An Innings Limit Might Be the Only Thing That Can Slow down Aaron Sanchez

Aaron Sanchez launched his mission in the offseason. It is ongoing. The goals: add muscle to become stronger and more resilient, follow a meticulous training program to stay that way, and remain in the Blue Jays' starting rotation as long as they'll let him.

His new program is working, he says. Compared to last year, when he also opened the season as a starter, he says: "I feel a whole 180—stronger, durable, everything that you can think of."

Soon, Blue Jays fans will start thinking of the club's spring declaration that Sanchez, at some point this season, will become a relief pitcher for the third time in three years. If he continues to pitch as he has over his first 13 starts (6-1 record, 3.38 ERA) and shows no signs of fading, that could trigger a vigorous debate—especially if the Jays are contending for a playoff spot.

The club is not about to announce an innings limit for Sanchez. He himself will not take the bait when asked whether he thinks he can stay in the rotation until the Jays have played their final game of 2016.

"Who knows? I don't know what their plans are. We'll see," he says.

"I think that's just one of those things we'll talk about when the time comes. I'll just try to get as many starts as I can under my belt before that even comes up. I don't know. We're treading in uncharted waters when you see what's going on with (Matt) Harvey and guys like that."

There may be a question about when, but not if, according to manager John Gibbons. "Oh yeah, we're going to do it," Gibbons said before the Jays' game in Philadelphia on Wednesday.

Matt Harvey and guys like Stephen Strasburg are not exact parallels to Sanchez, because they underwent Tommy John surgery, then faced controversial innings limits upon their return in order to protect their arms. Neither of them did the bullpen-rotation shuffle as Sanchez has.

Of course, the Jays want to ensure that Sanchez isn't forced to follow the Harvey-Strasburg path through TJ surgery. That's why they announced, vaguely, at the end of spring training that Sanchez's days as a starer are numbered, at least for 2016.

Sanchez has never pitched more than 133.1 innings in a season (2014, minors and majors combined). His current total is 85.1, which means that he will likely venture into those uncharted waters about a month after his 24th birthday on July 1.

At his current pace, he would hit the 200-inning mark shortly before the end of the regular season.

In a Sportsnet interview on May 21, general manager Ross Atkins was asked whether it's possible Sanchez could be in the rotation at the end of the season.

"I think there's a chance of that," he said, without specifying whether there's also a chance that Sanchez's rotation run could be interrupted along the way. It is likely the Jays will find ways to give Sanchez extra rest, possibly by summoning Drew Hutchison from Buffalo for the occasional spot start and definitely by taking advantage of scheduled days off.

In the early stages of a pitcher's development, some clubs apply innings limits based on guesswork that says a pitcher should not increase his innings by more than 20 percent from one year to the next. Atkins acknowledged there is no evidence to support that theory, nor any other.

With Sanchez, the Jays will look at what their eyes, ears and scientific data are telling them, Atkins said in that interview.

"We'll rely on how he's feeling and what the objective and subjective things are telling us," Atkins said. "Ultimately, whether it's treatment, release point, effectiveness, stuff, spin rates, any views that we can get, but the most important piece of the equation will be Aaron. We're not at the point where we have to start thinking about that."

But Gibbons said management is currently debating "an actual number" for Sanchez's innings limit. When Sanchez moves to the bullpen, the Jays plan to promote Hutchison from Buffalo to take over the rotation spot.

Of course they're thinking about that, if not obsessively, at least judiciously. They are watching Sanchez carefully, as they should.

And if they're asking him now, he will tell them he feels better than ever. Pete Walker, his pitching coach, will say that in every phase of his development, Sanchez also looks better than ever.

Clearly, he did not look that way on Sunday, when he gave up six runs in five innings to Baltimore, but still earned a win in the Jays' 10-9 victory. Even in that start, he did not pitch as poorly as his stat line indicated, although he was clearly not at his best.

