Welcome to the second edition of VICE Sports College Football Bowl Projections of 2015, our best educated guesses as to where schools will end up this postseason.
As always, a few things to remember:● These projections are based on what we think will happen at the end of the year, not what would happen if the season ended today.
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● The College Football Playoff committee selects the top four seeds and places the top seed in the semifinal game closest to their campus. This year, the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl host semifinals.● The committee also places teams in the Fiesta and Peach bowls. The Rose and Sugar bowls technically choose their own replacements, but they will rely heavily on the rankings.● Outside the Playoff and New Year's Six, bowls sometimes have to pick based on conference standings but mostly are allowed to put together their favorite matchups, so long as the teams fit within an event's tier. For instance, in the past, the Citrus Bowl got the second Big Ten pick and the Outback Bowl got the third. Now the Citrus, Outback, and Holiday bowls are all equal in the Big Ten 2-4 tier.● If a bowl runs out of eligible teams for its conference tie-in, it can look elsewhere.● This might be the first year there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams (finishing with at least a 6-6 record) to fill out the total bowl lineup. If that happens, teams that finish 5-7 can be chosen. What a time to be alive!
What the Playoff Committee feels like when you're a Big 12 fan. Photo by Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
With that out of the way, our latest projections:BowlDateMatchupTie-insNational ChampionshipJanuary 11No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 AlabamaPlayoffOrange (Playoff)December 31No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 AlabamaPlayoffCotton (Playoff)December 31No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Notre DamePlayoffFiesta (New Year's Six)January 1
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Oklahoma State vs. Michigan StateAt-large vs. At-largeRose (NY 6)January 1Iowa vs. StanfordBig Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1Sugar (NY 6)January 1Oklahoma vs. FloridaBig 12 1 vs. SEC 1Peach (NY 6)December 31Navy vs. BaylorAt-large vs. At-largeAlamoJanuary 2TCU vs. USCBig 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2CactusJanuary 2Kansas State vs. WashingtonBig 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7LibertyJanuary 2Texas Tech vs. KentuckyBig 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8TaxSlayerJanuary 2North Carolina vs. GeorgiaACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8CitrusJanuary 1Michigan vs. LSUBig Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2OutbackJanuary 1Northwestern vs. ArkansasBig Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8BelkDecember 30Duke vs. Ole MissACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8BirminghamDecember 30Houston vs. MissouriAAC vs. SEC 9HolidayDecember 30Wisconsin vs. UtahBig Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3Music CityDecember 30Penn State vs. TennesseeACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8ArizonaDecember 29Akron vs. San Diego StateC-USA vs. MWCArmed ForcesDecember 29Central Michigan vs. Air ForceBig Ten vs. MWCRussell AthleticDecember 29Florida State vs. OregonACC 2 vs. Big 12 3TexasDecember 29West Virginia vs. Texas A&MBig 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8MilitaryDecember 28Louisville vs. MemphisACC vs. AACQuick LaneDecember 28NC State vs. Arizona StateACC vs. Big TenFoster FarmsDecember 26Indiana vs. Washington StateBig Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4Heart of DallasDecember 26Arizona vs. Middle TennesseeBig 12 7 vs. C-USAIndependenceDecember 26Virginia Tech vs. AuburnACC vs. SEC
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PinstripeDecember 26Miami vs. IllinoisACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7St. PetersburgDecember 26South Alabama vs. Old DominionAAC vs. C-USASunDecember 26Pitt vs. UCLAACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5BahamasDecember 24Marshall vs. OhioC-USA vs. MAC 4/5HawaiiDecember 24Tulsa vs. BYUAAC vs. MWC/BYUGoDaddyDecember 23Bowling Green vs. Georgia SouthernMAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2PoinsettiaDecember 23San Diego State vs. BuffaloMWC vs. ArmyBoca RatonDecember 22Temple vs. Western MichiganAAC vs. MACPotatoDecember 22Toledo vs. Utah StateMAC 2 vs. MWCMiami BeachDecember 21Cincinnati vs. Louisiana TechAAC vs. C-USACamelliaDecember 19Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas StateMAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3CureDecember 19South Florida vs. UL-LafayetteAAC vs. Sun BeltLas VegasDecember 19Boise State vs. CalMWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6New MexicoDecember 19Rice vs. NevadaC-USA vs. MWCNew OrleansDecember 19Appalachian State vs. Southern MissSun Belt 1 vs. C-USA
Lose to these guys, and you can cancel your New Year's Eve plans. —Photo by Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
And now, our explanations:● We had Notre Dame in the Playoff before the committee had the Fighting Irish in the top four, and we're sticking to it. Notre Dame beats out Oklahoma by passing the critical "didn't lose to Texas" test.● The Pac-12 is essentially out of the Playoff. I wouldn't be shocked to see USC beat Stanford, but for right now, I'll go with the Cardinal in the Rose Bowl.● We wrote this last time: "The Big 12 is going to beat itself up again. Imagine that!" It's still true.● The Big Ten is going to have a lot of trouble filling spots. Minnesota needs to win out against Illinois and Wisconsin, and that's not happening. Nebraska needs to beat Iowa, which could happen, but the Hawkeyes will be favored. Illinois needs to beat either Minnesota or Northwestern. Indiana needs to win out against Maryland and Purdue. We have Illinois and Indiana getting to 6-6, but there could be a lot of empty Big Ten spots with three teams in the Playoff/New Year's Six.● Our favorite projected non-major match-ups: Michigan-LSU, Indiana-Washington State, Florida State-Oregon, Bowling Green-Georgia Southern, Temple-Western Michigan, and West Virginia-Texas A&M.
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