The Knicks Are Bad Because They Were Never Actually Good

The past few weeks have come as a revolting surprise to New York Knicks fans. Once among the NBA's darlings following a 14-10 start, the franchise has fallen off a cliff in the past month, tumbling from third place in the Eastern Conference all the way down to 11th.

One person who doesn't seem all the shocked by New York's current plight is 21-year-old wunderkind Kristaps Porzingis. In the aftermath of Saturday's 123-109 curb-stomping at the hands of the Indiana Pacers—the Knicks' seventh loss in their last eight games—Porzingis put things into the perspective. The real reason for his team's slide, he said, is that it was never actually that good to begin with.

"I think in the moment where we were four games up over .500—I said it, I don't see ourselves as that good of a team yet," Porzingis explained. "We were still growing. We were winning games. But we don't really have that—we still have a lot to learn as a team, a lot to grow."

Porzingis' assessment was echoed by many in the NBA nerd community, who argued that the Knicks' start was mostly a mirage. Even at 14-10, they had the point differential of a 10-14 squad. Optimistic New York fans tried to counter with cries of, "If you take away this blowout loss … and that blowout loss … and this other blowout loss," but the truth was that all those ass-whoopings were more representative of the club's overall play than its 9-5 record in close games.

Looking at New York's offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and defensive rating (points surrendered per 100 possessions), it's clear that the Knicks haven't played that much worse as of late.

The defense was a pile of dog poop during New York's hot start, and has simply mouldered into a slightly stinkier pile. The offensive drop-off has been more pronounced, as the Knicks have dropped from above average (as high as 12th in the league at one point) to below average.

So who are the 2016-17 Knicks, really? They have an unbalanced roster—heavy on centers, light on point guards—at a time when the league is trending in the other direction. They employ quite a few offense-first players who aren't particularly efficient. They went all-in on expensive veterans during the offseason, yet carry more rookies on their roster than any other team in the league.

Most importantly, they're a team whose best player is 21 years old and in his second season. Porzingis has taken that mantle from Carmelo Anthony, who has failed to build upon last year's fine all-around performance. Anthony has been virtually unplayable on defense, too old and too slow to chase around today's small-ball NBA wings. He's still a quality player on offense, but with Porzingis now approaching Melo's per-game scoring average (20.1 points vs. 22.1 points) on a much better effective field-goal percentage (.526 vs. 473), his clear superiority on defense can no longer be ignored. Porzingis is "the guy."

And what's so bad about that, really? There are plenty of franchises who would love to be led by a young unicorn, the kind of mythical beast who can battle surefire All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo to a standstill, as Porzingis did in Friday night's win, while providing one of the most mind-blowing sequences of the season:

Porzingis hits a 3-pointer. Then blocks Giannis twice at the rim. And then hits a 3 from 30 feet.
Seriously. — Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer)January 7, 2017

Problem is, teams led by second-year players rarely make the postseason. A normal franchise might be able to accept a slow transition from an aging star to an up-and-coming youngster, but the Knicks are far from normal. Team president Phil Jackson threw caution—and logic— to the wind last summer when he traded for former All-Star Derrick Rose and signed former All-Star Joakim Noah to a big, fat contract. It was dumb then, and it will remain dumb regardless of what happens the rest of this season.

The Great Rose Experiment was looking pretty swell when he was nailing a decent percentage of those impossible floaters and push shots he loves so much, but now those shots aren't falling, and the results have been ugly.

DRose's last 6 games: 26p on 28 FGA
20p on 21 FGA
21p on 23 FGA
18p on 15 FGA
15p on 18 FGA
12p on 14 FGA LMFAOOOOOOOOO

— Marcus The Virginite (@EGLeBron)January 7, 2017

Rose averages more shots than Porzingis on a per-36-minute basis, he's not much of a passer—4.5 assists per game—and he has been benched in favor of undrafted rookie Ron Baker in each of the past two games.

Over the Knicks last two games: Derrick Rose is a net minus-9 in 53 minutes. Ron Baker is net plus+30 in 24 minutes.

— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer)January 8, 2017

As for Noah, he has actually been rounding into form of late, yet hasn't really helped the Knicks win games. He's also blocking the second-most promising youngster on the team, rookie center Willy Hernangomez. Which cuts to the heart of the Knicks' big problem: The front office overestimated the cards they already had, and bet more than they should have on immediate playoff contention. Last summer wasn't the right time to go all-in on an expensive veteran playoff push; it was a time to keep building, slowly and patiently, around Porzingis' future.

With the NBA trade deadline rapidly approaching, New York won't be able to fold this hand. Noah and Rose are all but untradeable, and Anthony has shown no indication of waiving his no-trade clause. As such, the only real play is to let it ride. The Knicks still can contend for a playoff spot—the team isn't without talent, and the East is just that crappy. Perhaps New York will come together and learn to defend. Maybe Noah will continue to improve, and Rose will once again start hitting some shots. Stranger things have happened. The one thing Jackson shouldn't do is double down on the present at the expense of the future. Outside of Porzingis, the current Knicks simply aren't worth the investment.

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