The Toronto Shooting Has Made Gun Control an Election Issue

The Danforth shooting in Toronto this weekend has accelerated discussions around gun control in Canada. By Tuesday night, the city council had voted overwhelmingly to demand the federal government step up and ban handguns from the city.

Even before last weekend’s murders, there were some indications that the Liberals and Conservatives were each planning to make gun policy a major plank in their upcoming election campaigns. Now, it’s likely inevitable.

So what can we expect in the coming political fight over gun control in Canada? We have a few clues already. The Liberals have already introduced new legislation (Bill C-71) that would mandate lifetime background checks for prospective gun owners, as well as require retailers to keep detailed records of customers, inventories and transfers for up to 20 years. Anyone buying a rifle or shotgun would also be required to show their gun license. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team have argued this makes it easier to keep guns away from e.g. domestic abusers; critics allege this is just a way to resuscitate the much-maligned long gun registry killed by former prime minister Stephen Harper in 2012. (In either case, there is scant evidence to suggest it will put much dent in gun crime.)

Apocalyptic depictions of Toronto à la Escape From New York from Joe Warmington notwithstanding, gun violence in the city is not at a record high. But there are inarguably more guns around than ever before. According to Tim Naumetz at iPolitics, firearms imports increased 79 percent in the four years after Harper axed the long gun registry. Two million guns were imported to Canada between 2012-2016, and a little more than 290,000 of these were handguns—an increase of 86 percent compared to the 2007-2011 period. And these are only the ones that are registered.

So now, in the wake of Toronto’s vote to ban guns from the city, Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale has signalled that the federal government is considering a ban on handguns.

If this alarms you as a firearms enthusiast, then the Conservatives are the party for you. Andrew Scheer’s CPC leadership platform focused intently on relaxing gun rules in Canada: it pledged to “launch a review of the criminal code and repeal (emphasis in original) all federal regulations pertaining to firearms ownership, usage and transportation which do not do the following: ensure that Canada’s firearms laws respect the rights of honest firearms owners, recognize the fact that hunting and sports shooting are an important part of Canadian culture and history, and empower police to concentrate on real criminals who are a threat to the public.” Among other things, this includes scrapping magazine restrictions, revoking the RCMP’s “arbitrary” power to reclassify guns as either unrestricted/restricted/prohibited (the RCMP denies this is “arbitrary”), and creating a Firearms Ombudsman. Although these policies disappeared from his website after he became CPC leader, Scheer reiterated his support for them earlier this year.

For his trouble, the Liberals have painted him as a shill for the gun lobby and allege that the Tories take marching orders from “Canada’s NRA.” This is mostly polemical but it is undeniable that a) the Tories are the Canadian gun lobby’s only horse in the race, and b) the gun lobby is thirsty as fuck. Last year someone from a CPC leadership campaign leaked the party membership list to Canada’s National Firearm Association, who then immediately emailed everyone on it and asked for money. Last Valentine’s Day—the same day as the Parkland shooting in Florida—Conservative MP Michelle Rempel got some fun gun swag gifts from her lobbyist friends in the Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights. (Rempel later returned the gifts after the video appeared online and prompted an ethics inquiry.)

Also, the NDP exists. Jagmeet Singh confirmed last March that his party supports the government on C-71. (He double-checked that answer with his caucus during the scrum, so we know it’s true.) More than their Liberal or Conservative counterparts, New Democrats actually have complicated feelings gun control in Canada. They straddle the urban core and rural hinterland of the country and so the poles of its gun debate. The downtown humanitarians echo Toronto Mayor John Tory when he asks why anyone in the city needs a gun at all, while every good rural Dipper understands that rifles and shotguns are tools like axes and chainsaws: dangerous, even deadly, but helpful in responsible hands.

The 2016 NDP policy book advocates “enabl[ing] all municipalities, provinces, and territories to implement a ban on handguns.” While this probably won’t win them any friends with the militant wing of the gun lobby, but it also won’t outright alienate rural food hunters with the same delight that the Liberals sometimes seem to take in it. And hey: who doesn’t love downloading all the real work onto the provinces!

It’s unlikely that we will see a handgun ban in Canada before the next election, so it is likely to become a campaign issue. Gun control advocates can rest assured that, by and large, Canadians support firm gun regulation. Writing in Policy Options, David Rotier and Elliot Gauthier found that 47 percent of Canadians feel that gun laws in the country are not strict enough, and that 62 percent of the country would support a ban on personal handguns. So there is a sizeable public desire for stronger gun restrictions in Canada. The only catch is that the gun control vote is split almost evenly between the Liberals and NDP.

But whether this is actually good news for the federal Conservatives is still an open question. It’s not clear that rural voters have been riled up by C-71 the way Harper got everyone hot and bothered over the long gun registry. It’s also more difficult to sell a handgun ban as an assault on rural heritage/rights; no one is hunting moose with a pistol. Plus, sobriety around firearms—as opposed to an All-American mania—is one of the hallmarks of Canadian smugness. Campaign against our moral superiority complex if you dare.

In the meantime, there are more police. There will always be more police.

Follow Drew Brown on Twitter.