seemingly out-coached Texans defense. The two teams combined to go 3-9 over the first six weeks of the season, and then 17-4 down the stretch.

The Texans defense became healthy enough, and were coached well enough, to play as projection systems expected. They had just two of their last 10 games rated in positive DVOA (bad for defense), against Buffalo and (barely) against New England. The offense, meanwhile, has been as bad as you'd expect for a unit that has often had to employ backup backup quarterbacks. Brian Hoyer, healthy at the moment, was the primary QB in most games in which Houston posted above-average pass offense DVOAs. The fact that the Texans got pasted by the Dolphins while he accumulated one of those should tell you a lot.

The Chiefs present an almost complete challenge to Houston: Kansas City can pound the rock, and tight end Travis Kelce is a tough matchup against safeties and linebackers. Tackle Duane Brown will miss this game, as well—though that may be less of a problem than you'd think. Kansas City's defense has been tough all season, and their elite pass rushers will be healthy for this game. Finally, Dave Toub's special teams have been excellent. Meanwhile, the Texans finished dead last in special teams DVOA.

The path for Houston to win this game involves field goals and fluke plays. Their defense needs to make sure that Kansas City's only reward for good drives is three points. On offense, they need DeAndre Hopkins to post someone up deep. Assuming the Chiefs don't score many touchdowns, Houston shouldn't get an unmanageable game script. Unmanageable doesn't mean "winning," however.

Pick: Kansas City 23, Houston 13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday, 7:15 ET, CBS)

These rivals split their regular season games, but this Wild Card meeting feels anti-climactic. Yes, the Steelers did have to luck into the playoffs and yes, they're on the road, but the Bengals are the team that limped down the stretch.

For the Bengals, doctors have not cleared Andy Dalton to play in this game as of Friday morning. Backup quarterback A.J. McCarron has been able to keep things mostly turnover-free, but he is purely a game manager. A.J. Green can turn game managers into touchdown scorers, but Cincinnati's best hope here is that the Steelers beat themselves, like by being overly reliant on the run game.

Pittsburgh will likely be without DeAngelo Williams, which means the carries will fall to Fitzgerald Toussaint, who has averaged 2.2 yards per carry on 54 NFL attempts. That doesn't mean he's definitely bad, but the fact that he's done less than the other two Pittsburgh backs this year sure has me strongly considering the possibility.

The best unit in this game on talent is the Pittsburgh passing attack. They've been slow over the past few weeks while Martavis Bryant was stuck in neutral. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, the Steelers' key offensive players, dressed their teammate down about it, and Bryant—wait, he actually accepted the criticism? Are we sure he's a NFL player?

The Bengals will probably hang in this game. The Steelers aren't dominant, and they do tend to play to their competition. I have a hard time believing that Cincy is going to get more than a field goal on a late McCarron drive, though, and for that reason, the lean is Pittsburgh.

Pick: Pittsburgh 26, Cincinnati 21

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 2 ET, NBC)

There are many factors I consider when trying to predict who will win a football game. Quarterback play. Rushing attack play. Defense. Special teams. Places where a matchup could be exposed. Consistency versus high variance. You get the picture.

This is one of the few playoff games I can remember where, based on what we've seen on the field, there's no reason to pick one team. The Vikings are an empirically worse team than the Seahawks in every conceivable way. Their defense has improved of late, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has had better games down the stretch. Russell Wilson has been at an MVP-level over the past two months, and Seattle's defense has been dominant.

There are other reasons to believe in Minnesota, though. Start with the home field. Continue on to arctic weather conditions (3 degrees Fahrenheit with a -2 wind chill). Then remember the Seahawks are waking up early and flying from the West Coast for a quick start. I don't think there's a lot of hard evidence that any of these things are definitely factors that make Seattle ripe for an upset. I do think they could all come into play and help the Vikings out here.

Then there's Adrian Peterson. Rushing title and all, Peterson only had a 2.2 percent DVOA—17th among all starting NFL backs. By the numbers, the Seahawks are a much better rushing team, and they get Marshawn Lynch back in this game. Peterson is one of the best backs in NFL history, though, and he can still break off a big play at any moment.

So I've set this up over the past few paragraphs and…no, I can't pick the Vikings. I just don't think they're an even match for the Seahawks, but given how disappointing Seattle's season has tended to be, I would forgive you if you leaned away from them.

Pick: Seattle 29, Minnesota 16

Green Bay Packers at Washington Skins (Sunday, 5:40 ET, FOX)

Next on "As Kirk Cousins Turns," a playoff matchup against a once mighty quarterback who has fallen victim to the ravages of poor receiver play. Will Kirk continue to be confident enough to decimate the team? Will this Aaron Rodgers fellow be able to overcome his circumstances and deliver a plucky upset?

Is Kirk Cousins good? The answer over the past couple months has been a resounding yes. The teams Washington played weren't exactly world-beaters, though: during his six-game Scorch the Earth tour, Cousins didn't face a single defense that finished above average in DVOA. He did play Chicago (31st) and New York (30th).

Green Bay finished ninth in defense, and as much grief as Packers fans give Dom Capers, this isn't a situation where you'd expect failure. Cousins isn't a quarterback who threatens you with a ton of deep balls, nor is he any kind of run threat. This is a perfect place for the zone blitz, especially against a quarterback with a history of not reading underneath defenders.

Then we have the Green Bay offense. How healthy are they? Well, their offensive line started their best guard at left tackle Sunday night. Shockingly, they lost the game, and their division. Star wideout Randall Cobb has been playing hurt all year. None of the other Green Bay receivers can move the needle. Eddie Lacy alternates great games with weeks where he runs downhill like a pile of flubber. There's just not much to recommend on this side of the ball besides the fact that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL.

I do think that Cousins will get throttled a bit during this game. I just don't believe he's this good. As bad as the Skins defense is, I can't see Washington giving up more than 23 points, given how the past few weeks have played out for the Packers.

Pick: Washington 24, Green Bay 22