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Ranking the Second-Tier AFC Contenders

We look at the AFC playoff picture, where several teams have almost already have secured spots.
photo by Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A lot has already been decided in the AFC in the first seven weeks. The Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots look like 90 percent locks for playoff spots at 6-0. But also, seven teams have five or more losses. Someone may end up winning the AFC South with seven wins. The conference has become a parody of parity.

Read More: Dumb Football With Mike Tunison, Week 7

Let's take a look at what's left of the AFC playoff picture. Assuming that the undefeateds will take three of the spots, and acknowledging that the AFC South has to send somebody to the playoffs, that leaves five teams near .500 or better competing for two spots. Here's my read of their situations:

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In The Driver's Seat

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 4-3

Remaining Schedule: 5.5% DVOA (5th) -- through Week 6

Reasons to Believe: The Steelers should finally get Ben Roethlisberger back next week. At that point they'll have a full slate of healthy skill position players for the first time all season. Martavis Bryant has already been frightening in two games with Landry Jones. Think of what could happen with a credible quarterback. Despite a lot of skepticism about their defense coming into the year, Pittsburgh actually was 15th in DVOA through Week 6.

Reasons for Pessimism: Outside of the remaining schedule — only two Browns games and a Ravens game among sad teams — there's not much to think poorly about here. They have been banged up on the offensive line, losing Kelvin Beachum to an ACL tear and seeing a setback with Maurkice Pouncey. But I think they're the clear favorite for this spot on talent alone.

(Thinks about Mike Tomlin's game management and Pittsburgh's ability to play down to their competition over the past couple seasons.)

You're right, this is still wide open.

New York Jets

Record: 4-2

Remaining Schedule: 2.7% DVOA (14th) -- through Week 6

Reasons to Believe: New head coach Todd Bowles has a legitimate defense. The Jets were second in defensive DVOA heading into Week 7, behind only the Broncos. The Patriots did just smack them around, but the Patriots smack everybody around. They also have at least a half-game in hand on every team on the list. That matters. And, with three games against the soft underbelly of the AFC South, they may only need to win two of their seven other games to snag a playoff spot.

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Reasons for Pessimism: Ryan Fitzpatrick is eventually going to turn into a pumpkin. The Jets have done a hell of a job putting him in the same light the Texans did last season: good line, good running game, and good No. 1 receiver. The Jets aren't going to win any games that Fitzpatrick has to win for them. That doesn't mean they can't make the playoffs, and it doesn't even mean they can't win playoff games in the right scenario. It does mean that they're confined to fringe-contender status.

Derek Carr has the Raiders in the playoff picture. Photo by Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Could Capitalize on Stumbles

Oakland Raiders

Record: 3-3

Remaining Schedule: 0.9% DVOA (17th) -- through Week 6

Reasons to Believe: Oakland's offense has worked rather well when not tasked by opposing teams (Denver) to throw deep. While I don't think they deserve to be the sad honoree of the "next triplets" curse that has fallen many teams, the Raiders have some decent young players at key positions in Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Latavius Murray. Their offensive line is solid enough to keep Carr clean. Michael Crabtree has been a successful reclamation project. Finally, the defense has been better than expected, although I'm not yet sold on all the talent.

Reasons for Pessimism: Though the DVOA numbers like their schedule, I actually don't. Oakland plays the Titans and Lions, but also has four games against division foes who have been empirically better than say, a team that still gets to play the AFC South. I think the Jets can force Carr to throw deep. I think the Vikings can as well. And you never want to see the Packers left on the slate. Moreover, their biggest hole is pass defense, where they ranked 23rd in DVOA coming into Week 6. And while they jumped to a big lead against the Chargers, at the end of the day Philip Rivers still had 336 passing yards and three scores. Even the down teams they play at least have some semblance of a passing game.

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Miami Dolphins

Record: 3-3

Remaining Schedule: 8.5% DVOA (2nd) -- through Week 6

Reasons to Believe: Welcome to the Dan Campbell era! The Dolphins have convincingly trounced the Titans and Texans in back-to-back weeks. While these opponents were weak, the fact that they stomped them means something to me. The running game with Lamar Miller is working again, now that deposed head coach Joe Philbin isn't around to call 10 consecutive passes after every two-yard rush. Nobody liked former defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle either, and the Dolphins have left a trail of broken quarterbacks in his wake. If Philbin had been deposed at the start of the season, I would've backed the Dolphins as a preseason favorite. Everything about this team looked good except for the head coach and questionable starting quarterback.

Reasons for Pessimism: The Dolphins have, by far, the hardest remaining schedule in this mix. They haven't played the Patriots yet and are already 0-2 in the division, which will make it hard for them to win tiebreaks. The data that we collected pre-Campbell may lack the current context, but it all pointed to the Dolphins underachieving. The only data we have with Campbell is tainted by the fact that the teams Miami has played have sucked. Their next five games are: road games against every division rival they have, at Philadelphia, and hosting Dallas. They could easily be 4-7 by next month. And at that point, how silly would all this Campbell toughness crap look?

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Seems Unlikely

Buffalo BIlls

Record: 3-4

Remaining Schedule: 3.5% DVOA (12th) -- through Week 6

Reasons to Believe: The Bills have lost two in a row by fielding backup quarterback EJ Manuel, who single-handedly dug the Bills a hole against the Jaguars last week. When Buffalo managed to comeback against Jacksonville, Manuel made it impossible to put together any sort of two-minute drive. While Tyrod Taylor hasn't necessarily been great, he's at least outplayed Manuel. Buffalo's defense and a competent quarterback play should be enough to get them into the playoffs.

Reasons for Pessimism: This defense has played well below expectations. And with just two sacks against Blake Bortles, they continued a season-long trend of inexplicably mediocre results given the amount of pass-rushing talent they have. (Letting Bortles lead a successful two-minute drill on you is a bad sign too.) Star lineman Kyle Williams is hurt. They have just one AFC South game left on the schedule. Wideout Percy Harvin is debating retirement after more hip injury pain. First-round wideout Sammy Watkins can't stay healthy. Neither LeSean McCoy nor Karlos Williams are currently healthy. Mascot Billy Buffalo is apparently the only healthy employee in the organization. And, of course, they're already down at least a game in the loss column to the four teams they're chasing. It wouldn't necessarily surprise me if the Bills came back, because they do have a ton of talent on this team and the bye week could get their players healed up. But they have a lot to overcome at this point.