The Odds of That ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid Hitting Earth Keep Getting Worse

I’m going to start this off by saying that the chances of the asteroid hitting the Earth in 2032 are still quite small. But still, according to new calculations, the chances of hitting the earth are getting bigger are getting worse. For us. I’m sure the asteroid doesn’t give a shit.

The asteroid in question, named 2024 YR4, is roughly the size of a soccer field. If it were to smash into the earth it would not cause an extinction-level event but it could devastate a major city.

Yes, there are ideas out there on how to change its trajectory should it fully lock in on Earth. We could slam a satellite into it as NASA once did with an asteroid just a few years ago. We could nuke the shit out of it like one astronomer suggested. So there are plans currently being discussed by space agencies all over the world.

The Odds Of That Asteroid Hitting Us Keep Getting Worse

What we’ll ultimately do depends on what the asteroid does. For now, though, doing nothing seems like the most likely possibility even though the asteroid now has a 3.1% chance of hitting the Earth, which is up from the previously reported 2.3% chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032.

The extremely powerful James Webb space telescope, which has been used to show us visions of deep space previously unimagined, is being used by the global astronomical community to keep a close eye on 2024 YR4’s movements.

2024 YR4 is categorized as a “city killer,” meaning it could cause significant destruction to its immediate surroundings. They would be especially dangerous thanks to its incredible speed, currently clocking in at around 40,000 mph. Should it impact the Earth’s surface, it would be as powerful as 8 megatons of TNT, which is 500 times more powerful than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.

It’s hard to predict with any degree of certainty where the asteroid could hit, but its current potential impact area includes the eastern Pacific, parts of South America, somewhere in the Atlantic, and parts of Africa and South Asia. So, we have no idea where this thing will go specifically. We just know that at this moment there is a 3.1% chance that it hits the earth somewhere.

Now, if you live in that court door, which is admittedly rather huge at the moment, there is no need to start making relocation plans. There’s still plenty of time for the asteroid to change direction. And if it doesn’t, well NASA’s aforementioned 2022 DART mission, where NASA’s best and brightest slapped the fuck out of an asteroid with a satellite.

They knocked that silly space rock off course just to prove that we could. And that is an option on the table that might actually save lives. We’re not in crisis mode yet, and likely won’t be for a while, if ever.

But if we ever do enter crisis mode, just know there are proven tactics ready to be deployed in the form of cosmic flyswatters.