The 20 Countries Best Equipped to Navigate the Future, According to Investors

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It’s a good hypothetical question: If you were going to invest the bulk of your savings in a single country, and you could only divest in 20 twenty years, which would you pick? Which country is currently slated to navigate the future in such a way that it will not only survive the political and environmental turmoil of coming years, but thrive?

Would you place your wager on an economically roaring but politically unstable giant like China? Would you go for the longtime wealthy frontrunner, the solid-but-perhaps-waning US? Or maybe a small, egalitarian and environmentally-friendly European state would be the best bet?

Since investors are constantly trying to answer such questions, we actually have some data that might help guide your choice. The sustainable investment firm Robeco has essentially analyzed the question posed above. In a new report, it examines 59 countries on the strength of their long-term viability, as opposed to gauging which nation might offer the quickest returns. 

As a result, it took into consideration sustainable environmental policies—countries that recklessly burn through all of their resources won’t look so hot in, say a decade or two—social welfare—equality, worker treatment and education factor here—and governance—human rights, stability, and democracy are a must if a nation is going to navigate an uncertain future, after all.

Taking all of those factors into account, Robesco worked to “develop a comprehensive and systematic framework for determining country sustainability rankings.” These country sustainability ratings are meant to guide future investment, but they’re also useful indicators of how well-positioned a given nation is to endure a socially tumultuous, climatically changed and politically volatile future.  

Robesco’s newly released report ranks 59 nations according to said framework, which “is designed to complement traditional rating agencies and traditional financial analysis of a country.”

The top twenty of those nations are as follows:

You’ll notice that Northern European states like Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway clean up here; they often do on lists like this. And for a reason. These stable social democracies keep income levels equal, the public engaged in environmental sustainability, robust social programs humming, and the quality of life high for all citizens. They’re increasingly reliant on clean, renewable energy, and unrest is extremely unlikely. In other words, it’s a good bet they’ll be resilient even as the world changes around them. 

Canada, the US, and Australia are each large, resource-rich democracies that will likely continue to do well in spite of a rise of social and environmental problems. European nations like Switzerland, the UK, Germany, France, and Belgium have high-functioning democracies, decent environmental platforms, and good social programs, universal health care chief among them.

More surprising is the inclusion of Singapore and Hong Kong: small, wealthy city-state commerce hubs that aren’t particularly socially progressive. Low crime, high investment, and a comparatively small environmental footprints probably won them a slot on the list. Ireland might be the most surprising entry—its economic troubles and ongoing political tensions with UK make it an unlikely pick, though its rapid, pre-collapse growth certainly impressed investors once, and can again.

The bottom of the list, meanwhile is lined with democratic nations that unsustainably raze their resources and are seen (at least by the West) as carrying on undemocratic governments and institutions. China and India fair poorly, in the face of weak political institutions, corruption, and human rights abuses.

The oil plutocracy of Nigeria is dead last, and the free press-less Russia and imploding Egypt are close behind. The inclusion of Venezuela at second last, however, produces a caveat—its aggressive anti-capitalist rhetoric likely scares investors more than a deficit in any of the metrics above, considering it is a functioning democracy with decent, if undeveloped social institutions. 

The lessons, regardless, are clear—strong democracies, sustainable environmental policies, income redistribution, and generous social programs make a country more resilient in the long run. As the report notes, “When countries fail to proactively address their long term challenges, such challenges eventually catch up with them, becoming short-term problems that require immediate attention,” it says. 

“Recent events—from the Euro crisis to the unrest in Egypt—illustrate the relevance of this information for investors. Being aware of countries’ structural flaws or strengths can help investors make better-informed investment decisions.” 

In other words, bet on democracy, sustainability, income equality, and universal education and healthcare. Bet on Sweden-ness.