The Tactical Guide to Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Johnson

Lightweight has traditionally been considered the deepest and most talent rich division in mixed martial arts. The UFC can own every heavyweight of even marginal note and even those in the top ten will fail to impress fans, but in even B-level promotions you will be able to see a couple of lightweights who impress you and seem to deserve their chance 'in the mix' of the UFC's most chaotic division. Through his incredible PRIDE Bushido run, Takanori Gomi was considered the lightweight number one but even after PRIDE was dissolved and the UFC was the unrivalled leader in mixed martial arts, most MMA websites' lightweight rankings contained a couple of outsiders. From the WEC graduates (Benson Henderson, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone), to Strikeforce alumni (Gilbert Melendez, Jorge Masvidal, Josh Thompson), to Bellator's 155ers (Michael Chandler, Eddie Alvarez, Will Brooks), there has always been someone fighting their way up outside of the UFC who would make for a great addition to the UFC's shark tank.

When another promotion's lightweight champion gets his shot in the UFC, the hardcore fans shiver with anticipation. For the 'PRIDE never die' crew, there is the chance to hammer home the idea that the UFC is not the be all and end all of MMA. For the 'Zuffa zombies', there is the prospect of laughing at those alternate MMA fanboys when their alternate champion loses his Octagon debut. With World Series of Fighting's lightweight undefeated champion, Justin Gaethje set to make his UFC debut next Friday against Michael Johnson, there are doubtless some hoping that this will be the first step of a destructive run through the division, and others hoping Gaethje's momentum comes to a sudden halt. Of course, when you're talking about the deepest division in MMA, nothing ever works out cleanly. Both the WEC's final lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis, and long-time Bellator champion, Eddie Alvarez lost their first fight in the Octagon—yet both went on to win the UFC belt.

Thriving Amid Chaos

There are fighters who appeal to something primal within the viewer. Think of Matt Brown in the middle of his welterweight tear, ferociously walking down his opponent and hammering them with whichever limb was closest. Justin Gaethje has that magic, and through World Series of Fighting's run he was the main reason to tune in. Entering MMA as an accomplished wrestler, Gaethje found out he has the gift for starching people and hasn't looked back. His style can be ugly, and primitive, and he gets hit way more than a fighter of his talent should, but the results speak for themselves. In his ten fights under World Series of Fighting, only one opponent made it the distance.

What makes fighting so unique is that there is no right or wrong way to fight. You can get hit too much, which Justin Gaethje definitely does, but if you are landing the more telling blows and winning the contests, that method is working. Joe Frazier got hit a lot, but he knocked a lot of men out and won the world heavyweight title in the process. The thing is that those fighters who do get hit a lot in the course of their fights tend to age worse than the less active, defensively savvy types who perhaps pick up less knockout victories. In interviews Gaethje has reflected on the risks of his style and seems to at least play lip service to the 'get in, get rich, get out' philosophy that keeps fighters hungry and prevents them from hanging around into their forties, suffering sadder and sadder defeats.

When you sit down to watch a Gaethje fight is actually quite easy to forget about the human aspect because he seems like a force of nature. Pressure is what creates knockouts for offensive fighters. Sitting back and looking for counters is great, but it is hit and miss once you start meeting men who know that that is your intention. Pressure is a reliable way to create finishes because it forces the opponent to fire back, opening himself up in the process, and simply being on the back foot and rushed at all times is a very effective means of wilting a man. There is scientific pressure—coming forward and looking to avoid most of the damage while countering as the opponent lashes out, think Mike Tyson or Julio Cesar Chavez, or Rafael dos Anjos in mixed martial arts, and there is a more primitive pressure, just coming forward, swinging big, and grinding on your man when he hits a surface: that's Justin Gaethje.

It is rare that you will see someone with as many low kick stoppages, or fights which ended as he swarmed on a limping opponent. Gaethje pounds in the right low kick with reckless abandon, but there is some science there. Gaethje's best kicks are often timed as counters on, or after an opponent's jab. Many fighters will toe their lead foot in on the jab as they blade their stance slightly to reach, without even realizing, this makes it a perfect time to buckle their leg inward.

Gaethje's kicks bring us to the position from which he does much of his best work: along the fence. While Gaethje can hit decently with his left hand, most of the time it serves the job of stiff arming his opponent or holding the collar tie. Stiff arming is almost universally undervalued in martial arts: a straight arm braced on the right part of the body can hinder a great deal of offence. We discussed this ahead of Holm vs Rousey—a great classical (and illegal) way to keep an advancing fighter away from the inside is simply to stiff arm their face to buy time before circling off.

You will notice in the above highlight just how much time Gaethje spends along the fence either pushing his opponent's head as he loads up on his right hand, or holding them in with the collar tie as he digs with uppercuts. It seems primitive, but even Lennox Lewis would do this when he was allowed to—see his fight with Frank Bruno for a good amount of stiff arming before the referee prevents him. Anthony Johnson was also ferocious from this position, I'm sure most readers will remember him stiff arming Little Nog's face and hammering in uppercuts as Nogueira pushed his head back into them.

It is along the fence that Gaethje does some spectacular work with his low kicks. Few fighters have checking low kicks on their mind while fighting in a clinch, and while another man is pushing you around it is hard to get on one leg comfortably anyway. Anderson Silva used to dig in the odd low kick while holding a collar tie, but as a damage dealer the clinch low kick is one of Gaethje's money strikes.

