A Litmus Test for Alex Smith in Kansas City

In 2013, the San Francisco 49ers traded Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs for a pair of second-round picks. From such an innocuous deal—the 49ers dealing from a position of perceived strength, the Chiefs not getting a true franchise quarterback—spawned many takes. The debate over Colin Kaepernick versus Smith sometimes devolved into caricature—"the mobile athletic quarterback" versus "the pocket passer" (Smith is a fantastic running quarterback, by the way)—but Smith had won his share of supporters, mostly as a result of knocking off the surging New Orleans Saints in a wildly uncharacteristic NFC divisional game.

At the time, I was vehemently down on the move for Kansas City. Two second-round picks is not an insignificant amount of draft capital; in trading that for Smith, the Chiefs really gave up any hope of drafting and developing a quarterback in a year where there was no obvious first-round quarterbacks to start a rebuild. While Smith represented an improvement at the position, to me he was still a middling quarterback in a league where it takes a true star under center to win.

Three years later, my stance has softened on the middle-class quarterback, not just for Smith but also for Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco. In a NFL where last year's Peyton Manning can win a Super Bowl, perhaps all that matters is making the playoffs in the first place. Given the swings of a football season—the bursts of dominant play, the injuries that force different strategies, a matchup you might be able to exploit—if you're in the dance, you've still got a chance.

If you haven't watched a Smith start in a while, not much has changed. He runs well enough to sell a good play-action fake, and even well enough for read-options to be on the table. He doesn't put the ball at risk, and throws very few interceptable passes. He's an absolute liability under pocket pressure: his DVOA dropped nearly 150 percent when pressured last year, fourth worst in the NFL. He's not great at anticipating throws, nor is his arm big enough to throw receivers open. He's a flawed but ultimately decent enough quarterback.

By trading for Smith, the Chiefs were able to give their fans competitive football while they built the perfect box around him. This is the end result. Outside of the quarterback, the Chiefs enter the 2016 season as arguably the deepest, most talented team in the NFL. What Smith is able to accomplish with it will be a litmus test for his career.

The Chiefs certainly look to have the best team in the AFC West on paper. The Denver Broncos are in such dire circumstances at quarterback that the Buttfumble Prodigy is getting a real shot. The Oakland Raiders, as I discussed recently, are fighting against regression to the mean on their quest to be competitors.

The Chiefs are dealing with some significant injuries entering training camp. Star edge rusher Justin Houston is still rehabbing from ACL and LCL surgery, with an uncertain timetable to return. Running back Jamaal Charles is also still recovering from ACL surgery, and the team placed him on the PUP list this week. Nevertheless, Kansas City's roster looks pretty stacked right now. Remember, this team won 11 games in a row last season without Charles, their best offensive player. In doing so, they discovered that they had plenty of depth. Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin are the kind of one-two receiving punch teams envy, and second-year WR Chris Conley has the kind of deep speed to open up down-the-field pass possibilities for the Chiefs if they want to take them.

The defense isn't going to be 2015 Broncos good—almost no one is—but it still should be a deep and talented unit. As a rookie, corner Marcus Peters led the NFL in interceptions, interception return yardage, and touchdowns. Hulking nose tackle Dontari Poe is one of the toughest interior linemen in the game to keep a body on. Even without Houston, long-time incumbent Tamba Hali and former first-rounder Dee Ford give the Chiefs plenty of edge rush power. Adding Mississippi State lineman Chris Jones, who left a string of SEC guards on their asses on his way to the pros, as a second-round pick only makes the interior of their line more intimidating.

Looking for flaws on this team besides Smith, you really have to nitpick. The offensive line didn't take anyone's breath away last season, and they lost guard Jeff Allen in free agency, but grabbing right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, a Pro Football Focus favorite, from the Browns this off-season improves the unit overall. Sean Smith defecting to the Raiders could be cause for concern about the secondary, but the Chiefs can replace him with Peters and also still have free safety Eric Berry to make matchups easier in the back end.

Even the special teams are solid. Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub is a miracle worker: since 2006, not a single unit he's coached—first in Chicago and since 2013 in Kansas City—has failed to finish in the top ten in Football Outsiders' special teams DVOA.

Ultimately, as good as the Chiefs are, Smith is the fulcrum on which their season will swing. During their 11-game win streak last year, Smith showed more aggression than he ever had before under head coach Andy Reid. He almost had to, without Charles around to pick up the slack for the offense. Since being set up with Jim Harbaugh's 49ers, Smith has never been in as good of a situation heading into the season as he is right now. The Chiefs have a great team, a weak schedule in the AFC and NFC South, and a chance to run into home-field advantage in a down conference. From there, it would only be three games fighting uphill against better quarterbacks to a championship.

Does Smith have what it takes to take the Chiefs that far? That's what we're about to find out.

Want to read more stories like this from VICE Sports? Subscribe to our daily newsletter.