There were 108,000 drug overdose deaths in the United States in 2022. That was twice the number of drug overdose deaths compared to the year before. Since then, something has changed: overdose deaths are dropping rapidly – and, according to an analysis by Vox, no one is quite sure why. But the experts have their theories.
For the 12 months ending in June of 2024, the number of drug overdose deaths dropped by around 15 percent – though the total number was still high, at 94,000. So we’re clearly not out of the woods yet, but we are heading in the right direction for the first time in a long time.
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One theory is that the drug supply itself could be less potent than it used to be.
DEA administrator Anne Milgram suggests that the agency’s crackdown on cartels importing illicit drugs has led to a decrease in the amount of fentanyl making it into the US. Which sounds all well and good, until you consider that data on the potency of illicit drugs is inconsistent at best – same goes for the rate of fentanyl confiscation at the border. So this theory may have some holes in it.
Another theory – one with a little bit more weight – is that plenty of people are still using drugs, only they now have better harm reduction resources. For example, naloxone, a drug that effectively reverses an overdose. Access to naloxone has spread across major cities in the past four years, and it’s now pretty readily available as an emergency option for anyone who should need it. Los Angeles County, for instance, made naloxone available in communal gathering points like schools, churches, and libraries.
Another theory posited by some epidemiologists – perhaps the most grim of them all, and certainly the most controversial – is that the epidemic has already claimed the lives of those most susceptible to overdoses. It’s best summed up in a type of selection bias known as the “depletion of susceptibles.” In the simplest and darkest terms, it means that there just aren’t as many drug users left to die, because all the ones most susceptible to OD’ing have already gone.
Whatever the reason for the decline, let’s hope it keeps up.
