The Raptors Are the East's Last Best Chance to Upset the Cavs

Despite their struggles during the second half of the season, and despite the fact that they did not wind up with the No. 1 seed, the first round of the 2017 playoffs showed that the Cleveland Cavaliers are still the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs defense made things more difficult than they had to be against the Indiana Pacers, but Cleveland ultimately dispatched Indiana in a four-game sweep whose final scores made the series appear more competitive than it actually was.

The question now is whether any of the three other remaining teams in the East have what it takes to unseat the defending champions.

The Boston Celtics may be the top seed, but their struggles against the Chicago Bulls—before Rajon Rondo went down with a fractured thumb—were very familiar to anyone who's watched the team lately: rebounding, and an inability to generate offense through anyone not named Isaiah Thomas. While the Bulls weren't able to pounce on the small Celtics lineup, the Cavs have shown over the years that they're able to (a) go small themselves and outscore even the best scoring units; or (b) stay big and punish them on the glass.

The Washington Wizards, meanwhile, looked like they were going to blow the Hawks out of the sky for a minute there—until they went on the road for Games 3 and 4 and reaffirmed that they're often an entirely different (worse) team away from the Verizon Center. Washington reasserted control in Game 5 and especially Game 6, but not before reminding us that their defense was just as bad as Cleveland's during the second half of the year, that their core players beyond John Wall and Bradley Beal are still prone to bouts of inconsistency, and that their bench can suddenly look like garbage (and that was before losing Markieff Morris during a Game 1 loss to Boston). If your defense doesn't show up against Cleveland, you can forget about a series win; the same is true if you can't manage to take advantage of the scant few minutes where any combination of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, or Kevin Love are on the bench.

Which leaves the Toronto Raptors, who will square off against Cleveland in the second round starting later tonight. While their offense was stifled by the Milwaukee Bucks for the better part of four games in Round 1, the Raptors also showed why they're the best bet to actually knock off the Cavs. It's all about flexibility—especially on defense.

Thanks to pre-trade deadline deals for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker earlier this year, the Raptors have the ability to play big or small, or even stay "big" with a small-ball group on the floor. Ibaka is a natural four-man who can also slide to the center position, creating space with his jumper on one end of the floor (39.8 percent from three on 4.5 attempts per game with the Raptors after the trade) and eating it up on the other. He's always been fleet footed and able to cover a lot of ground, and though he didn't look quite as agile in Orlando, the spring has been back in his step since he was shipped up North.

Tucker, meanwhile, is an annoying motherfucker in the best possible sense of the word. He makes everything difficult for the league's best forwards, and he can easily slide between the three and the four as well.

With both those players on the court next to Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors can slide in any fifth player they want and have enough size, speed, shooting, and defense. Want to play big? Use Jonas Valanciunas and let him go to work in the post. Want to play small? Throw Cory Joseph out there and let these guys run the floor. Want to find a way to split the difference? Try flexy, stretchy big man Patrick Patterson or physical, athletic freak Norman Powell, whose insertion into the starting lineup in place of Valanciunas prior to Game 4 of the Bucks series swung the result Toronto's way.

For most NBA teams, the decision to go big or small entails a trade-off: sacrifice shooting in pursuit of defense, or vice versa. That's not the case for the Raptors, though. They had the NBA's fourth-best defense with Ibaka and Tucker on board after the deadline, and they played most of that time without Lowry, one of the best point guard defenders in the league. They then had the second-best defense behind only the Warriors during the first round of the playoffs. Their offense only ranked 13th after the deadline, but again, they were without their best (or second-best, depending on your perspective) offensive player for all but five games. More concerning is that they struggled offensively during the Milwaukee series until the tail end of Game 4.

When you're going up against a team that features the best player in the world (that James guy), two more in the league top-20, and an army of shooters, it's important to keep up. You can't have the kind of extended lapses the Raptors experienced against the Bucks; if you do, you're done. Cleveland's offense is just too good, even against the best defenses in the league.

Lucky for Toronto, the Cavaliers' defense has been a disaster for months. The Cavs ranked 25th in defensive efficiency after January 1, and 29th after the All-Star break. This team has shown that it can dial things up to a new level in the postseason, but, well, let's just say that did not come close to happening in Round 1. Cleveland yielded 111.0 points per 100 possession to an Indiana team that scored just 106.2 per 100 during the regular season. Basically, the Cavs' defense turned the Pacers into the Rockets.

If the Pacers could score consistently, what does that mean for a much better offensive team like the Raptors? Lowry and DeRozan should each have consistent offensive advantages working against Irving and J.R. Smith or Iman Shumpert, who seem likely to draw the DeRozan matchup while LeBron saves his energy for offense by chilling in DeMarre Carroll or Norman Powell's general vicinity. Toronto can space the floor with their shooting bigs and create wider driving lanes for their stars. These things could all work out in their favor and put them in position to keep things close.

The thing is, it sure seems like all of those things and more—Tucker bothering LeBron; Carroll not getting smoked before Tucker has a chance to put in work; a gimpy Lowry sticking with Irving; Valanciunas not getting played off the court as soon as he enters the game—have to work out in the Raptors' favor for them just to have a chance. The Cavs have waxed the Raptors whenever they've been even remotely engaged over the last couple years. Those were the switch-flipped Cavs, though, and that team hasn't shown up on the floor in quite a while. If the light stays off, the Raptors could turn this into a real series.

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