Hawai’i Is Sinking 40 Times Faster Than Experts Predicted—Now What?

New research found that Hawai’i is sinking 40 times faster than originally thought. 

The study, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment and led by researchers at the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, revealed that parts of the island Oahu are sinking at an alarming rate. The most vulnerable portions of the island are low-lying urban regions that are more susceptible to flooding.

Hawai’i Is Sinking 40 Times Faster Than Experts Previously Predicted: ‘We Must Prepare for Flooding’

“In Hawai’i, impacts of sea level rise (SLR) are already widely observed, and include beach loss, coastal erosion, and flooding in the form of direct marine inundation, storm-drain back-flow, as well as groundwater inundation,” the researchers explained in the study.

“In rapidly subsiding areas, sea level rise impacts will be felt much sooner than previously estimated, which means that we must prepare for flooding on a shorter timeline,” said Kyle Murray, the lead author of the study.

As a result, “Hawai’i tourism, coastal development, and ecosystems will face major disruptions,” the researchers stated. “It is projected that over $12.9 billion in infrastructure is at risk from flooding and related damages on O’ahu alone.”

Popular locations like Honolulu, Waikiki, and Pearl Harbor are at risk of becoming completely submerged in the span of just decades. In fact, parts of Oahu might experience a flood exposure increase of “over 50 percent by 2050, while compressing flood preparedness timelines by up to 50 years,” said Phil Thompson, study co-author and director of the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center in Honolulu.

“Our research provides critical data that can inform state and county decision-making, helping to improve flood exposure assessments, infrastructure resilience, and long-term urban planning,” said Chip Fletcher, co-author and director of the Climate Resilience Collaborative at the University of Manoa.

“This work directly serves the people of Hawaiʻi by ensuring that local adaptation strategies are based on the best available science, ultimately helping to protect homes, businesses, and cultural areas.”