Finding the Silver Linings in the Leafs' Awful Start

No one said the process of rebuilding the Toronto Maple Leafs was going to be quick or easy, as retooling an entire organization back to respectability does not happen overnight. While some of the moves of the past year suggest that the club is at least trending in the right direction, the fan base may be impatient just 11 games into the new season.

They Leafs sit last in the Atlantic Division with six points. They can't score goals and they can't stop pucks from going into their own net at the worst times—despite Monday's surprising win over Dallas. While most seem to understand the position the Leafs are in, it's still a tough pill to swallow as the losses continue piling on. It's hard to emotionally invest yourself in a team you know isn't going to win. Embracing losing sucks.

Toronto hasn't played great, with the goaltending, special teams and goal scoring ranking near the bottom of the league under the guidance of new head coach Mike Babcock. The team has some obvious holes and no immediate fix, but it's not all bad news.

The Leafs have played more structured hockey under Babcock, which is especially impressive considering the tough task he has been handed. The roster lacks anything resembling a star player. There's no gamebreaker—a Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux or (ahem) Phil Kessel. The lineup is composed mostly of depth veterans who will probably get dangled or flipped at the trade deadline for as many draft picks as possible. Despite that, Babcock has done an excellent job with a relatively bare cupboard.

From 2012-15, the Leafs struggled mightily to keep the puck out of their own end, posting the second-worst Corsi for (shot attempts at even strength) at 44.5 percent. The team was routinely outshot and outplayed, allowing 33.6 shots against per 60 minutes (5v5) during that span, the worst rate in the NHL.

Under Babcock, the team's effort has been consistent and its been much more effective defensively. In a limited 11-game sample, Toronto has only allowed 29.0 SA/60 (+0.5 shot differential) and has managed to become a respectable possession team—ranking seventh in the NHL with a Corsi for of 51.9 percent. The improvement is personified by Tyler Bozak. Frequently maligned as a possession dumpster in recent years, he has emerged as a sheltered depth centre and is third on the team at 58.38 percent. Babcock is turning water into wine.

The team is actually producing scoring chances at a better rate than its allowing, a huge accomplishment considering the club's previous struggles doing so.

The Leafs' -1 goal differential at even strength isn't bad, but the special teams—both ranked among the worst in the league—are blowing up any progress they've made.

Goaltending has been spotty for the club, too. Jonathan Bernier has struggled with consistency, letting in some shaky goals at bad times. His .915 even strength save percentage is well off his .926 average from the last two seasons. James Reimer's .908 save percentage looks below average on the surface, but Toronto's unsteady special teams and his own problems on the penalty kill have cost him mightily, as he's posted a very good .943 save percentage at even strength. The team's .928 mark is just below league average. The Leafs' PDO (the combination of even strength save percentage and shooting percentage, a good indicator of luck) is 99.4, and it can improve, as the team has shown signs of progress. While the team just isn't very talented, it also hasn't caught many breaks.

Though the Leafs are struggling, the club's minor league affiliate, the Toronto Marlies of the American Hockey League, is softening the blow. They have shown a glimpse of what the future could be like in Toronto with several young prospects getting plenty of burn. The club is off to a 7-3-0 start, and it hasn't shared the troubles of the parent club with goals coming in bunches. William Nylander, the team's top draft selection in 2014, has found the back of the net five times in nine games and scored at a point-per-game pace. He's only 19 years old, and offers Leafs fans a glimpse into a happier future.

Other notable Marlies players include Brendan Leipsic, Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen, Nikita Soshnikov and Frederik Gauthier. Like Nylander, they could all be big parts of the Leafs plans going forward. For those down on the Leafs, take a ten-minute drive from the Air Canada Centre to Ricoh Coliseum to watch the Marlies—the tickets are much cheaper, as is the disappointment.

With a high likelihood that the Leafs' miserable record will continue throughout the season, there is at least the anticipation of landing a top pick in the draft and adding more talent to the improving core. With the lottery changes implemented, it's slightly more difficult to land the top pick, but finishing near the bottom still ensures the best odds. Leafs fans are already salivating at the prospect of landing Auston Matthews—this year's projected No. 1 pick who's tearing it up in the Swiss pro league. Falling in the top-three would also give the Leafs a shot at acquiring Sarnia's Jakob Chychrun or Sweden-born phenom Jesse Puljujarvi.

Watching a rebuild unfold night after night is a miserable experience, but Rome wasn't built in a day. The Leafs are going to be bad, but knowing that they're at least making strides in terms of player development and protecting the puck, there is a bit of a silver lining for Leafs fans. They are in excellent hands from a front-office perspective, now it is just a matter of riding this thing out and letting the team grow together.

To quote the British boy band Take That, "Just have a little patience."

Stats courtesy War On Ice and Hockey Analysis