College football's regular season is now mostly over, with just a few games left to play next week. And that means it's time for the third VICE Sports College Football Bowl Predictions of 2015, our best educated guesses as to where schools will end up this postseason.
A few things to remember:● These projections are based on what we think will happen at the end of the year, not what would happen if the season ended today.
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● The Playoff committee selects the top four seeds and places the top seed in the semifinal game closest to their campus. This year, the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl host semifinals.● The committee also places teams in the Fiesta and Peach bowls. The Rose and Sugar bowls technically choose their own replacements this year, but they will rely heavily on the rankings.● Outside the New Year's Six, bowls sometimes have to pick schools based on conference standings, but largely are allowed to put together their favorite matchups so long as the participants fit within the event's tier. For instance, in the past, the Citrus Bowl got the second Big Ten pick and the Outback Bowl got the third. Now the Citrus, Outback, and Holiday are all equal in the Big Ten 2-4 tier.● If a bowl runs out of eligible teams for its conference tie-in, it can look elsewhere.● This might be the first year there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams (finishing with at least a 6-6 record) to fill out the total bowl lineup. If that happens, teams that finish 5-7 can be chosen.
TFW you're on the outside of the playoff, looking in. Photo by RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports
With that out of the way, our predictions:BowlDateMatchupTie-insNational ChampionshipJanuary 11No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 3 OklahomaPlayoffOrange (Playoff)December 31No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 OklahomaPlayoffCotton (Playoff)December 31No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 IowaPlayoffFiesta (New Year's Six)January 1Notre Dame vs. Ohio StateAt-large vs. At-largeRose (NY 6)
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January 1Michigan State vs. StanfordBig Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1Sugar (NY 6)January 1TCU vs. Ole MissBig 12 1 vs. SEC 1Peach (NY 6)December 31Houston vs. Florida StateAt-large vs. At-largeAlamoJanuary 2Baylor vs. USCBig 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2CactusJanuary 2Kansas State vs. WashingtonBig 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7LibertyJanuary 2Texas Tech vs. Texas A&MBig 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8TaxSlayerJanuary 2Miami vs. GeorgiaACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8CitrusJanuary 1Michigan vs. FloridaBig Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2OutbackJanuary 1Northwestern vs. TennesseeBig Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8BelkDecember 30Pitt vs. ArkansasACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8BirminghamDecember 30Memphis vs. Mississippi StateAAC vs. SEC 9HolidayDecember 30Wisconsin vs. OregonBig Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3Music CityDecember 30Penn State vs. Mississippi StateACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8ArizonaDecember 29Marshall vs. Utah StateC-USA vs. MWCArmed ForcesDecember 29Nebraska vs. Boise StateBig Ten vs. MWCRussell AthleticDecember 29North Carolina vs. Oklahoma StateACC 2 vs. Big 12 3TexasDecember 29West Virginia vs. LSUBig 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8MilitaryDecember 28NC State vs. NavyACC vs. AACQuick LaneDecember 28Arizona State vs. San Jose StateACC vs. Big TenFoster FarmsDecember 26Indiana vs. UtahBig Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4Heart of DallasDecember 26Cal vs. Western KentuckyBig 12 7 vs. C-USAIndependenceDecember 26Duke vs. AuburnACC vs. SECPinstripeDecember 26Virginia Tech vs. ArizonaACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
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St. PetersburgDecember 26South Florida vs. AkronAAC vs. C-USASunDecember 26Louisville vs. UCLAACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5BahamasDecember 24Middle Tennessee vs. OhioC-USA vs. MAC 4/5HawaiiDecember 24Tulsa vs. BYUAAC vs. MWC/BYUGoDaddyDecember 23Bowling Green vs. Appalachian StateMAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2PoinsettiaDecember 23San Diego State vs. NevadaMWC vs. ArmyBoca RatonDecember 22Temple vs. Western MichiganAAC vs. MACPotatoDecember 22Northern Illinois vs. Colorado StateMAC 2 vs. MWCMiami BeachDecember 21UConn vs. Louisiana TechAAC vs. C-USACameliaDecember 19Toledo vs. Georgia SouthernMAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3CureDecember 19Cincinnati vs. MissouriAAC vs. Sun BeltLas VegasDecember 19Air Force vs. Washington StateMWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6New MexicoDecember 19Central Michigan vs. New MexicoC-USA vs. MWCNew OrleansDecember 19Arkansas State vs. Southern MissSun Belt 1 vs. C-USA
Playoffs? Playoffs. Photo by Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
And now, our reasoning:● We have Iowa in the Playoff! That said, we really have no idea who is going to win the Big Ten Championship Game between Iowa and Michigan State. These teams are built similarly, and they each have weaknesses. Expect quarterbacks for both schools to have big days against inconsistent opposing secondaries. The winner of the game will go to the College Football Playoff, and the loser probably will go to the Rose Bowl. We chose Iowa because that sounds hilarious and fun, and for a lot of fans, a national semifinal game against Clemson would be the first time they've seen the Hawkeyes play.● There will be at least two 5-7 teams in bowls this year. We still don't know exactly how they'll be assigned to games, but the general consensus is that the 5-7 teams with the best Academic Progress Rates will get in. (Major college football is all about education, which is why crummy teams will miss valuable potential study and vacation time practicing for crummy made-for-TV bowl games). Nebraska and Missouri are probably in. We have Kansas State winning next week, but even if they don't, the Wildcats are in good shape. San Jose State should sneak in as well. What a time to be alive!● The battle for the last few New Year's Six spots will be close. Right now, we have them going to TCU and Ole Miss. Northwestern, Oklahoma State and North Carolina are also contenders. The rest of the possible New Year's Six matchups—Michigan State-Stanford, then mix-and-match Ohio State, Notre Dame, Florida State and upstart Houston—look very good.●The Playoff field of Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and the Big Ten winner looks pretty set in stone. Oklahoma already has essentially clinched a spot—just as VICE Sports previously predicted,ahem—as has the Big Ten. If Clemson or Alabama lose, that opens up an opportunity for Ohio State and/or Stanford.
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