Polarizing Fantasy Players: Cam Newton

(Editor's note: From now until the start of the season, VICE Sports will look at some of fantasy football's most polarizing players.)

In his first three NFL seasons, Cam Newton finished third, fourth and third among fantasy quarterbacks. But in 2014, Newton ranked just 15th among signal callers. As he enters his fifth season, the Carolina Panthers' Superman has lost his best outside weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, which only adds to fantasy players' concerns. At this time last year, Newton appeared to be locked in as a no-brainer fantasy starter for the better part of a decade. Now? There's real doubt.

So Newton is a pivotal player this year because for the first time since his '11 rookie season, he'll come at a draft-day discount. On average, he's currently being selected late in the ninth round of 12-team fantasy drafts, a far cry from the top-50 status he enjoyed for most of last summer. If Big Cam bounces back this season he could be the key ingredient in a fantasy championship. But relying on him as your starting QB could have you looking for alternative solutions all season long.

Losing Benjamin—who ended '14 with a shocking nine TDs, 73 receptions and 1,008 yards as a rookie—to a torn ACL is awful news for the Panthers pass attack. No question, Newton envisioned his big second-year wideout as a primary target for '15, and now will hope to cobble together a receiving corps from the likes of Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown and rookie Devin Funchess. But this isn't the part of Newton's fantasy stock that freaks me out most.

Sure, it'll be easier on the big QB if he can find reliable receivers other than tight end Greg Olsen. But the hard truth is that we were never drafting Newton for his arm. He's never eclipsed 24 aerial touchdowns in any of his four seasons, and he's been well below 4,000 yards passing in three straight campaigns. On tape, I see a quarterback with elite arm strength but spotty accuracy and so-so decision making. Like a lot of NFL signal callers, he can get hot, but he also can lose his touch for quarters and halves at a time.

No, the reason to consider drafting Cam Newton has always been his running prowess. He's got 33 rushing TDs in 62 career regular-season games, and has never failed to rack up 500 rushing yards in a season. The reason for Newton's disappointing '14 was less about problems throwing—heck, he had Benjamin last year—and more about a series of ailments that caused the Panthers to rein him in as a runner. Newton and was hobbled by ankle surgery last offseason, and then broke his ribs in a preseason game and had to miss Week 1 altogether. In his first four contests last year, he rushed a total of 14 times, after averaging 7.5 carries per game in his first three seasons.

Newton did show flashes as the year progressed: He ended the regular season with a rushing TD in three straight games while notching 30 combined rush attempts. More important than statistics, Newton had that same dangerous look about him, prowling around the backfield and making deceptively quick first steps after deciding to take off. The nontraditional fantasy star we remembered from his first three campaigns seemed to be back.

Now the question is: Will Newton return to his running ways again? I think he almost has to, because of Benjamin's knee, and because running back Jonathan Stewart is such an injury risk, too. The Panthers may be hard-pressed to generate much offense unless Newton takes chances outside the pocket. That explains my ranking of Newton: I still have him 10th among signal callers, a low-level fantasy starter with weekly upside.

But I don't want to completely discount the possibility that Newton may be asked to change his running ways for good. Since '01, only two QBs—Michael Vick and Kordell Stewart—eclipsed 500 yards rushing in a year after their fourth pro season. And that makes sense: running QBs get beaten up and it takes a cumulative toll. We should know relatively early this year whether Big Cam has changed his playing style; unfortunately, we probably can't know in time for you to consider Newton a truly safe selection on draft day.

My advice? Waiting to select a quarterback in your draft and then taking Newton later on is fine. Just make sure you get a high-end backup, too. Newton simply isn't a good enough passer to be a fantasy star without his legs.

Christopher Harris has a daily podcast called the Harris Football Podcast, available on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and wherever else you download. You can also find his podcasts, ranks and videos at www.HarrisFootball.com.