MVP Race Shaping up to Be the Tightest in Years

At the conclusion of Wednesday's games, every NHL team will have played at least 41 contests. That means we can officially say we are halfway through the 2015-16 campaign, a season that already includes John Scott as an All-Star captain, Leo Komarov with 11 more goals than Jake Voracek, and Gary Bettman with a beard.

If Bettman's beard doesn't get at least a few Hart Trophy votes, then ban the PHWA from the awards process forever.

But since the sticklers at Ernst & Young won't acknowledge my votes for facial hair on a 63-year-old millionaire, perhaps it's time to turn my attention to players that are actually eligible to win a Hart Trophy in Las Vegas this June. It's never too early to start considering this, because it's shaping up to be a tight finish for the first time in a while.

The differences between first and second over the past three 82-game seasons in the 5-4-3-2-1 voting are as follows: Carey Price over Alex Ovechkin (610); Sidney Crosby over Ryan Getzlaf (463), and Evgeni Malkin over Steven Stamkos (875). The voting in 2013 was especially tight, which is probably a result of having to decide an MVP after a mere 48 games.

But deciding after 41 games… now that's just good writing.

I've narrowed it down to (sort of) five worthy choices in a wide-open field and examined what makes them great candidates, poor candidates and what has to happen for them to take home a Hart Trophy.

5. Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

Credentials: 24 goals (t-4th), 44 points (5th), 53.4% Fenwick, +1.1% relative

Why he should win: No one has scored a higher percentage (24 of 108, 22.2%) of his team's goals than Tarasenko, who has 11 more goals than his next-closest teammate. The Blues are entrenched in a playoff spot despite a negative goal differential thanks largely to Tarasenko. The 23-year-old is basically Rami Malek on Mr. Robot: a super-talented person from another nation carrying a mediocre cast (don't get me started on Christian Slater's win at the Golden Globes) to potential glory.

Why he won't win: He has an incredible resume but it's not only slightly less impressive than the other forwards on this list, it's also a step down from what he did last season. Alex Ovechkin is basically Jon Hamm so Tarasenko may have to wait until the Washington Capitals go off the air before he can win an award.

4. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, aka Jamyler Segbenn, Dallas Stars

Credentials: 49 goals (1st), 104 points (1st), 54.3% Fenwick, +3.36% relative

Why he should win: Segbenn has been the driving force behind the Stars' drive to the top of the West and dominant at even strength, as just 15 of those 49 goals have come on power plays. A 200-point season is within reach for Segbenn, a mark that has not been hit since Wayne Gretzky had 215 points for the Edmonton Oilers in 1985-86. Segbenn is having a season for the ages.

Why he won't win: My sources tell me that despite the fact that Seguin and Benn are irrevocably joined at the hip, PHWA voters are not allowed to combine their numbers into some sort of Voltron entry. Voters will not be able to separate each player's incredible season, which means the vote will be split between two players in a year where the vote will be spread out, anyway. The true tragedy here will be hearing this blamed on West Coast Bias when really it's all because science won't let us surgically attach two humans against their will.

3. Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers

Credentials: 19 wins (4th), 2.08 GAA (4th), .930 save percentage (2nd)

Why he should win: The Panthers are the NHL's surprising, feel-good story and Luongo is the biggest reason why people are surprised and feeling good. The Panthers are a pretty average team in almost every category and Luongo having his best year ever is why things look so great in Florida. These first two sentences really make me regret burning the Mr. Robot reference on Tarasenko.

Why he won't win: Luongo is 36 years old and about 10 points above his career mark in save percentage. The Panthers aren't much of a possession team. At some point, Luongo's numbers should return to Earth and the Panthers should level off, which means fewer wins and more goals allowed. It's also extremely rare for a goaltender to win a Hart like Price did last season, and Price's numbers far exceed what Luongo is doing right now. Also: Luongo thinks crying Jordan memes are funny, which should not only exclude him from MVP discussion but should get him a ten-game ban from the NHL.

2. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks

Credentials: 25 goals (2nd), 63 points (1st), 51.8% Fenwick, +1.0 relative

Why he should win: Kane is on pace for 115 points, which is like being on pace for 350 points (I don't understand era-adjusted statistics) back when there was offence in the NHL. Imagine wandering through a desert for years only to stumble upon an oasis, except the oasis is a five-star hotel/casino and David Bowie is alive, well, and playing a free show just for you in your Jacuzzi-equipped suite. That's the type of offensive season Kane is having.

Why he won't win: There's that whole, "Accused of sexual assault and the case was thrown out" thing. There are voters that won't put Kane on their ballot no matter how great the view is from the hotel room in the above metaphor. With so many worthy candidates based on on-ice performances (Ovechkin isn't even on this list, nor is Braden Holtby), it's very possible the votes won't be there for Kane no matter how many points he registers.

1. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

Credentials: 36 assists (2nd), 45 points (4th), 28:35 TOI (1st), 50.7% Fenwick, +7.9 relative

Why he should win: With Karlsson on the ice, the Senators are a formidable, playoff-worthy club; without Karlsson, Ottawa is a completely different team, and that team is the worst team in your beer league or any Edmonton Oilers team of the past few years. The Senators are on the fringe of the postseason and it's almost entirely because of Karlsson, whose 28 even-strength points are one more than Kane.

Have I mentioned he's a defenceman? Because he's a defenceman.

There isn't a single player in the league that affects his team in a positive fashion the way Karlsson does the Senators.

Why he won't win: Let me clear my throat for a second… HE DOESN'T PLAY DEFENCE OR KILL PENALTIES! Two things: 1) Karlsson actually has some pretty impressive shot suppression numbers and 2) there are a lot of great players that don't kill penalties, like Kane, Tarasenko, Seguin and Ovechkin.

Karlsson will likely be submarined by voters that are unable to get past the misguided idea that a defenceman must kill penalties to be a great defenceman. If not that, maybe the Senators miss the playoffs and god forbid an MVP be on a non-playoff team. Or maybe because he cut his hair or is too skinny.

Silly, right? It's just as silly as any other reason you wouldn't pick Karlsson as MVP, so you may as well tell people his short hair turned you off to voting for him.

Analytics from war-on-ice.com.