Dim Outlook for Pass Rushers in the 2016 NFL Draft

The question of what you want from an NFL edge rusher is simple on paper. Complex hand play and countermoves are the talk of nuanced line coaches, but the necessary traits are speed, burst, athleticism, and size.

There are two main analytics instruments I think are worth pointing out in advance of the NFL Draft. One has been around for a few years and was recently polished up; the other has burst on the scene recently. Both of them rely heavily on combine data.

The first, Football Outsiders' SackSEER, measures athleticism in an odd way: passes defensed. The thinking goes that if a player can jump up and knock a ball down—or at least if he is trusted to play in the passing lanes—he has what it takes to play in the NFL.

The other system, Justis Mosqueda's Force Players, also focuses on combine or Pro Day skills (Mosqueda doesn't make his formula public). The three-cone drill factors in heavily to both systems, as well as the jumps and the burst from the 40-yard dash.

What's interesting about this year's crop of pass rushers is that there are a lot of holes to poke, and a lot of disagreement between the two systems about which players are the takers.

Clemson's Shaq Lawson is the one guy that Force Players actually believes in. He fits all the physical dimensions of a star pass rusher according to Mosqueda's system. Meanwhile, SackSEER looks at Lawson's actual college production and throws up a red flag. Lawson is a "one-year wonder"—he had just 7.5 sacks in his first two seasons, and just one pass defended.

It's worth noting here that SackSEER's most famous miss is Jason Pierre-Paul, and that the recent revamping of the system was to address low statistical output by players in similar situations. Even still, there are plenty of edge rushers with Lawson's statistical profile that bombed in the NFL. How much meaning does that have for Lawson? My guess is it depends more on which coaching staff molds him than anything else.

The guy who is actually likely to go first among all edge rushers, Ohio State's Joey Bosa, is slagged in both systems. Bosa meets most of SackSEER's requirements, but his jumps and 40-yard-dash keep him from being a Force Player. SackSEER sees a player who might not have top-5-caliber physicality because of the poor burst and, in particular, his 4.86 40-yard dash time. SackSEER noted that Chris Long was the slowest end to go top 5, and his 40-yard dash was an entire tenth of a second faster than Bosa's.

Add it up and Bosa's stock has gone down a peg since the end of the college season. He's statistically a great college rusher, but length and strength don't necessarily project him to be a star edge player in the NFL.

The other edge rushers that seem to get linked to the first round are Georgia's Leonard Floyd and Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah. Ogbah has the highest rating of any prospect in this draft by SackSEER, despite a mediocre three-cone drill; his projected draft position, according to NFL Draft Scout is between the first two rounds. Mosqueda, however, argues that Ogbah's 40-yard dash is overrated as compared to the 10-yard split, and that the three-cone drill time looks even worse next to famous busts of the past 15 years.

Finally, there's Floyd, whom SackSEER sees as a workout warrior with no history of performance. Mosqueda calls him "the next Dion Jordan," which isn't a label that inspires confidence.

The only other player to appear in the first-round conversation is Noah Spence, but he is being flagged by off-field issues and may be off a few boards entirely. This is it. This is your edge rusher class by the numbers.

The past few years have given us Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn, Ezekiel Ansah, Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, Preston Smith, and Chandler Jones. This may be the weakest class of edge rushers by the numbers since 2012, when Jones wound up being the star of a group that didn't have a single selection before the 15th overall pick. The other guys in that edge rush crop? Bruce Irvin, Quinton Coples, Whitney Mercilus, and Shea McClellin. Not exactly guys you break the bank for.

My impression coming out of the college season was that Bosa was a potential star, but looking at the numbers in front of us, I don't know if anyone qualifies as one at this position this year.