Aldo versus McGregor: A Clash of Kings

Come Sunday morning there are going to be a whole lot of sore losers and just as many bitter winners. The Aldo versus McGregor hype has been going on so long and with such venom from the fans and detractors of both that it seems hard to believe that the fight will finally to take place in a few days time. What will we do with ourselves afterwards, in a world without Aldo-McGregor?

Well, a large percentage of MMA fans will commit themselves to taking a verbal dump all over the defeated man and a good number will start preparing excuses for him. Of course that heat will lead into the inevitable immediate rematch which will leave the winner of Frankie Edgar versus Chad Mendes twiddling their thumbs for another half a year.

"Conor McGregor has fought nothing but tailor made match ups against strikers and one wrestler on short notice who quickly gassed out." "Aldo is getting old and slow, and his striking just isn't on McGregor's level." "When Aldo kicks McGregor in the legs, he'll break him." "When Aldo kicks McGregor in the legs, McGregor will check." There are pages and pages of debate on MMA websites about just how viable the right low kick is for Aldo. For now at least, everyone wants to pretend that they know exactly how it's going to go and I'm quite happy to come before you and say that I don't have a damn clue.

But that is what has me so excited. Perhaps it is the hype, perhaps it is not having seen Jose Aldo fight in over a year after watching him struggle against Chad Mendes, and perhaps it is the fact that while McGregor has been fighting regularly we have seen so little of his game outside of the striking. I have no idea who I'm leaning towards. What I can do, however, is show you the tendencies of both men, the methods that have been proven against the tendencies time and again, and discuss ideal gameplans.

I won't go over every wrinkle of either man's game, but I would highly recommend you watch my Ringcraft video analysis of Conor McGregor's evolution over the past few years before we get going:

Wipe the ideas of "greatest of all time", "pound-for-pound" and all that other subjective, meaningless nonsense from your head for a moment (in fact, if you can do it permanently that might serve you well) and let's talk about a match up between tow styles. This is one which has intrigued me since McGregor burst onto the scene for one reason: the southpaw left straight.

The Game Breaker

From day one, it has been McGregor's money punch. In fact, in most of his matches its the only meaningful punch. He rarely jabs, he only really hooks when he's got his man hurt and unresponsive, it's that pin point left straight which does the job. Southpaws aren't as rare in MMA as they historically have been in boxing, but even fewer of them have mastered that left straight.

A masterful southpaw left straight is a game breaker. From Benny Leonard to Floyd Mayweather, the best boxers in the game have struggled with them. In a standard orthodox vs orthodox (or southpaw vs southpaw) match up, which we term 'Closed Guard', the left shoulder is lined up best with the opponent's centerline and can fire through the middle with the most ease in the form of the jab. The difference in a southpaw vs orthodox engagement—termed 'Open Guard'—is that the punch which occupies this line is now a blow with full hip rotation, bodyweight application and fight finishing possibilities.

Aldo has fought just a couple of southpaws in recent memory, Kenny Florian in 2011 and Jonathan Brookins all the way back in 2008. Brookins was almost exclusively a grappler, and while Florian's hands were improving towards the end of his career he was not known as a boxer. Certainly neither had that tremendous left straight.

It might seem like a small factor—just one punch off of one hand—but it's the real keystone strike in a southpaw versus orthodox match up and it is the one which makes southpaws such an avoided commodity in the boxing ring. When you combine it with McGregor's reach and length, and the fondness he has always had for the left high kick, it becomes an even bigger deal. The left high kick serves to deter the opponent from slipping to the elbow side of the left straight when it comes and forces him to stand more upright.

To see an example of this watch any of the fights where Ross Pearson has been clocked cleanly with punches—he's gloriously tough to lay a glove on until someone starts trying to kick him while he's slipping, then suddenly he's not keen to do it again and stands upright, trying to fight a fight that he isn't used to. As Aldo has been showing more and more head movement in answer to punches of late, the left high kick, left straight double attack asks a lot of questions of the champion and could well be enough to win the fight on its own if Aldo hasn't made the necessary adjustments and preparation.

Telling you how Aldo will respond to that double attack is beyond me, but a look at Fedor Emelianenko's dismantling of a prime Mirko Cro Cop will give you an idea of how it can be done. Because Emelianenko was constantly walking Cro Cop down, the Croatian sensation's feet were never set for long enough to kick. Fedor pounded Cro Cop's body with blows so that by the second round he was struggling to even throw the high kick up. But Fedor had to walk a tightrope between having his rear hand ready to parry a punch or be high and outside to stop a high kick, and he got hit a good amount in the process. There is no easy answer to the left high kick, left straight double attack and that's what makes it such a powerful method. Though circling away from that side works well if the southpaw is very left side heavy, as McGregor is.

