Maths Predicts Global Mass Extinction Event in 2100

Over the past 540 million years or so, there have been five mass extinctions on our planet. The largest one, 250 million years ago, saw 95 percent of all species wiped out. Understanding these mass die-offs gives scientists insight into what’s going on today: Animals are disappearing at an alarming rate, largely driven by human-caused changes to the environment. Many scientists believe a sixth mass extinction is now underway.

Every ancient extinction happened at a time when Earth was also seeing disruption in the carbon cycle—the natural process that links cellular respiration (which releases carbon dioxide, or CO2) and photosynthesis (plants take up that CO2 to grow). Of course, humans are now pumping CO2 into the environment at astounding rates.

A new paper in Science Advances finds that a mass extinction period mirroring ones from our planet’s ancient past could be triggered when humanity adds a certain amount of carbon to the oceans, which are home to the majority of all plants and animals on our planet. The paper pegs that amount at 310 gigatons. According to lead author Daniel Rothman of MIT, based on projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we’re on course to hit that number by 2100. After that, we enter “unknown territory.”

Read the rest on Motherboard.