Taiwan Is About to Lose Another Ally to China

One of Taiwan’s dwindling list of allies is taking steps to establish diplomatic relations with China, a move that will further isolate the self-ruled democracy despite its deepening unofficial ties with the U.S.

In a tweet on Tuesday, Honduras President Xiomara Castro said she had instructed the Central American country’s foreign minister to open official relations with China. As Beijing considers itself the only legitimate government of China, including Taiwan, Honduras will have to cut ties with the democratic island if it goes ahead with the plan.

The pivot would give Beijing diplomatic bragging rights as it seeks to challenge America’s global influence, shortly after it asserted itself as a peacemaker by mediating a truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in a region where American power is waning.

“Beijing will be happy to frame this as a sign of its diplomatic clout,” Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist with the Taiwan Studies Program at the Australian National University, told VICE World News. But Beijing is unlikely to push hard to convert more of Taiwan’s allies at this time to avoid antagonizing voters on the self-ruled island as it heads for election season, he added. 

The switch will make Honduras the ninth country—after São Tomé and Príncipe, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Nicaragua—to pivot from Taiwan to China since 2016. The U.S. has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but maintains a robust economic and security partnership with the island.

Castro’s announcement came ahead of a sensitive meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a move meant to signal U.S. support for a democratic partner that Beijing hopes to eventually annex. Originally set to take place in the Taiwanese capital Taipei, the meeting will now likely happen in California to avoid the kind of Chinese backlash that followed the 2022 visit by former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island in August. 

Honduras’ switch will leave Taiwan with only 13 diplomatic allies—mostly small nations in the Pacific and Latin America, including Belize and Nauru.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry expressed serious concern to the Honduran government and warned it not to “fall into China’s trap.” China’s only goal is to “shrink our country’s international space,” it wrote in a statement on Wednesday, urging Honduras to consider its decision carefully. 

China said it welcomes Honduras’ decision. Establishing relations with China on the basis of the One China principle is the “right choice,” foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters on Wednesday. 

The succession of small countries recognizing China speaks to the pull of the country’s economic might. Castro had promised during her 2021 election campaign to embrace China in order to tap into the resources, economic opportunities, and coronavirus vaccines Beijing offered, although she later backtracked on the pledge after taking office in January last year. Earlier this year, envoys from China and Honduras met to discuss China’s potential investment in a hydroelectric dam in Honduras. In response, Taiwan expressed “grave concern” that Honduras would sever its ties with Taipei.

Taiwan could lose another ally next month, depending on the results of the presidential election in Paraguay. While the current president, Mario Abdo Benitez of the Colorado Party, recently visited the island to reiterate their alliance, Efrain Alegre, the main opposition candidate, has pledged to recognize China instead in the hope of exporting beef and soy to the Chinese market.

Experts, however, said a domino effect from Honduras’ move is unlikely. “It’s potentially a bargaining move, and its impact will likely be only limited at this juncture,” said Sung of the Australian National University.

“[The] Taiwanese [government] is probably more focused on strengthening U.S.-Taiwan relations, including advancing a bilateral trade accord, than gaining or losing another diplomatic ally,” Sung added. 

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