Rudy Gay Can be Found Money for the Right Team

According to The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears, Sacramento Kings forward Rudy Gay plans to opt out of his $14.2 million player option and become an unrestricted free agent this summer.

It's intriguing news. Gay declared his distaste for the Kings organization last year, preemptively announcing his plan to leave before the season even started. But then he tore his Achilles in January, obscuring his financial future and narrowing his options.

Gay is reportedly on track to resume basketball activities in June, just in time for potential suitors to catch a glimpse of how he looks before any official offers can be made in July. Per Spears, he won't rule out a return to the Kings, but it feels like that ship has sailed. As a rebuilding organization that has finally (hopefully) committed to patient baby steps in the right direction, Sacramento would be foolish to commit more years and/or dollars to someone who turns 31 in August.

That doesn't mean Gay isn't good or useful in the right situation. Quite the contrary. In over 1000 minutes, Sacramento actually outscored its opponents when he was on the court last season. Considering the only other King with a positive net rating was Langston Galloway, who only played 375 minutes, that's a legitimate accomplishment.

Also, only 10 other players in the entire league averaged at least 18 points while shooting over 45 percent from the floor, 37 percent from deep, and 85 percent from the free-throw line. All 10 are really freaking good.

In addition to his torn achilles, Gay may also need to overcome a bias against his allegedly anachronistic playing style. The analytics movement that ran parallel with his prime repudiated Gay's strengths and crucified his weaknesses. He parodied the exact type of player metric-obsessives despised: a high-volume chucker who preferred long twos over threes, rarely passed, and didn't excel as a defender or on the glass.

Gay could rip the rim off its hinges and his turnaround deserved a picture frame, but he was always more thrilling to watch than to analyze. Advanced numbers correctly tore him to shreds, and it didn't help matters when the Memphis Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors were both clearly better off after they shipped him away.

But over the past few years, Gay's shot distribution has steadily migrated to areas of the floor deemed acceptable and en vogue by the league's better teams. His True Shooting percentage hit a career-high mark last year, in large part because "only" 26 percent of his attempts were outside the paint and inside the arc—down from a whopping 34.6 percent five seasons ago.

The only year his three-point rate was higher than last season was 2008, when Gay started at small forward on a terrible Grizzlies team that featured a small army of paint-clogging big men.

Gay can't rely on cloud-hopping athleticism forever, and any desire to expand his career as a meaningful contributor requires him to evolve as a threat from beyond the arc and inside the paint. That doesn't mean he needs to abandon long twos altogether, because that very skill is still useful in a league where defenses welcome the sight of a mid-range pull up.

But how he gets those shots is important if he wants to blend in without disrupting a new team's flow. Here's a look at how the percentage of his possessions that were isolations changed from season to season, and team to team, over his career, according to Synergy Sports.

Memphis 2007: 19.2 percent
Memphis 2008: 22.5 percent
Memphis 2009: 25.4 percent
Memphis 2010: 25.5 percent
Memphis 2011: 25.0 percent
Memphis 2012: 21.4 percent
Memphis 2013 - Toronto 2013: 17.1/19.9 percent
Toronto 2014 - Sacramento 2014: 24.3/17.2 percent
Sacramento 2015: 17.5 percent
Sacramento 2016: 15.4 percent
Sacramento 2017: 12.0 percent

This necessary shift reflects both a changing league and an adaptable player. In order to finally impact games in myriad ways, Gay diversified his attack and became a more contemporary weapon. He's even started to move the ball a little more, and showed how dangerous he can be when operating as a playmaking four in small lineups. (38 percent of Gay's minutes were at power forward last season, which is the highest of his career, up 34 percent from his first year with the Kings.)

All this is wonderful, but doesn't answer whether or not a team with over $14 million in cap space and a desire to win sooner than later will be interested. If we're to assume Gay may struggle to recoup that $14 million in the first year of his next contract, it's possible—though not necessarily likely—he'll accept less money on a one-year deal if the right situation calls for it. (That means a winning environment where he can produce for a playoff team and improve his reputation before he hits the market next summer in search of more guaranteed money.)

If this is the case, Gay should be able to comb through several options. The most intriguing is the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that doesn't possess any cap space but may have the $8.4 million full mid-level exception at their disposal. Sliding in as their starting power forward, Gay would provide a bit more variance to complement Russell Westbrook's one-man show.

The Washington Wizards would love to bring him in at that same price tag, if they can. Best-case scenario, Gay is the missing piece their bench sorely needs and lights enough fireworks to push Washington into next year's Finals. Unfortunately, it's unlikely Gay takes less money to average fewer minutes, but that situation, for one year, could be perfect as he feels his way back from a serious injury. (Gay is also from Baltimore, and nothing reshapes someone's stature like postseason success.)

Assuming Danilo Gallinari opts out of his contract with the Denver Nuggets, Gay can be a solid stopgap in their starting lineup. Pending what the New York Knicks get in return for Carmelo Anthony if/when they trade him, same deal over there—as well as the Atlanta Hawks, should they lose Paul Millsap in free agency.

The Boston Celtics may take a look, but their sights are on rising stars that better fit their timeline. The Miami Heat can be the incubator Gay needs if nobody else is willing to take their money.

There are no guarantees for Gay, or whichever team adds him—especially those that would be hard-capped, like the Thunder and Wizards, for using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But the risk may be worth the reward. Consistent, professional scoring is hard to find, and through an unexpected circumstance, Gay may be on the cusp of a renaissance if he's willing to sacrifice.