He gave up four homers to the team that leads the majors in hitting them. Two came on down-and-away pitches that Chris Davis and Matt Wieters, both left-handed batters, reached with just enough bat head to clear the left-field fence on a windy day. A couple of cheap hits extended innings and helped to push Sanchez over the 100-pitch mark early, in dramatic contrast to his previous start.

That one, in Detroit, saw him take a one-hit shutout into the ninth inning. After giving up a single and double to open the ninth, he was done, having struck out 12, walking one and throwing 98 pitches.

I talked to Walker about Sanchez between his starts against Detroit and Baltimore, both good-hitting teams.

"He's getting better and better," Walker said. "I think there's a confidence factor as well. He feels better and better in this role. In the (Detroit) game, you saw a dominant Aaron Sanchez, really the first time that it was so evident. He was better than Detroit on that night, from start to finish. I could see it on the mound. I could sense it talking to him between innings.

"He's getting to the point where he's extremely confident in his ability to throw his curveball at any time, in the action on his sinker, in repeating his delivery. He's got a tremendous routine that he's sticking to."

On that night in Detroit, Sanchez had the best curveball of his big-league career—a 78 mph, 12-to-6 marvel that was almost unhittable. But he also had excellent sink on his fastball (average velocity 95.5), which he lacked against Baltimore.

"I'm a groundball pitcher," he told reporters after the Baltimore game. "I need to keep the ball on the ground. That's what it comes down to."

Sanchez entered Sunday's game with a 2.91 ERA and left it at 3.38. Among his 13 starts, he has had three duds—each time allowing six earned runs. In the other 10 starts, he has not allowed more than three.

He credits his success to the offseason conditioning regimen he undertook at Duke University with his close friend and fellow starter, Marcus Stroman. That routine, which helped him gain 20 pounds of muscle, has been refined and adapted to bolster his chances of success during the long season.

Last year, Sanchez was just hitting his stride after 11 starts when he suffered a strain in his back muscle, in a spot just behind and below his pitching shoulder. When he returned, he was sent back to the bullpen, where he excelled as he had the previous year. But the injury convinced him that he needed to strengthen his body so he could endure the rigours of starting over the long haul.

"Last year," he says, "there were some things that weren't right, both mechanically and physically. It's two different times now. I'll continue to make the work I put in this year a testament to myself. The stuff I did in the offseason put me in a great position to succeed this year."

Walker agrees that Sanchez's training regimen is a big factor. He also says that Sanchez, who reached the majors with extraordinary talent, is benefiting from the wisdom of experience. And much of that wisdom focuses on preparation for game day.

"He knows exactly what he needs to do now," Walker says. "I think the routine itself is really concrete now, where I don't think it was last year as a starter. I think he was still kind of searching for that routine, whether it was the number of pitches in the bullpen or what he does on the day before his next start.

"He has a real, strong, consistent routine right now. He's maturing into it. I think it goes back to the muscle, the added strength, the repeating of the delivery, the feel for his pitches, the confidence level which goes along with that as you gain some success. He's finding a way to get to that next level."

Oh yes, and let's not forget that curveball that so bedazzled the Tigers.

"Now that he's throwing it for strikes," Walker says, "he's forcing those guys to swing, so he can take it out of the zone for a swing-and-miss. Earlier in his career, even in the minor leagues at times and last year at times, they would simply see spin and take, because they knew for the most part it wasn't going to be a strike. Now they have to honour that pitch, so it makes all the difference in the world."

So the tall right-hander who left spring training as the so-called fifth starter has at least become the Jays' No. 2 and perhaps 1a alongside Marco Estrada. The question now is how long management will let him continue.

Clearly, it is vital to protect his health for the long term. But if he keeps this up, and the Jays are in a pennant race, Atkins and his lieutenants in the scouting, analytics and high-performance departments face some long and challenging conversations.

They will not be dealing with exact science.

Said Atkins in that Sportsnet interview: "There's not a lot of evidence there that suggests you should stop at a certain threshold."

And at the moment, Aaron Sanchez is not interested in stopping at all.