What You Need to Know If You're Staying Up Tonight to Watch the US Election

Unless you're among the 12 percent of Brits who say they would vote for Donald Trump if we were allowed to participate in the US election, you're probably quite concerned that America might be about to turn into a pseudo-fascist state run by a billionaire demagogue. If you're a British Muslim, you might also be quite worried that you potentially won't be able to visit the US anytime soon.

These high stakes mean more Brits than usual will be staying up late and watching the American presidential election results come in on Tuesday night. If you're one of them, here's a few key things you should know.

Unlike in British elections, Americans are happy to declare who has won states and even who will be president before all the votes have actually been counted. As the ballots are tallied the public are updated in real time as to how each candidate is doing, and it's the news networks that "call" a state for a certain candidate (they also sometimes get this wrong, as in the 2000 election). Sometimes you also have weird moments where Fox News has called a state for one candidate but CNN says it could still go either way.

In the last two elections, viewers in the UK have been relatively lucky. In 2008, Obama was declared president at 4AM UK time, but even by 2AM it seemed like McCain didn't have a clear path to the White House. In 2012, it was basically all over by 4AM, when Obama won Ohio, although there was some weird stuff where Republican strategist Karl Rove was on Fox News basically denying the result, and so that held things up a bit until 6AM, when Romney conceded the election.

This year, we might not be so lucky. Firstly, depending on which poll aggregation site you trust, this election looks like it could be closer than the last few. According to opinion poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina are basically toss-ups, meaning they will have to count more votes before the states are declared, and may even have to recount votes if the result is very close. FiveThirtyEight reckon there's a nine percent chance that at least one state will have to recount votes.

The other thing is that while the networks can declare a winner whenever they feel they have enough information, the election isn't really over until the losing candidate concedes and the winning candidate gives a victory speech – and, as we know, Donald Trump may well call into question the whole bloody thing:

Networks will still be declaring states from midnight, so if it seems like it's going to be close it may be better to set your alarms for an early start rather than staying up all night.

Absolutely do not watch election night on the BBC. Their coverage is sober, considered and cautious – precisely the opposite of what you want from this. Instead, flick over to CNN, where they treat the whole thing like Minority Report and the Superbowl mixed together, with hysterical screaming graphics and a sense of panic among the hosts.

Just look at this nonsense:

If you know your way around a VPN it might also be worth checking out Showtime, where Stephen Colbert hosts a live election broadcast. VICELAND will have VICE News updates throughout the day, and we'll be live-blogging the whole thing on VICE.com.

There only two viable candidates for President, but unlike, say, the Brexit vote, the US election isn't just a headcount of how many people voted for each candidate. It's not a straightforward popularity contest.

Instead, they use the "electoral college" system, in which each state is appointed a number of votes (equal to the number of seats in Congress they have, plus two). So while California has 55 electoral votes, Montana has just three. There are 538 electoral votes overall, and so each candidate needs 270 to win. It's not proportional, though; if Trump wins Florida 51 percent to 49 percent, he gets all of Florida's votes. (There are a couple of states that have more complex systems, but don't worry about that right now – this is a quick how-to, not Year 9 Citizenship.)

Just as there are "safe seats" in UK elections, there are certain states where it's pretty much already certain who will win. Oklahoma, for example, has voted Republican for the last ten elections. So candidates are only really concerned about swing states, where the vote could go either way, meaning – on election night – you just want to look out for which way the swing states go.

You'll hear a lot of chat about "the path to 270", but that's just the different combinations of states that a candidate needs to win the election. So, for example, one of Clinton's paths to 270 involves her winning Florida as well as all the states she's predicted to win easily. But there's another path where she loses Florida but still wins Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

There are a lot of different theories about which states are a "must win" for the different candidates, as there are lots of different routes to the White House. Most people agree that Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, is a must win for Trump. Others to look out for include Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia, volatile states where there are a decent number of electoral votes. Some states, like Arizona and Texas, are expected to go for Trump, but there is a small chance that Hillary might win in each of those if there's a big Hispanic turnout. If that happens, the Republicans are really screwed.

There are also races for the House (think the House of Commons), which the Republicans are very likely to keep control of, and the Senate (think the House of Lords, but way more powerful), which is too close to call. If Trump wins the election and the Republicans keep control of the Senate, it's a real end-of-days situation because they can basically rubber stamp all of Trump's Supreme Court nominations and it will be even easier for him to do whatever he wants. But let's worry about that on Wednesday.

@samwolfson

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