Of the difficult questions the Toronto Raptors must answer this offseason, the biggest one, the one that stands to shape the direction of their franchise for years to come, is not entirely theirs. Kyle Lowry will become an unrestricted free agent in the coming days, and it's his choice whether to leave or stay—assuming the team wants him—that hangs over everything, the first domino in a complicated chain of decisions the Raptors have to make this offseason.
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Should Lowry want to stay, the Raptors then have to decide whether they, too, want to continue the relationship and keep trying to compete with this core. There is a reasonable argument to be made that the Raptors should take a major step back regardless to maximize their chances at winning a championship down the line. There are no right or wrong answers or opinions in the tear-it-down-for-a-title vs. stay-good-and-entertaining debate, so if Lowry stays, you can argue either way.If Lowry opts to leave, though, there's little sense in running things back. Retaining Serge Ibaka is financially plausible but would stand to more or less cap the team out with a much lower ceiling and little recourse of replacing Lowry, either by position or by talent. The Raptors face a tough call with Lowry and the core in general because they risk getting stuck in the middle, and that's an even greater certainty with a DeMar DeRozan-Ibaka core. That group probably tops out around 45 wins and one playoff series win, and the financial flexibility gained by letting Lowry walk isn't enough to see this group growing to substantially more. Lowry is the team's ceiling, and the tank-or-compete decision is made substantially easier if he leaves.It's by no means a certainty the Raptors will go this route, and you are justified in hating the idea or loving it—this is a visceral, philosophical question with an answer that will vary by perspective—but if the Raptors were to tear things down, here's what it may look like.
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Lowry Walks
The Other Free Agents
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Who might want him is complicated, and Raptors fans dreaming on a top-five pick in return probably need to recalibrate. Magic Johnson wants a star to build the Los Angeles Lakers around and Nike would surely love a player who modeled himself after Kobe Bryant while growing up in Compton returning home to take over not just Bryant's team but also his sneaker legacy. But DeRozan isn't a tidy fit with head coach Luke Walton's style and the Lakers already have a few young guards they're building around (and, if they keep their pick, could draft another in June). Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, and the Knicks are all varying degrees of interesting, and if the Raptors floated his name, there would surely be offers.
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Trading one of the best players in franchise history is tough. DeRozan is too good to keep, though, in terms of assets left on the table and because he'd raise the team's level of play too high to truly tank.Toronto could try to trade pretty much whoever isn't nailed down and young, but the options are fairly limited. Cory Joseph could be dealt easily but is still just 25 and on a good deal for at least one more year. DeMarre Carroll's contract becomes less burdensome if the team isn't in the tax, and it might make more sense to try to let him rebound rather than using the stretch provision on him in this case. Jonas Valanciunas might still be deemed superfluous given the other centers on the roster, and at 25 and with some theoretical untapped upside could have a market. But his value is probably at a nadir with the center market as flooded as it is, so he, too, might make more sense as a hold.The Raptors already have seven players on their first contracts plus a pick incoming. They would probably want to keep at least two or three of their remaining veterans around as culture-builder and stop-gap minutes-eaters, at least while their value is rehabilitated.
With just shy of $20 million in potential cap space, and substantially more if DeRozan was dealt without taking significant salary back, the Raptors could take a flier or two on younger free agents with upside. This summer's market isn't exceptionally flush, and the Raptors wouldn't want to tie up too much money with a handful of players hitting restricted free agency in 2018 (including Norman Powell), but they might not keep their powder dry entirely.Among names who would fit the timeline, aren't centers, and have some degree of upside depending on the price, are Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Snell, Tim Hardaway Jr., Shabazz Muhammad, Andre Roberson, Joe Ingles, and a bunch more. The RFA class is pretty deep, though it obviously comes with complications and the ability for other teams to match offer sheets.
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And there's Dion Waiters. Obviously.Whether or not the Raptors will trust head coach Dwane Casey to carry out their "culture reset" is somewhat unclear. There's more of a case to be made for it if the Raptors are staying competitive. If they're tearing down and rebuilding, it may make sense to shift in another direction with a fresh voice with player development experience. Whether that's someone on the staff (Nick Nurse or Rex Kalamian), an outside hire, or the promotion of Jerry Stackhouse following an immensely successful season with Raptors 905, the coaching chair would almost definitely be under evaluation. Taking the chance on Stackhouse, who is going to be an NBA head coach one way or another at some point, would seem the best path in a rebuild.