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Climate Change's Impact On Food Prices May Be Worse Than We Thought

In case you hadn't guessed by all of the photos of withered corn crops, the extreme droughts wracking the nation's heartland this year are going to raise food prices. And since climate change means more extreme weather events, the cost of food is going...

In case you hadn’t guessed by all of the photos of withered corn crops, the extreme droughts wracking the nation’s heartland this year are going to raise food prices. And since climate change means more extreme weather events, the cost of food is going to continue to rise. While that comes as no surprise, a new report from international development charity Oxfam states that previous estimates have understated the coming boom in the cost of food.

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According to the report, previous studies of the effects of climate change on food production focused on gradual, long term effects. But the major factor in production volatility is the frequency of extreme events, which have a far more immediate impact on the food supply.

World food prices are already expected to rise as a larger population pushes demand higher, and climate change is expected to increase those prices further. Oxfam’s baseline models suggest that the average cost of the world’s staples (corn, wheat, and rice) could more than double by 2030, with between a half and a third of those increases due to climate change. But Oxfam predicts it will get worse:

On their own, these structural price rises could spell disaster for many people living in poverty. But on top of this, the modelling also offers a snapshot of how extreme weather events could compound the impact on prices. While prices could double by 2030, the modelling suggests that one or more extreme events in a single year could bring about price spikes of comparable magnitude to two decades of projected long-run price increases.

Oxfam notes that its own estimates could be conservative because, among other things, they didn’t go beyond 2030 when climate change-induced extreme weather is only likely to increase, and didn’t include potential human responses to food shortages and price spikes, like panic-induced hoarding.

Oxfam’s report is self-published, as is the norm for NGOs, so it’ll be a bit until we see how the numbers stand up to peer review. However, the trends it presents are nothing new: food is going to get more expensive as the weather gets more unpredictable, which spells trouble for the world’s impoverished people who spend the vast majority of their income on sustenance. Looks like we can’t get that 3D-printed steak fast enough.

Image via CBC

Follow Derek Mead on Twitter: @derektmead.