Being a former division 1 wrestler, Gaethje still hits the takedowns but often uses them for damage and style points more than position. Big slams have been a constant feature of Gaethje's career. Gaethje has also shown masterful use of that Chad Mendes principle—setting up the uppercut with the takedown attempt. Mendes will use level change to get his man to throw their hips back and bring their head forward, then pop them in the jaw from underneath. Gaethje often grabs hold of a leg only to release it and bring that same hand up the centre.

An interesting thought which struck this writer while reviewing Gaethje's tape regards Gaethje's defensive porousness out in the open, and his reliance on catch-and-pitch counters. We mentioned Joe Frazier earlier, Frazier fought much of his career half-blind and often couldn't see the punches coming: relying instead on a cross guard and constant head movement. With the thick glasses that Gaethje wears in any media appearance it makes you wonder how much of an effect his vision has on his defensive shortcomings and his decision to go to catch-and-pitch counters. Catch-and-pitch is typically what fighters go to when they aren't able to react to the punches fast enough, or are having trouble distinguishing feints from legitimate punches. When catching and pitching, the fighter feels the strike on his guard and then immediately fires back.

The best slip-and-rip counters I have seen Gaethje hit came as he backed off and invited the opponent to step to him, the majority of Gaethje's best counters have come out of the hands high, eyes down bull guard. Gaethje will take blows on his guard or forehead and try to time his return—often he isn't even looking at his opponent when he launches his counter. Of course, there could be any number of reasons for Gaethje to prefer this style of countering—the important point is only that he does.

This brings us to the man hoping to ruin Gaethje's party, Michael Johnson. Despite his relatively unflashy game, Johnson might be the perfect man to do it. Johnson is fast southpaw whose style largely consists of movement and straight hitting, with the odd snappy low kick thrown in.

If you know anything about Johnson, you will know that he is game. Footage of Johnson's rough sparring sessions with Nieky Holzken and Robin van Roosmalen makes it clear that he isn't one to hold back out of respect for an opponent's credentials. Van Roosmalen might be a smart sparring partner for this fight as his close range low kicks are his best weapon.

Johnson has also shown himself to be adaptable. The tools remain the same—the straight punches, the quick trades, and the skip up right low kick—but he can play the part of the bull or the matador quite comfortably. Johnson floated around the cage against Gleison Tibau, fought out in the open against Dustin Poirier and so many others, but applied pressure beautifully when he needed to against Edson Barboza. Johnson's constant forward motion in that fight kept Barboza from kicking comfortably and exhausted the Brazilian over three rounds.

Hypothetical Gameplans

For Justin Gaethje the gameplan is likely to be the same as it always has been: move forward and hit the opponent as hard as possible, preferably against the fence. It would be good to see him using takedown attempts to accomplish this—not just feinting takedowns to set up his punches, but actually ducking in on Johnson's hips and physically moving him to the fence. Johnson's feet are usually neat and he move laterally after each engagement, he can also stop a takedown decently. Khabib Nurmagomedov got Johnson to the fence by shooting on him, getting sprawl on, and simply bulldozing through until Johnson's feet hit the fence. Using his wrestling chops off the bat might save Gaethje from having to cut the ring on an opponent with neater feet than he is used to.

Gaethje might also want to keep the low kicking conservative—Palomino caught him with a hard right hand during a low kick and other opponents have caught him on one leg too. Gaethje has also thrown himself to the floor with poorly timed knees and flying knees. While it would be a surprise to see Johnson looking for the takedown, fighters at this level won't typically just let Gaethje get away with the kind of errors he could scramble out of in the lower leagues.

The level change uppercut and overhand might well prove themselves Johnson's downfall as he does commit his weight and hands to dealing with shots. Against Gleison Tibau these reactions were very apparent.

For Michael Johnson's part, he seems like the perfect man to show up the defensive shortcomings of Gaethje in terms of style. Lateral movement and straight punches are the skills which typically show up the forward plodding banger. Gaethje's ring cutting hasn't seemed anything too special but it is one of those skills which you only really get to see if the opponent is competent at circling off the fence to begin with.

Johnson's left straight to the body is an understated punch which might make a world of difference in this bout. Gaethje can take a shot but stands square and often raises his forearms high to form a guard, this makes his centre line and particularly his solar plexus more of a target for the left straight. While it is not good to look too much into sparring sessions, Johnson's left straight was one of his most effective strikes against Nieky Holzken, who in turn is a forward moving pressure fighter who covers up with a high guard. While feeding Gaethje straight punches down the pipe seems a sound idea, the left straight to the body is one which will stick with him and wear on him through the rounds of this twenty-five minute fight. Part of the genius of pressure fighting is that the opponent lashes out wildly at the pressure fighter's head, often forgetting the body entirely. Finding effective body shots can make the constant forward movement more exhausting for the pressure fighter than the man being pressured.

Whether Gaethje's first fight in the UFC is a bust, or whether he becomes an overnight sensation as a result of this performance, he has a catalogue of phenomenally entertaining fights behind him already. In an interview with MMA Fighting, Gaethje used the metaphor of a car crash to describe fighting, insisting that he wanted to enter the crash with more force so the other guy came off worse. Watch the glorious pile up and get back here for the breakdown after the fight.