The NFL is often lauded as a game of parity. The salary cap forces great teams to make tough decisions about their talent. Turmoil is constant. Youth gets served, and the “next man up” mentality rewards depth.

Of course, this mindset ignores a few things. One is that missing the playoffs due to injury problems or a bad break doesn’t diminish what a team may have accomplished years prior. A team with a solid passing game is usually able to dust itself off and turn things around. The other is that, on a divisional level, there are tons of multi-year “dynasties.”

The Broncos have owned the AFC West since 2012. The Packers haven’t missed the playoffs since Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starter. The Colts, other than a brief interregnum in the Peyton Manning-Andrew Luck transition, have been the lords of the AFC South since 2002. The Patriots have dominated the AFC East for about 15 years. All these teams may have had a bad break or two over that period, but they never relinquished control.

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This year, the NFL has played pretty much to form. Seven of the eight teams with a two-game lead or more on a playoff spot made the playoffs in 2014. The lone interloper, Minnesota, hasn’t actually been empirically good. They had a below-average DVOA heading into Thursday night’s game against Arizona. Teddy Bridgewater has not taken the step forward to become a great quarterback that many expected. But the Falcons have lost six games in a row. The young Bucs are not ready yet. Nobody has been able to challenge the Vikings for the second NFC wild card spot. They’ve claimed it by default.

Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t not taken the expected leap forward. But the Vikings are still playoff contenders. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past few seasons, we’ve been able to find at least one surprise good team (I’ll define a good team as one with 10.0% or higher DVOA on the season). Last year, the Cowboys contended despite everyone believing they’d have the worst defense in the NFL. Baltimore, helped by Gary Kubiak’s work with Joe Flacco, also was a huge riser from preseason projections in 2014. Two years ago, Arizona and Kansas City, a pair of teams with terrific head coaches, put themselves on the map. Both teams had ugly preseason projections.

The opportunity was there for a team to take a huge step forward this season. The top-heavy NFL was begging for a new contender. Every single one of them fell flat on their face. The Rams are setting offensive football back 20 years. The Falcons, who looked like they would be a sleeper, have gone limp on offense. The Saints defense is in shambles. The Chargers have a franchise quarterback and have surrounded him with nothing of value.

And that’s not to say that there weren’t some big surprises along the way. Few people believed in Tyrod Taylor would be a worthwhile quarterback. (Especially me!) Derek Carr came in and showed he had more promise than expected. I’m not especially big on Blake Bortles going forward because he’s so turnover-prone. But Bortles has showed some variance in big plays that wasn’t there last season. Poor defenses have forced these quarterbacks to be great on a weekly basis. They weren’t up for it.

There are three races left in the 2015 season, and most of them are still races because of injuries or disappointing performances. Andrew Luck’s injury and poor play has put the Colts into a position where they give up 42-first-half points to the Jaguars. The AFC Wild Card race is a race because the Steelers can’t get healthy enough to put together their full first team offense, and the Chiefs and Jets have each had prolonged stretches of poor play. Tony Romo’s injuries and the regression of the Dallas run game has opened up the NFC East to any team that can string together a good month.

So yes, there will be teams that make the playoffs that you wouldn’t have expected to before the season. Football Outsiders projected Washington to finish with the worst DVOA in the NFL, and they’re in the driver’s seat for a division crown. The Jaguars and Texans still have a shot to get by the Colts.

But they won’t be making the playoffs because they took a huge step forward. There’s no team like that this season. Individual units have surprised us, and some players have taken a big leap forward. It just hasn’t all come together for one team like it has in recent seasons. The result is a settled playoff picture for the old guard, most of whom won’t even need to try in Week 16 or 17.

Some of these “sleeper” teams may make the playoffs. But make no mistake, they’ll be making the playoffs because the teams in front of them stumbled.