FYI.

This story is over 5 years old.

Sports

The Broncos Almost Go For It At the Trade Deadline

The Broncos made one trade and almost pulled off a blockbuster. Will they regret not acquiring Joe Thomas?
Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

It's an annual tradition at this point that the NFL trade deadline produces maybe two or three minor trades. NFL personnel and coaches tend to believe in the depth that they've accumulated, and tend to downplay the idea that there's a difference-making trade out there.

Proponents of a conservative trade deadline approach can take heart that recent results have proved them right. The 2011 Carson Palmer trade to Oakland led the Raiders to the middle of nowhere. Two years later, Indianapolis sent a first-round pick for running back Trent Richardson. It was a move that was baffling at the time, baffling now, and will be baffling to future generations of people who watch NFL Network top-10 shows.

Advertisement

Read More: Division Swing Factors Revisited, NFC

Yet the Denver Broncos, one of three undefeated teams, actively tried to improve their roster right before Tuesday's deadline.

Even if the Raiders went on a complete tear, it would take a catastrophic collapse for Denver to not make the playoffs. Most general managers would take this opportunity to sit on their laurels. But John Elway spent Monday and Tuesday trying to make his team the favorite in the AFC. He brought in tight end Vernon Davis from San Francisco. He nearly brought in All-Pro tackle Joe Thomas from the Browns.

To be specific, Browns were asking two 1st-round picks for OT Joe Thomas. They won't get that.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)November 3, 2015

The reported demand is almost laughable if you believe in what happens to the average old tackle. Thomas is highly-paid (four years and nearly $40 million left on his deal) and even good tackles start to decline fast when they hit 30. Former Tennessee star Michael Roos went from one of the best tackles in the NFL to retired in the span of two seasons. Thomas, 31 in December, is probably in the twilight of his career.

But Thomas is also ridiculously good. When former Stanford OL Ben Muth writes about the Browns offensive line, he doesn't even bother talking about Thomas. ("I'm not sure Joe Thomas gave up a pressure all day, but that's almost expected at this point.") If anyone was going to wreck an age curve, it'd be Thomas.

Advertisement

And Denver's offensive line took another hit with rookie second-rounder Ty Sambraillo heading to injured reserve. Fellow star tackle Ryan Clady tore his ACL early in training camp. Denver was already starting journeyman Ryan Harris at one spot. With Sambraillo out, this team is at late 2000s Colts levels of asking Peyton Manning to cover up a bad line.

The pieces seemed to come together, and the teams were apparently rushing to complete a trade before the deadline. But they couldn't agree in time.

Browns & Broncos rushing to beat the NFL trade deadline that will send LT Joe Thomas & a 4th pick in '16 to Denver for a 1st/2nd in '16

— Dianna Marie Russini (@diannaESPN)November 3, 2015

Thomas could have had some impact on playoff seeding, and that has value. But as a one-year proposition, you're bringing in Thomas to impact what you hope could be three games and in reality could be as few as one. Thomas is more valuable than most tackles his age, but reliably predicting him to be a superstar in 2016 takes some wishcasting.

Is that worth a first-round pick? That sort of depends on how well you hit the pick. A cost-controlled star for five years isn't worth Joe Thomas. A cost-controlled average back of the first-round pick, someone like Texans edge rusher Whitney Mercilus, probably is. It sort of depends on the strength of the scouting and the overall depth of the draft.

I don't think Elway is crazy to have considered this trade seriously. It doesn't have the same sort of blow-up risk that the Oakland and Indy trades had. Denver is going to have a hellacious defense for a long time, but they may only have a few more shots with Peyton Manning.

A revitalized Vernon Davis could be an important cog in the Broncos' playoff run. Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

I see the Vernon Davis trade in the same way. Davis has had a poor recent statistical track record because Jim Harbaugh emphasized his blocking, and the current 49ers emphasized becoming a shitshow. To be able to get an athletic freak of a tight end that could bloom in a new environment for only late Day 3 picks is a no-brainer move.

The Broncos almost did something even bigger than that with Thomas. I like the aggression. I will never fault a general manager for trying to think outside the box and for trying give himself the best chance he can to win a title. But with all the recent failures of GMs betting big — the two big trade deadline moves we mentioned earlier, the Phil Emery Bears, the current Saints — I'm more and more sold that you can win a trade deadline by not doing anything.