Eight Early Games That Will Shape the 2016 NFL Playoffs

With the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, millions of football fans are presently getting ready to wildly overreact to every Week 1 score, performance, and result. By December, we'll have completely forgotten these wild late-summer days. By then we'll be cautiously eying tiebreakers and doing exotic calculus to figure out how teams can either claw back into the playoffs or shut the door on those doing the clawing.

At the end of the day (or season), though, wins and losses mean just as much in the first few weeks as the last few. Eight early September contests will have a huge impact on December races. These are the games worth some extra attention.

Week 1: Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

The Bengals have pulled off a rare feat in the modern NFL, making five straight postseasons with the same nucleus of homegrown talent in quarterback Andy Dalton, receiver A.J. Green, defensive tackle Geno Atkins, and a deep offensive line and defensive secondary. They've also flopped out of the playoffs every time, which means pressure is mounting to make an AFC title challenge before all their young talent gets old.

The Jets fell just short of the playoffs last season; this year they're all in. This matchup could be the difference between either team winning their division, earning a Wild Card berth, or staying home. The game could even set up a January rematch. Don't miss it.

Week 1: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Divisional matchups are the centerpiece of the NFL schedule, so including this game feels like cheating. But with the NFC East as wide open as it is, the timing makes this game especially special. The Giants overhauled their wretched defense and returned a lot of offensive talent, but they were still a step or two behind the Cowboys this off-season—until Tony Romo's injury, that is.

While rookie sensations Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott might hit the ground running, it's more likely they'll be slowed by their first taste of real NFL defenses. If Eli Manning and Odell Beckham can do their thing, the Giants could snag a vital division win on the road while the Cowboys are still getting up to speed. The rematch is in Week 14, after Romo's scheduled return, so this is the best chance the Giants will get to take control of the division.

Week 1: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Back in the AFC, we have the opposite of Bengals/Jets: instead of two well-known quantities searching for a decisive edge, we have two teams with a ton of question marks trying to establish a baseline.

The Ravens suffered through a rash of brutal injuries last year; now their returnees have to re-establish themselves as playoff-caliber starters. On the other sideline, Bills head coach Rex Ryan is likely coaching for his job this season. A strong road showing against a quality opponent would set the tone for the rest of the year; a sloppy or halfhearted effort from the Bills could make Ryan a dead man walking. Either way, both teams would hate to be on the losing side of this in-conference contest.

Week 2: New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

If the Giants lose in Week 1, this game will feel like a must-win. If they win Week 1, this game will still be a crucial step toward positioning themselves for (at least) a Wild Card bid.

The Saints refuse to go away. Despite an ill-conceived Frankenstein's monster of a defense that was part 3-4, part 4-3, and fully awful, Drew Brees and company still comprised the league's most prolific passing attack last season. That eighth-ranked scoring offense kept the Saints on the edge of contention despite that disaster of a defense. If the Giants and the Saints both get a little better on defense, they could easily be racing each other for the last NFC Wild Card spot in December. If so, this game will be the deciding factor.

Week 2: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

The Broncos lost only four games last season, including the playoffs. Now they're relying on the untested Trevor Siemian to fill the massive hole left by Peyton Manning's retirement. After a Super Bowl rematch with reigning MVP Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers to start the season, Denver could very well go into Week 2 still looking for its first win. For Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, a road win in Denver would be a massive step toward getting back on top of the AFC South.

Week 2: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

In theory, the Bears have the makings of a playoff team: gifted quarterback, great young receiving corps, and a rebooted running game featuring a stacked offensive line. In reality, they're likely no better than No. 3 in their division.

The Eagles finished 7-9 last season, but it was the depressing kind of 7-9 that feels much, much worse. That's why they cleaned house with the front office and coaching staff, realigned the defense, and massively overhauled the quarterback position. Philly could be better, worse, or just about the same as last year, and I wouldn't be shocked either way.

So what happens when these two enigmas meet on Monday Night Football in Week 2? Must-watch television, that's what.

Week 3: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Texans head coach Bill O'Brien will face his old team armed with the one weapon Bill Belichick won't have: his starting quarterback.

Defensive ace J.J. Watt and his developing wingman Jadeveon Clowney should both be healthy for the game, giving O'Brien every chance of going into New England and pulling out a massive in-conference win. If the Texans are going to defend their AFC South crown, they're going to have to capitalize on this rare chance to upset the Pats.

The Pats and Jimmy Garoppolo will likely be desperate to avoid going 1-2 before hosting the Bills in Week 4.

Week 3: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

These two teams, both division title winners last year, offer a perfect test for each other. The Vikings won't be able to keep pace with Newton if the quarterback they acquired last weekend, Sam Bradford, isn't effective. Meanwhile, the 2016 edition of the Panthers defense isn't nearly as stout—on paper, anyway, which is all we know now—as the 2015 version: the secondary is missing two of its top three corners from last year. Carolina will have to keep a lid on Minnesota's passing game without much help from a front seven that will be selling out to stop Adrian Peterson.

It's almost always a challenge to repeat as division champions; whichever team comes out on top in this game will have a much better shot at pulling off the feat in 2016.

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