China in Driving Seat as Rajapaksa Brothers Projected to Win Sri Lanka’s Parliamentary Polls

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s party is expected to win a two-thirds majority against a scattered Opposition as voting ended on August 5 in the elections for Sri Lanka’s 16th Parliament.

The results, to be declared on August 6 afternoon, are expected to return Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa for a fourth term. Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has served a 10-year term as President of the country, is also the elder brother of the incumbent President.

The Rajapaksas’ victory is also expected to strengthen China’s influence in Sri Lanka. The Chinese government has made substantial investments in Sri Lanka, which occupies a strategic location along international shipping routes in the Indian Ocean, during the tenures of both Rajapaksa brothers.

On Wednesday, over 16 million voters in the country were eligible to elect 225 members of Parliament for a five-year term. Some 70 parties, 313 independent groups and 7,452 candidates were represented in the election, held with ballot papers. More than 40 percent voter turnout was reported in most districts.  

The election was postponed twice this year because of the pandemic. Officials have called it the country's costliest poll due to health and security arrangements caused by COVID-19. Voters were asked to observe social distancing and to bring their own pens, while special booths were set up for those still in quarantine. 

Political analysts and rights groups look at the expected victory of the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) to be a continuation of dynastic politics and the emboldening of authoritarianism in the country. 

Gotabaya had appointed Mahinda as the Prime Minister in November 2019, when he was elected as the island’s new President. 

Mahinda leads the SLPP, which has been described as a Sinhalese-Buddhist nationalist party. His youngest brother Basil leads the Sri Lanka People’s Freedom Alliance (SLPFA) coalition, under which the SLPP and its allies are contesting the poll. 

The Parliamentary election is seen as crucial for the Rajapaksa brothers, who will be able to amend the Constitution if they win. In fact, some political analysts feel the ongoing pandemic allowed the government to use curfews, police control and military enforcement as an advantage during campaigning. 

Amending the Constitution has long been the Rajapaksas’ campaign promise. Early this month, Mahinda called for a two-thirds majority of the new Parliament to repeal the 19th amendment, which limits the powers of the executive presidency. He called it a “personal revenge” and accused it of turning the Constitution “a joke.” 

Rights groups warned that if the Constitution is amended, it will lead to “unconstitutional executive rule of the administration” and “aggressive state-sponsored ‘Sinhalisation’ of traditional Tamil and Muslim provinces.”

The Rajapaksas and the ruling SLPP see massive support from the country’s Buddhist majority—mainly ethnic Sinhalese—who make up 70 percent of the country’s total population of 22 million. 

Nationalist groups such as the Bodu Bala Sena (Army of Buddhist Power) campaigned hard for Gotabaya last year. The brothers were also instrumental in crushing the 26-year-long Tamil separatist movement which ended under Mahinda’s presidency. 

Last year, Islamic State-inspired suicide attacks by local militants in Sri Lanka’s prominent churches and hotels spurred the already existing discrimination and sporadic violence against Muslims particularly by hardline Buddhist nationalist groups. Gotabaya’s election last year as the president increased the community’s fear of more violence and vilification.

Ahead of the polls, news reports stated an increased crackdown on critics of the government, including journalists and human rights defenders. "A campaign of fear has intensified since the 2019 presidential election, and has cast a shadow over the 2020 parliamentary election campaign," read a joint statement by 10 international rights groups including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. 

“As far as democracy is concerned, if the Rajapaksas get two-thirds, or close enough, all dissent will be out of the window. You will have a strong, authoritarian government,” Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, the Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, told Al Jazeera. 

The outcome in Sri Lanka will also determine the continued Chinese influence in the island nation. China’s engagement in the island nation rose substantially after Mahinda became the president in 2005. As part of its growing influence in South Asia, China upped its presence in Sri Lanka by financing billion-dollar infrastructure projects and debt relief. 

Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings estimates that Sri Lanka’s debt servicing obligations over 2021-2025 amount to an average of US$4.3 billion per year. In that, the country owes China’s Belt and Road Initiative—a project that is touted as a debt trap for vulnerable countries—a loan of US$8 billion. The debt also gave China a strategic control over a critical commercial and military waterway. 

Over the years, the Rajapaksas sidestepped diplomatic relations with India along with the pro-Western ties that the previous administrations harnessed. The return of the Rajapaksas is expected to tip the geopolitical balance in favour of China even more. 

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