Fedor versus Cro Cop was one of the finest dismantlings of a kicker you will see in MMA, along with Dos Anjos versus Pettis.

But as we laid out in the above episode of Ringcraft, McGregor has done a great job of changing himself and adding new weapons. The wheel kick and back kick to punish or deter circling away from his left side—where almost all of his offence comes from—and the front snap kick which is basically the southpaw left straight of the kicking game seem the most significant. Supposedly it was one of these back kicks in training which put Aldo out of action before the first booking of this fight, you're free to speculate over that.

The Known Unknowns

The great question mark has always been McGregor's grappling game. There's no arguing he wasn't sheltered from the wrestlers en route to his title shot, but in his bout against Chad Mendes he proved he could beat one of the best. The problem is that the question mark over his wrestling isn't so much a question mark as an exclamation point. Or perhaps even an interrobang?

McGregor was taken down readily and repeated by Mendes who, aside from these, looked ill prepared and clumsy. Mendes spent most of the fight standing in front of McGregor and eating his straight kicks, utilizing none of the lateral movement which had appeared in his tremendous showing against Aldo a few months before. Just like you would expect from someone who hadn't been training for a big fight against the most dangerous body kicker in the division. In the current state of McGregor-mania, saying that Mendes clearly wasn't prepared for the fight is enough to form a lynch mob, but anyone who can watch a fight competently could see that.

Jose Aldo's takedowns have always been pretty darn good and he's rag-dolled some of the best wrestlers in the division, but he seems to go to them on a whim. It rarely seems to be part of the gameplan and perhaps that is why it impresses every time he utilizes his takedowns and his incredible transitions on the ground.

I would love to see Aldo mix his striking into takedowns as part of a disciplined gameplan, but I would be just as happy to see McGregor force Aldo into a takedown by hurting him on the feet. There's simply nothing so frustrating to me as seeing a fighter refuse to push his advantage in one area of the game in favor of an evenly matched fight in another.

Those Kicks Though…

So let's get to those low kicks. Aldo's biggest weapon in the minds of many. How does the southpaw stance affect them? Well, it really depends. If you're looking to set up big swinging kicks at the opponent's inner lead leg, you give him a good chance to pick his foot up and check you. Indeed, much of this speculation has arisen because of the footage of McGregor breaking an opponent's leg with one such check.

It used to be that we pretended that these injuries were fluke. While a shin bone snapping straight in half is pretty rare, injuring your leg or foot on a check is not down to luck. If you kick with power straight into a shin bone—particularly the top of a shin where the bone is thickest, just under the knee—you stand a great chance of injuring yourself. It's the difference between kicking a heavy bag and kicking the wall. When you land right, you want to hurt muscle. Bone on bone is a connection which is far from ideal for the kicker. If you kick hard enough to break legs, you kick hard enough to break your own after all.

And when Ray Sefo, Anderson Silva, Tyrone Spong and so many others have fallen victim to it, it starts to look a lot more like one of those cases of great fighters falling victim to forgetting their fundamentals more than it does a series of flukes. And Aldo's done it too—not into a check so much as mistiming Chan Sung Jung as the Korean Zombie stepped. The top of Aldo's foot clacked off of Jung's kneecap and with the first kick of the fight he had hobbled himself. Power kicking is a dangerous business, no two ways about it. Generally, that is why it is best to either set kicks up, time them well, or not throw them as hard as you possibly can all the time.

Now McGregor's wide, almost side on stance would be a tremendous disadvantage for an orthodox fighter because the longer a stance is the more the front foot tends to turn in naturally. For a southpaw, against a man who kicks almost exclusively with his right leg, it's almost advantageous, starting in a position which is closer to checking the kick. It does, however, leave him exposed to kicks to the outside of the lead leg just as the Diaz brothers suffered throughout their careers. Aldo seems to refuse to throw his left leg outright in the majority of his fights, but he did some decent damage to Brookins back in the day with his left leg in this way.

To have success with his rear leg kicks against easily the best striker he's faced spare perhaps Frankie Edgar, it would be good to see Aldo fighting a little on the counter as McGregor has proven so keen to lead lately. Using the left hand to parry McGregor's left front kicks across the body, or taking the left high kick against the right forearm and then using the left hand to scoop it across the body in the same way, would momentarily expose the back of McGregor's rear leg—usually far less conditioned to taking punishment—and leave McGregor in a hurry to return stance and out of position to check with his lead leg. Essentially this would give Aldo opportunities to punish either leg, and deter McGregor from leading with his kicks.

Another interesting strategy for timing the kick to when McGregor cannot check was also demonstrated in that Fedor vs Cro Cop tilt I mentioned earlier. Kicking underneath the kick. It takes some timing but nothing takes it out of an opponent's legs and gas tank faster than punting his base out every time he throws up an energy consuming kick. Especially interesting as Poirier, Siver and Holloway all knocked out McGregor's standing leg as he kicked seemingly by coincidence. Someone specifically aiming to time him would not be short on chances to try with the frequency of his leading with set up free kicks.

