On the same day that we learn that 2012 saw the second-highest rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in half a century—bringing that crucial stat to just about 395 ppm, by the way—there's some pretty amazing research coming out of UCLA showing that by mid-century summer Arctic sea ice will be so thin that ice-breaking vessels would be able to blaze a shipping route directly over the North Pole, and that even ordinary ships will sometimes be able to operate unescorted along Arctic shipping routes.The route over the North Pole is 20% shorter than the Northern Sea Route (which hugs the coast of Russia and is the most-traveled Arctic sea route today), for a trip between the Netherlands and Japan. It's 40% shorter than going through the Suez canal.Right now the Northwest Passage (the companion route to the Northern Sea Route, going across the top of Canada) is open on average once in seven years — though it seems in the past five years at least it's been open in pretty much every one of them. If the scenarios examined in this study bear out, by mid-century it would be open on average every other year.That said, the research states that, in the studied time period (2040-2059), these routes would only be navigable through late summer. Under the climate scenarios they examined, the sea ice would be still too thick for passage during winter months.To determine the effect of climate change and melting Arctic sea ice on shipping, the researchers examined seven different models on the properties of sea ice, under two different emissions scenarios (one assuming a 25% increase in carbon emissions, the other a 35% increase), on the possibilities of both ordinary ships and ones moderately strenghtened against ice, during the peak shipping month of September, when sea ice generally reaches its lowest extent."No matter which carbon emissions scenario is considered, by mid-century we will have passed a crucial tipping point [of] sufficiently thin sea ice, enabling moderately capable icebreakers to go where they please," said Laurence Smith, the professor of geography who led the research.Smith also notes that this is "both exciting from an economic development point of view and worrisome in terms of safety, both for the Arctic environment and for the ships themselves."The part left out of that quote is how this will just exacerbate the slowly simmering tensions over territorial rights in an ice-free Arctic. National boundaries, while established under law, weren't of critical importance when the Arctic was mostly ice. But now they matter a great deal more. In part that's because of shipping, but even more so because of exploration rights for oil and natural gas that, in the some great planetary irony, are now far more accessible.For both shipping and resource exploration nations set rules for access and passage through their territorial waters. Currently, Russia commands fees for escorting vessels that want to make the journey through the Northern Sea Route. But if other routes routinely open up, nations will be able to bypass this route, potentially in favor of ones where such fees aren't charge. Assuming, of course, that Canada, the US, and the other nations with Arctic territorial claims don't just try to profit from the new shipping routes as well.Certainly all want to profit from the increase access to resources.The additional irony in shipping though an ice-free Arctic is that it would actual reduce fuel used in shipping — even if only for part of a year, a 20-40% decrease in distance between Europe and East Asia is a big deal in that regards.An unmitigated environmental disaster in the region (in human time frames at least), caused by an excess of fossil fuel burning, driven by an economic system predicated on never ending expansion, means both greater access to the thing that is behind the disaster, as well as a reduction in the need for fuel in one not-insignificant segment of fuel consumption.Environment aside, though I will be approaching the ranks of the elderly by the time it actually happens, I have to think that it would be amazing to be on the first ship that makes the journey directly over the North Pole. Just from an experiential standpoint, what more direct representation of the destruction that human civilization has wrought upon the ecosystems that we inhabit is there than sailing a ship through a region that, for all of recorded human history, and well into prehistory, was previously entirely covered in ice?I imagine that it'd be simultaneously sad and exhilarating.
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The Northwest Passage (left) and North Pole (center red line) shipping routes could regularly open up by mid-century, which would be much faster than ice-free routes. Image: PNAS
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