Lauri Markkanen Will Stretch NBA Floors, But Can He Stretch His Game?
Sweet-shooting Arizona seven-footer Lauri Markkanen is a prototypical stretch big man, and a likely NBA draft lottery pick. Can he become a well-rounded player?
As NBA teams have used statistical analysis to better understand what, exactly, constitutes an efficient shot, what they want from frontcourt prospects has changed. Once upon a time, the league prized back-to-the-basket, post-up threats who could protect the rim; today, seven-footers who can shoot three-pointers and move their feet quickly enough to stay with guards on the perimeter are among the most valuable commodities in the sport.
Advertisement
This new breed of big man—the stretch four and, increasingly, five— not only can score efficiently for himself but also can space the floor for his teammates, pulling defenders away from the paint and providing more lanes for guards and wings to attack.Of course, that's the ideal; in practice, it often takes time to translate NBA draft night promise into consistent jump-shooting. For example, Myles Turner shot 40 percent from the midrange during his rookie season. Kristaps Porzingis hit 33 percent of his three-pointers last year. Halfway through his second season, Frank Kaminsky is still hitting only 32 percent of his triples.Then there's Arizona's Lauri Markkanen, a likely high-lottery pick who may not face the same shooting performance curve.
Markkanen arguably is the most polished seven-foot shooting prospect in NBA draft history, and he's currently enjoying the best three-point-shooting season of any NCAA big man ever. Before Markkanen, no college seven-footer had made at least 55 triples while shooting 45 percent from behind the arc; currently, the Finnish import has made 59 threes, and is shooting 46 percent.Take a look at Markkanen's highlights, and it's easy to see where his numbers come from:
Markkanen hits three-pointers when spotting up. He hits them in pick-and-pop situations, or in slide/slip screen actions. He hits them as a transition trailer. He'll knock them down coming off of a down screen. He can hit them off of a two-dribble step-back, or winding around a screen as a ball-handler. Basically, there's no situation where Markkanen isn't comfortable gunning from deep, and a lot of that has to do with his picture-perfect mechanics.
Advertisement
Markkanen has a lightning-quick release with a very simple and compact shooting motion that allows him to rise up from a variety of spots. His balance is impeccable for a player his size, and he never changes his motion, whether he's shooting from 18 feet or 25 feet away. His height and high release point make his jumper essentially impossible to block.More than that, Markkanen has ways to counter closeouts and switches: he has a strong game of the bounce when defenders run him off the three-point line, and can very capably post up smaller defenders. In fact, his physical strength means that he can't be credibly guarded by small forwards; Markkanen has the sort of NBA-ready frame you don't typically see with 19-year-old seven-footers, especially ones with shooting skill."He looks like an Abercrombie model out there," a league scout told VICE Sports. "That dude is muscular and isn't going to be pushed around."
When you won't be pushed around. Photo by Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
As a scorer, Markkanen is the epitome of a matchup nightmare. And that's important for both his draft stock and his long-term professional potential. While the native of Jyvaskyla, in the central part of Finland, very likely will become his country's second-ever NBA player, the rest of his game appears to be a bit lacking, at least from what scouts have been able to see thus far.Arizona hasn't asked Markkanen to pass all that often—he's a scorer, after all—but his 6.3 percent assist rate is quite low for any player with his level of perimeter usage. Defensively, he moves his feet well for a seven-footer, and is mobile enough to utilize a couple slides to cut off dribble penetration, but he may have trouble dealing with more explosive NBA guards who can quickly turn the corner, especially as he has to defend farther away from the basket.
Advertisement
Rebounding-wise, Markkanen is good at recognizing when he has an advantage on the offensive glass—but on the defensive end, he's not as good. He also isn't close to being a defensive playmaker, posting an exceedingly low 1.5 percent block rate, which would be the lowest draft-year mark of any first-round pick since 2009. Markkanen's 0.8 steal rate is also low, though not historically poor.Taken by themselves, these numbers aren't killers. Arizona plays a conservative defensive scheme, and the Wildcats' early-season depth issues forced Markkanen to take fewer chances. They do, however, speak to his relative lack of length for his height, which could worry some NBA teams about his long-term defensive potential.Who does Markkanen remind scouts of? Many told VICE Sports he was a "more athletic Ryan Anderson," referring to the Houston power forward whose elite shooting and floor-spacing ability have helped the Rockets surge. For now, Markkanen is a fairly one-dimensional prospect: he'll give your team offense via elite shooting and an already-differentiated game that features mature countermoves.That's good, but is also means that Markkanen projects to be a specialist, the type of player who will have to be "built around" instead of "built with." Every NBA team wants well-rounded players, because they make it easier to construct rosters and create coherent lineups. When a player can't shoot, floor spacing has to come from the players around him; when a player can't defend, the guy next to him better be pretty capable.
Advertisement
Lauri Markkanen's jump shot is all but unblockable. Photo by Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
In Markkanen's case, his NBA team will need to put an athletic rim protector next to him in the frontcourt, or else watch their defense struggle. And that can make a general manager's job harder: needing to find specific skills limits your pool of potential players, and can put your franchise into a box. On the other hand, Markkanen's scoring talent appears to be fairly unique, and worth building around—and besides, he's only 19, which means there's still time to improve on his weaknesses and round out his overall game."It's hard to find shot-blockers and rebounders, but it's harder to find shooters like Lauri at that size," an NBA executive told VICE Sports. "He can just really score. He's a high-level shooter for his position. He might be the best shooter at his position in the NBA at some point, and there aren't many players who enter the draft that you can say that about."Thanks to Markkanen's size and historic shooting numbers, as well as the league's need for floor-spacing big men, he's deservedly in the conversation to be a top-six draft pick. His ultimate potential, however, will be determined by the complementary players placed around him, and by how well he can supplement his scoring with ancillary skills.Want to read more stories like this from VICE Sports?Subscribe to our daily newsletter.
ORIGINAL REPORTING ON EVERYTHING THAT MATTERS IN YOUR INBOX.
By signing up, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy & to receive electronic communications from Vice Media Group, which may include marketing promotions, advertisements and sponsored content.