Game Plans

For the challenger, the gameplan seems quite clear. Use the reach advantage and the power and speed of the linear kicks and punches. Deny Aldo's favorite left hook and jab with the lead hand, and score with the left straight and front snap kick. The left high kick should be used regularly to raise Aldo's guard for body kicks and to deter him from slipping the left straight. Aldo's gas tank has never been the best and he's never faced opponents who are willing to lay in the body blows. It is vital that McGregor check the low kicks or not be there for them. If Aldo begins to move laterally the left high kick will stop him in one direction and allow a follow up left straight, and the left back kick and wheel kick should be used to punish him for circling the other way. The jumping back kick can also be a fantastic stopper if he finds himself giving ground and struggling to kick.

For Aldo it is unlikely that we will see him come out with a polished right straight—his right hand has often been unnecessarily loopy and it is unlikely to beat McGregor's left straight through the shared line of attack. In an ideal world, he wants to be walking McGregor down and denying him the option of kicking effectively, but getting onto the front foot may well be a struggle. If he finds himself on the back foot it would be best to see him circling out constantly to avoid those winding front kicks and right straights, and then using the high kick or wheel kick that follows to step in, smother McGregor and take him down, or at least threaten it and hit him in the scramble.

Alternatively, Aldo has shown himself proficient in the use of the pivot in mulitple matches both against wrestling and boxing offence. Pivoting off in time with the opponent's power hand is a tremendous way to break the line and prevent follow up—something Miguel Cotto was demonstrating nicely against significantly bigger men a few months ago.

McGregor's way of back-skipping and giving ground when his opponent comes back at him is very similar to that we see from Luke Rockhold and discussed in Monday's article about Rockhold vs Weidman. While he is a forward moving fighter, he is not opposed to back skipping and looking to counter—though for McGregor it is the left straight and not the right hook. Aldo might well use this to get McGregor retreating and hammer his trailing leg with right low kicks or the nearer, more difficult to check lead leg to the hamstring. Against a fighter who retreats and works on a hair trigger as much as McGregor, feints are a tremendously valuable weapon.

The aforementioned strategy of catch and pitch—while opening up Aldo to some significant punishment—might work out well for him too. Aldo's best punches and low kicks often come on the counter and at the end of a counter-combination, something which we discussed in the episode of Ringcraft called Three Initiatives:

Finally, a more reliable method to see McGregor backing up is to have any sort of success with takedowns from the clinch and following them with good top control. Aldo has shown himself willing to take his opponent down and chill for a round on top of them, doing it to McGregor early, and not exhausting himself as Mendes did, would put some urgency into McGregor. Early takedowns set a ticking clock on a bout, that's one round lost, two rounds lost, and suddenly the striking is clumsier, telegraphed, desperate. The threat of Fedor's clinch kept Cro Cop backing up, the threat of Aldo's should be backing up McGregor. If he doesn't show McGregor its there, or McGregor easily shucks him off when it is, Aldo might be in for a long night between the fence and McGregor's left foot as Mendes and others were.

Afterthoughts

The context of this fight has done a good job making it for many fans. McGregor crafting himself as most divisive heel in the sport, Aldo being out for almost a year, the very different relationships they have with the UFC. It's a fight which has forced everyone to pick a side and I am sure that there are readers from both thinking "Damn, Jack sure loves the other guy". The truth is that not only do I have no idea how the fight will play out, I don't even know who I would want to win. Aldo is the only champion speaking out about fighter pay, the Reebok deal and a ton of other stuff that the fighters actually need someone in a position of leverage to talk about, but will often fall back on the old "I was translated wrong" when asked about it later and he can't shift pay-per-view buys at all. Meanwhile the pro wrestling antics and scripted wit might get stale quickly, but McGregor has been a miracle for his divisions. He has an entire country talking about what was considered a hipster weight class in a niche sport. He has attracted thousands of fans from all across the world even if they want to see him lose, and he consistently puts on great fights. If he wins the belt we in the MMA media will all benefit from the wave of publicity he receives as 'the next Ronda'.

I would ask, however, that you remember how we got here. Aldo is the most accomplished featherweight of all time—beating him doesn't immediately make McGregor the best who ever lived, he'll have some work to do to match Aldo's accomplishments, but losing to him is no shame either. Equally, Aldo losing doesn't mean he's done or that he was never that good.

You might want to steer clear of the MMA sphere for a couple of days after the fight, it's going to be insufferable, but check back Monday for our breakdown of whatever happens in what is easily the busiest fight weekend of the year.

Pick up Jack's new kindle book, Finding the Art, or find him at his blog, Fights Gone By.

See more of the Gian Galang's amazing art on his website.