Oh God an Article About Bill Shorten, Jesus Why?

This article first appeared in February 2016. Thanks to the algorithm, it's back.

If we are going to discuss Australian politics, then the uncomfortable truth is that every now and we'll have to have to talk about Bill Shorten. Nobody wants this. Nobody. But it's our duty as responsible citizens to be aware of the man who is, at least on paper, a contender for the Prime Ministership. Look, we can do this if we stick together.

Bill Shorten and the Art of Being Relatable

For those unfamiliar with the name "Bill Shorten"—and I'm including career political journalists as well as members of the Labor party—he is the leader of the Australian Labor Party, and the person most likely to lead Labor into a Malcolm Turnbull Landslide Win Shindig later this year.

The question that never seems to go away is this: why does Labor not simply replace Shorten?

There are a number of more popular candidates who would undoubtedly do a better job of energising the public: Tanya Plibersek, Anthony Albanese, and Penny Wong are among the names often mooted as desirable candidates, regardless of their interest or eligibility for the role. Each of them has energy and charisma, qualities Bill is not famed for possessing.

If you need an example, take this news story from a couple of weeks ago: Shorten, in an attempt to connect to everyday Earthlings, went shopping with a family and helped them choose their groceries by extending his right protuberance 80 degrees, clutching product with fingers, retract protuberance, deposit product in wheeled receptacle, end program. It was great to see Bill being so relatable.

But that's not why the lettuce controversy (or Pistiagate as nobody agreed to call it) came to be. Feeling chatty and loose, Bill asked the woman he'd helped what her favourite type of lettuce was. She told him it was iceberg. Encouraged by the success of his investigation, Shorten then asked her teenage son what his favourite lettuce was. Friday nights at the Shorten household must just fly by. There is more to the footage than just this exchange, but you don't get people clicking through to an article by simply putting "Bill Shorten" in the headline. You need to sex it up with "lettuce". Give people a reason to read. See, it worked on you too.

Labor Can't Ditch Him, Even if They Want to

The lettuce story didn't gain traction because it was a career-destroying embarrassment, but because it was emblematic of an era of Labor leadership that is watery, digestible, and hardly memorable on its own. If Paul Keating was described as a Man of Letters, then Bill Shorten is Labor's Man of Lettuce. And that's exactly why he's not going anywhere.

When Kevin Rudd did the sequel to becoming Prime Minister, the idea of randomly changing leaders based on the whims of a faceless few was beginning to get the whiff of farce. So in July 2013, the Labor caucus voted in new rules that would make it practically impossible to depose a sitting PM. This decision would ensure consistency and fidelity in the leadership, and restore confidence that the person in the top job would remain there.

Two months later, Rudd stepped down as Labor leader. But what a stable two months! Not a single leadership challenge or spill rumour to be seen. Yes, he lost an election, but losing elections and then having no choice but to resign is a small price to pay to hold onto power.

Actually, They Can

The new voting rules stated that the leader can only be elected with an equally weighted ballot of caucus and party members. Of course, Labor decided not to include these rules in their national constitution, which means they can be bypassed any time they feel like. It's a non-binding rule, or, as it's better known, a bunch of words with no power or consequence at all.

The far more effective rule is the rule of public opinion, which has been, "Good lord, Labor's had a lot of leaders lately, and at least half of them have been Kevin Rudd." This reputation is slowly diminishing, thanks to Kevin Rudd leaving Parliament, Wayne Swan nailing wooden boards to the secret tunnels Kevin made so he can't get back in, and the Liberals doing the exact thing they kept mocking Labor for, namely knifing a PM in his first term. The electorate may not think Shorten is particularly effective, but they'll sure respect the way he manages to not lose his job for a few years.

Not Even a Swing Against Turnbull Will Help Shorten

That brings us to Malcolm Turnbull. It's extremely unlikely that Turnbull will see his lead fall away in the coming months. The only way that would happen is if he makes any sort of statement regarding the issues we know he cares about—gay marriage, climate change, the republican movement—and there's little chance of that happening between now and the election.

If Shorten's lack of success can be attributed to the perception that he has no strong beliefs, then Turnbull's success is based on holding strong beliefs but having the good grace to hide them away in a box under the floorboards.

But let's say Turnbull's support does drop. Let's say something extraordinary happens and the electorate decides in the coming months that six months is long enough and the honeymoon is over. That's still not good news for Bill Shorten.

Because Bill is not the only one who is waiting for Turnbull to falter. As we reported , Abbott has announced that he will spend the next three years waiting in the wings, like an opera ghost with a chandelier fetish. And unless Turnbull's drop in popularity coincides perfectly with the election, then Abbott is perfectly poised to swoop in and take the leadership while Shorten's still waiting for his go. This may work out as well for Abbott as it did for Rudd, but we still have to imagine a scenario in which Australia elects Bill Shorten PM.

But There Won't Be a Swing Against Turnbull

There's another reason that nobody's going to challenge Shorten between now and the election, and that's that it is the worst possible time to become Labor leader. Turnbull's support is strong enough that any of the previously-mentioned replacements would find themselves saddled with an almost-certain loss the moment they took over.

And this is the primary reason that Labor is keeping Bill where he is. Proof that they can be loyal to a leader for an impressive three years before he's slowly fed to the crocodiles.

Congratulations! You have made it all the way to the end of an article about Bill Shorten. Now you can reward yourself by not reading anything else about him until the end of February. Hell, make it the start of March. You've earned it.

Follow Lee on Twitter